Article/Ai Tangming, Chief Commentator of Sina Finance[ micro-blog ]
From last week to yesterday, when there were still two trading days before the festival, it was finally deserted, and the effect of the long holiday still appeared. After all, the market is closed for five days. Compared with the Mid Autumn Festival, which is closed for only one day, the uncertainty is greatly increased.
In addition, it has been announced that A-share has become rich, and after the good cashing, there is nothing to look forward to, so many funds began to choose to pocket as security, which is the main reason for today's callback.
In fact, this can be predicted in advance. Yesterday's article mentioned this. No matter how to break the light routine before the festival recently, the last two days will still be light. In addition, the recent increase is relatively large, which has accumulated a lot of short-term profit taking. It is necessary to prevent the decline.
From the perspective of the market, there are few hot spots. There are only 17 stocks with trading limits, but the number of stocks with trading limits has reached 20. Small cap stocks have become the main force to kill and decline. Although both the morning and the end of the day blue chips took protective measures, they failed to stop the decline of small cap stocks in the end of the day.
Tomorrow is the last trading day, and the market is expected to be more light. Today, due to the emergence of a sell-off market in the Shenzhen market, it has been scaled up, and it should be scaled down a lot tomorrow.
There will still be some conservative funds flowing out for the purpose of risk aversion tomorrow, but it is expected that the overall market will not fall significantly. First, blue chips will still act to protect the market. After all, the festival is coming. It is the responsibility of the national team to create a peaceful atmosphere before the festival.
Second, a batch of funds have fled today, and what has not gone today may not go tomorrow. Although there will be uncertainty during the long holiday, uncertainty may be negative or positive.
Therefore, the question of "holding shares or holding currency for the holiday" is still involved, and it is impossible to give a unified answer to that point. Because the holiday news and the external market trend cannot be accurately predicted, it is impossible to predict whether the holiday will open significantly higher or lower after the holiday. Of course, if it is flat, there is no need to tangle, but the probability is small, unless everything is calm during the holiday.
It mainly depends on whether your investment style is conservative or radical. It is possible to open high or low, rise sharply or fall sharply after the festival. You can arrange positions according to your risk tolerance.
In addition, you should look at your position and stock situation. If you are covered, there is no need to cut meat before the festival. If you are profitable, you should look at the position weight. The position weight can also maintain the status quo. If the position weight is heavy and the style is conservative, you can reduce it appropriately to leave room after the festival.
Whether holding shares or holding currency, each has its own advantages and disadvantages. If the shareholding is excessive, it may profit from the high opening after the festival, or suffer from the low opening. Holding money for festivals may benefit from opening low or earn less from opening high. So God is fair. If you close a door, you will open a window.
If the holiday news surface and the external market are stable, the probability of continuing to rebound after the festival is relatively high. In recent days, I have been looking forward to the market in the fourth quarter repeatedly. The latest wave of rebound market actually started the market in the fourth quarter in advance. It means that the main funds can't wait for the end of the National Day holiday. They started to build positions in advance. Especially under the stimulus of nearly 5 billion yuan from foreign capital on a large scale last Thursday, domestic capital could not sit still and rushed into the market.
Today, there are also a lot of foreign capital entering the market, with a total net inflow of 3.15 billion yuan from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect. Therefore, if the blue chips continue to support the market today and tomorrow, it is not entirely the national team that is pulling, but it is also possible that domestic and foreign capital continue to layout the market in the fourth quarter in advance. Therefore, we should also take a long-term perspective and think ahead of time about the operations after the National Day holiday, so that you won't have to worry about holding shares or money.
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(The author of this article introduces: chief commentator and senior investor of Sina Finance.)
