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Gentle
Wen Bin: The Federal Reserve's attitude is more hawkish, and the expectation of interest rate reduction within the year is lowered to one time -- Comments on the Federal Reserve's interest meeting in June
There is still room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In the second half of the year, the dollar index may be more volatile, and most of the time it may fluctuate between 102-108.
Cheng Shi
Cheng Shi: Short term Recovery and Long term Mismatch -- Global Economic Outlook in the Second Half of 2024
In the second half of 2024, the global economy will continue to recover.
Although the recovery momentum is still strong in the short term, in the long term, the mismatch between global capital and labor factors is becoming increasingly serious.
Zhang Yu
Zhang Yu: Financial strength has support and hidden worries - comments on financial data in April
The peak of broad fiscal power is coming, and the data from May to September have three major supports
Zhang Yu
Zhang Yu: The "power game" of American finance and currency -- how to understand the increase of TGA balance
Recently, the TGA balance of the general deposit account of the Federal Reserve's Ministry of Finance rose again;
From a long-term perspective, the Ministry of Finance seems more willing to retain a higher TGA balance after the epidemic.
Xie Yaxuan
Xie Yaxuan: Japan's foreign exchange market intervention as a stopgap measure
Before the Federal Reserve began to loosen monetary policy or the Bank of Japan further tightened monetary policy, Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the yen exchange rate has always been an expedient measure.
Zhang Ming
Zhang Ming: How does Japan end its negative interest rate policy affect global financial markets
By the end of 2024, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is expected to rise to around 7.0.
Yang Delong
Yang Delong: How does this week's super central bank week affect the market trend?
Wait patiently for the market trend to recover, and don't pay too much attention to short-term market fluctuations
Jian Wang: How will the Bank of Japan survive after the bubble burst?
If the macro economy drops sharply, it may affect the banking industry in many ways, such as the negative impact of monetary policy easing on the net interest margin during the economic downturn, and the impact of the unexpected decline in corporate solvency on the quality of bank assets.
MSCI
MSCI: The annual research report "Progress Report on the Proportion of Women Directors" was released. Leadership positions are still dominated by men
Globally, the proportion of female representatives on the board of directors has improved globally, but the growth rate has slowed down, and there are differences in the growth rate in different regions. The leadership positions, including the chairman of the board of directors, are still dominated by men.
Philip Kenworthy
A silent debt crisis is engulfing developing economies with weak credit ratings
Some developing economies have finally seen the light at the end of the tunnel.
However, 28 developing economies with the lowest credit rating are still trapped in the debt trap, and there is no hope to escape in the short term.
Liao Qun
Liao Qun: The US Economy Seeking a Balance between "Controlling Inflation" and "Protecting the Economy"
The decline of the U.S. inflation rate will continue in 2024. Under the pressure of continuous and substantial interest rate increases, the U.S. inflation rate will fall rapidly in 2023, and will probably continue to fall to 2.5% or less in 2024.
Wang Tao
Wang Tao: RMB is expected to appreciate slightly against the US dollar in 2024
Affected by the marginal changes in the economy of China and the United States, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and the depreciation of the dollar, the RMB is expected to appreciate slightly against the dollar this year, but there is no particularly strong appreciation space, and it may depreciate slightly in the first quarter.
Cheng Shi
Cheng Shi: Global economy accelerates "soft landing"
The global economy is entering a turning point, with positive signals emerging. Inflation is slowing down and growth is stable, and the bottom of the cycle tends to ease.
Zhang Yu
Zhang Yu: Five Nodes and Three Stages for the Federal Reserve to Stop Scaling Down -- Series V of American Risk Detector
The process of the Federal Reserve's scale reduction can be divided into five nodes. The impact of the scale reduction on asset prices can be divided into three stages
Gentle
Wen Bin: The financial operation in 2023 will be generally stable
Looking forward to 2024, China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, moderately strengthen, improve quality and efficiency, and the overall fiscal situation will remain tight and balanced.
Cheng Shi
Cheng Shi's comments on the 2024 Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate meeting: the pace of interest rate reduction is expected to slow down
Substantial fiscal withdrawal will be the prelude to substantial interest rate reduction
Wen Bin, Li Xin
Wen Bin: The Federal Reserve hinted that it would not cut interest rates in March, and the discussion on reducing the scale has been on the agenda
The Federal Reserve is bound to slow down the scale reduction in 2024, and the scale reduction adjustment may even be earlier than the interest rate adjustment, but the scale reduction may stop completely by the end of 2024 or 2025.
World Bank
World Bank: The global economy has not yet turned around
With the beginning of 2024, the global economic outlook seems to be improving. However, "soft landing" is now becoming more and more possible.
Forty people forum
CF40: Summarizing the global macro situation: inventory in 2023 and outlook in 2024
In 2023, the world economy will stagger forward. According to the review and summary of international think tanks, experts and scholars on the important global events in 2023, the important events that determine the annual narrative include but are not limited to ten aspects.
Yang Delong
Yang Delong: The best way to remember Munger is to practice the concept of value investment
After Munger's death, we should pay more attention to some of Buffett's investment directions and ideas.
Despite the loss of Munger, I believe Buffett will continue to make value investment, become a good shareholder of the company, and lead the trend of global value investment.
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