Article/Ai Tangming, Chief Commentator of Sina Finance[ micro-blog ]
On red Monday, the tiredness of last Friday was reversed. Today's performance of A-share was the best in Asia Pacific, which finally made me feel proud!
The trading volume also increased significantly, indicating that the "Double 11" just passed did not divert the capital of shareholders, indicating that our shareholders are still rich, and pocket money is enough for shopping
However, today's market differentiation is relatively obvious. The amplified trading volume mainly goes to small and medium-sized stocks, so the GEM's volume rose 3.47%, and hit the highest closing point since October.
Small cap stocks led the rise. First, they continued the characteristics of last Friday. Second, the good news over the weekend was still mainly for small and medium-sized stocks, whether it was to support share repurchases or increase support for small and medium-sized enterprises. Obviously, small and medium-sized stocks were the main beneficiaries.
In addition, it has a lot to do with the reactivation of hot money after the management loosened its ties. From the perspective of hot sectors, not only the concept of venture capital continued to be strong, but also the theme concept stocks represented by Shell Resources and ST sectors, as well as many small and medium-sized sectors such as environmental protection, games, software, film and television, performed well.
In the recent "king of demon stocks" Hengli Industry On the afternoon, the trading limit board was sealed again, and the adverse market situation of the 12 board in 13 days was broken. The birth of demon shares is one of the signs of active hot money and market recovery. The demon shares are like a flag. The more the number of trading boards, the more encouraging the latecomers.
The main business of Hengli Industrial has been in a loss state for 14 consecutive years. According to the third quarter report of 2018 released by the company, although the company's performance turned from loss to profit, the non net profit was still negative, and the main business of the company did not improve significantly.
Therefore, Hengli Industry is also the leader of the backdoor concept. The CSRC has shortened the backdoor listing time of enterprises whose IPO has been rejected from three years to half a year, giving shell resources a chance to hype. Inspired by Hengli Industry, the concept of shell resources has become the biggest hotspot today. There are up to 50 individual stocks in the ST sector and 11 non ST stocks.
Including the grand occasion of trading of over 100 non ST shares today, they are basically speculation of hot money. In the case that the market has been dominated by blue chips since last year, this situation can be said to be long lost
The reason why hot money has been silent for a long time is related to the strict supervision in the past two years. However, everything has two sides. While purifying the market, strict supervision has also greatly reduced the liquidity of small and medium-sized stocks, leading to falling stock prices, which eventually led to a large-scale outbreak of equity pledge crisis.
The management seems to be aware of this problem. On October 30, the CSRC issued three statements, the second of which mentioned: optimizing transaction supervision, reducing transaction resistance and enhancing market liquidity. Reduce unnecessary intervention in the trading link, let the market have clear expectations for the supervision, and let investors have fair trading opportunities.
Hot money is always the most active and sensitive group in the market. The signal released by the management made the hot money smell the opportunity immediately, and the trial of Hengli Industrial is more like a trial of the management scale.
In the past, they would be held down immediately after a few trading limits, and enjoy the special stop treatment, but this time they did not. On November 8, after 11 consecutive trading limits, Hengli Industry received a letter of concern from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which only "required the company to explain the problems related to abnormal fluctuations in stock trading", and did not suspend trading.
This is also an important reason why Hengli Industrial was able to gain the 12th trading limit today and drive a large number of junk stocks to rise and fall. The return of hot money to the market is inseparable from the change in the attitude of regulators.
But this does not mean that hot money can be lawless, just like the Monkey King can never jump out of the palm of the Buddha. The reason why he indulges you now is that he needs you to activate the market.
If we can use hot money to stir up the stock price and resolve the crisis of major shareholders' equity pledge, we do not need the management to bail out. It not only solved the crisis, but also saved money, which can be said to kill two birds with one stone. Therefore, the management is more intelligent and hot money is more like a chess piece.
However, in any case, hot money seized the opportunity to create many hot spots and gave ordinary retail investors the opportunity to participate. It can be expected that this feature will continue in the future market, so we can continue to pay attention to the opportunities of small and medium-sized stocks and hot topics.
But how can hot money make money? Finally, we will harvest retail investors, so when we participate, we should always remember the risks. Although retail investors are at a disadvantage in terms of capital compared with hot money, on the other hand, this is also an advantage because they run fast. We should not only be good at sitting in the sedan chair of idle money, but also get out of the sedan chair in time before leaving. This is what smart retail investors should do!
Today's blue chip performance was flat, but the Shanghai Stock Exchange rebounded in the late 50s, which is a good phenomenon. Only after the February August rally can we go far. Tomorrow, we should continue to pay attention to two points, one is the sustainability of the GEM rebound, the other is the opportunity for blue chip to make up.
In addition, we should also pay attention to the surrounding markets. The dollar index rose 0.6% at one time in the afternoon, hitting a new high in the year, leading to a disguised devaluation of the global currency, and the offshore RMB fell nearly 200 points at one time. Therefore, we should also pay attention to the performance of foreign exchange and European and American stock markets in the evening to prevent fluctuations.
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(The author of this article introduces: chief commentator and senior investor of Sina Finance.)
