Article/Ai Tangming, Chief Commentator of Sina Finance[ micro-blog ]
Yesterday's cross star and today's T-star have received a very similar shadow line, which is a very typical trend of unwilling to fall
In fact, the intraday decline in the past two days is quite normal. Because there are bad news, the GEM and the registration system have the greatest impact on the GEM, so the intraday decline is also the largest.
After pulling it up yesterday afternoon, many people thought about it carefully at night. They thought it was still bad, so they chose to flee today. Today, there are nearly 20 individual stocks, most of which are sub new or high priced stocks, because their valuations are high and they are the most affected, which is right in logic.
However, the GEM, which had the biggest intraday decline in the past two days, turned red magically at the end of the day, with a very magical trend. Because at present, the most contradictory is the GEM. The recent intensive market rescue policy is most beneficial to small cap stocks, but the launch of the science and technology innovation board and the registration system is also the GEM with the greatest negative. The market situation in the past two days is a fierce game of good and bad on the GEM.
Judging from the trend, these two days are good and tenacious to resist the attack of bad news. After all, the Science and Technology Innovation Board will not be launched until the first half of next year at the earliest, and the recent intensive rescue policy will have immediate effect, which is equivalent to the short-term good over the long-term bad.
And why is it "unwilling to fall"? Because the market situation last week was so good, and there were so many favorable policies, we are too unwilling and unwilling to fall down now. The recent rebound has made everyone full of expectations for the dinner market at the end of the year, and bargain hunting has become an irresistible choice.
From the perspective of funds, there is a lot of funds entering the market recently, and there is still a batch of funds waiting to enter the market. Take ETF as an example. Many funds enter the market through this channel. Recently, ETF has become popular and product issuance has been queued for approval. Yesterday alone, the 50ETF of Hua'an GEM received 1.415 billion net subscriptions, increasing to 20.721 billion; Based on the net value of fund units of the day of 0.48 yuan, the net inflow was 683 million yuan, ranking first in A-share ETFs.
It doesn't mean that the purchase of ETF with this money will be over. ETF is a benchmark stock. For example, yesterday 683 million yuan subscribed for 50ETF on the GEM, so you have to convert them into GEM stocks, so it is not difficult to understand the bottoming and recovery of the GEM.
After these two days of ups and downs, the impact of the science and technology innovation board and the registration system has been almost digested. The bridge will return to the bridge, and the road will return to the road. Where you go, it is up to you.
As the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the registration system will not really exert their influence until next year, they will still have the foundation to launch the food market before the end of the year. However, after the news gradually calms down, the rest depends on the capital.
The recent trading volume has been very large, and a lot of funds have entered the market. It depends on whether the follow-up funds can keep up. In particular, the trading volume of SSE 50 today is less than half of that of last Friday. Foreign capital has also changed from net inflow to net outflow. Today, the net outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect reached 1.5 billion yuan.
Therefore, the trading volume will become the most important factor leading the future market, followed by the international market. The United States is about to enter the mid-term election. With Trump's love of doing things, there will be many uncertain factors, and we should pay more attention to them.
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(The author of this article introduces: chief commentator and senior investor of Sina Finance.)
