Article/Han Wei, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader (WeChat official account kopleader)
Investors must understand that good investment performance is created by the joint efforts of good investors and good fund managers.
With the disclosure of the third quarterly report of the Fund today, the latest top 50 fund companies have also been released. The top ten fund companies have not changed compared with the end of the second quarter, but there are great differences in scale growth, some have decreased, some have increased by more than 10 billion, and the top three fund companies have topped the list with a scale of more than 200 billion.
Know yourself and your enemy, and you will never lose a hundred battles. In the process of selecting funds, the most common mistake at the "bosom friend" level is setting the wrong investment goal. Investors often set an unrealistic income target blindly without thinking carefully and understanding their investment term, risk tolerance and investment scale, thus planting the seeds of investment failure. Therefore, the primary task of investors is to know their own investment period. For stock investment, the longer the investment period, the lower the risk. Generally speaking, if you have invested in the stock index for more than 20 years, your return will be higher than that of bonds, and your risk will be lower than that of bonds; If the investment period is less than 5 years, investors with slightly poor risk tolerance are generally not suitable for investing in equity assets, unless they encounter such major investment opportunities as 2005 and 2014. Because, although investors invest in a valuable stock, the market may make mistakes beyond imagination for a long time. At this time, the stock price will be lower than the investment cost and there will be floating losses. If at this time, the stock is sold because of urgent need for money, it will cause losses. However, if there is no obvious bubble in the purchase price of the stock, and the holding period can reach five years, based on the accumulation of the stock's own value, plus the value gradually discovered by the market, the probability of its profitability will be very high in the end.
To analyze risk tolerance, it must be clear that the real risk is the actual loss of value investors when they reach the investment period, and the fluctuation of net value during the investment period is only the risk defined in academic theory. Investors must have a clear understanding of these two risks, which are different in nature, and make a correct judgment of their own tolerance for the two risks. Some long-term investors, unable to bear the theoretical risk of stock price fluctuations, unexpectedly Qingdao Haier 、 Guizhou Moutai , Vanke and Yili lost money.
Investors should set reasonable income targets on the premise of clarifying the investment period and risk tolerance. It must be emphasized here that the short-term return of the stock market fluctuates and jumps, which is very unstable. Investors must earn enough money in the bull market, or they will not reach the average return level of the index in the long run. Investors tend to set too high the income target of long-term investment, which leads to impetuosity, eagerness for quick success and quick profits, and are prone to fall into the trap of high risk and fraud. If the short-term return target is set too low before the bull market, good investment opportunities will be missed and even good fund managers will be excluded.
At the level of "knowing the enemy", the most important thing for investors in the process of fund selection is to fully understand the fund manager or investment team managing the fund. First of all, we need to see the long-term investment performance of fund managers. Investment performance less than five years can hardly explain the problem. Secondly, it is necessary to carefully evaluate the investment philosophy and investment strategies of fund managers. If the investment method has obvious errors in theory, or even significant defects in logic, no matter how good the historical investment performance is, it is just luck. In particular, some fund prospectuses are prepared by product designers and have nothing to do with the actual investment strategies of fund managers. In addition, it is also necessary to analyze the market capacity of the investment strategy, and judge whether good investment performance can be maintained after increasing the investment scale.
Finally, special attention should be paid to avoiding the wrong application of Sharpe ratio (the excess return rate of investment products on unit risk), fluctuation risk, maximum rollback and other analysis indicators. If these indicators are inappropriately applied, it will not only fail to select a truly excellent fund, but will instead regard Madoff or a fund full of subprime derivatives as a good fund. Someone estimated that the Sharp ratio of Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Company is only 0.76, which does not prove that Buffett's investment level is very ordinary. On the contrary, it just revealed that the fund evaluation methods commonly used by institutions such as Sharp ratio, information ratio and Treynor index are not only widely misused in the whole world, but also greatly mislead investors. The root is that in its evaluation criteria, the choice of return cycle is inconsistent with the investment strategy cycle, and the definition of risk in theory and practice is different. Fund portfolios based on target risk, risk evaluation and other strategies often mechanically use historical theoretical risks to replace future actual risks, which is tantamount to seeking fish from a log. The setting of maximum withdrawal and stop loss line is very necessary for high-frequency trading, technical analysis and arbitrage trading. However, the setting of maximum withdrawal and stop loss line for value investment funds is to punish themselves for the mistakes of others, which not only fails to achieve the goal of protecting the interests of investors, but also often leads to a situation of multiple losses in practice.
Investors must understand that good investment performance is created by the joint efforts of good investors and good fund managers.
(The author of this article introduces: famous hedge fund manager, Tsinghua MBA supervisor, vice president of Tsinghua MBA Alumni Association Financial Association, guest of CCTV2, and general manager of Hengfeng Taishi. With more than 20 years of professional experience as investment director of futures, securities, public offering and private funds.)
