Opinion Leader Zhang Yu
matter
four Monthly broad fiscal revenue year-on-year -6% ， three Month on month -5% ； four Monthly broad fiscal expenditure year-on-year -5.3% ， three Month on month -7.8% 。
Core viewpoints
1、 Financial power: support and hidden worries
1-4 In January, the financial force is temporarily two thousand and sixteen The slowest time since the statistics of (Growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure -2.3% ， 2019~23 In the same period of the year 19.8% 、 1.3% 、 0.3% 、 12.8% 、 1.7% ）。
We suggest that, The peak of broad fiscal power is coming, 5-9 There are three major supports for monthly data There are also two hidden worries:
（1） Support: debt volume, income recovery, low expenditure base
one Debt release: calculation 5-9 Monthly government bond supply is more or more close than the same period of last year one point six Trillion, nearly five Second only to two thousand and twenty Year（ +2.3 Trillion) , the increment is mainly special bonds (it is required to accelerate the issuance and use, +7300 100 million) and special treasury bonds (required to be issued as early as possible 5-11 Month, +7400 100 million); If all of them are converted into current expenditure, it may pull 5-9 Monthly growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure ten point four Percentage points.
two Income recovery: PPI Revitalizing or raising taxes （ 1-4 Comparable monthly tax increases only 0.5% ）， Land sales revenue 3-4 Monthly high base （ two thousand and twenty-three year four Monthly land sales revenue was basically flat two thousand and twenty-two The same period of the year).
three Low base of expenditure: last year 5-9 In June, the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure -5.3% （ 1-4 month 1.7% , all year round 1.3% ）。
（2） Hidden worry: diffusion of chemical bonds, accelerated decline of land sales revenue
one . The drag or deepening of the diffusion of chemical debt on the real financial strength 。 1-4 YoY net financing of Yuecheng Investment Bond -7500 Billion, which is close to the year-on-year decrease of special bonds in the same period (nearly nine thousand 100 million). At the end of last year, the market was mainly worried about twelve Key provinces of personalized debt; Since this year, The net financing of urban investment bonds has dragged down the majority twelve Provincial transfer to other provinces reflects the expansion of chemical bonds from key provinces to the whole country (High risk cities and counties) It remains to be seen whether the subsequent expansion can be resumed with the massive supply of government bonds.
two Land sales revenue accelerated to decline, highlighting the urgency of de stocking in the property market 。 four The monthly land sales revenue is two thousand and twenty-three year ten Maximum monthly decline（ -21.2% ， three month -18.7% ）It remains to be seen whether the subsequent de stocking policy can be hedged.
II four Monthly financial data review
Revenue side: The proportion of non tax income fell from a historical high.
Expenditure end: Over the excessively high base, it returned to high growth, and the additional treasury bond funds continued to form expenditure.
Broad sense finance : Land sales revenue dropped the most in recent half a year, highlighting the urgency of de stocking in the property market.
Risk warning : The issuance of government bonds exceeded expectations, the decline of inflation exceeded expectations, and the income from land sales exceeded expectations.
Report Contents
Report body
1、 Financial power: support and hidden worries
1-4 In January, the financial force is temporarily two thousand and sixteen The slowest time since the statistics of (Growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure -2.3% ， 2019~23 In the same period of the year 19.8% 、 1.3% 、 0.3% 、 12.8% 、 1.7% ）。
We suggest that, The peak of broad fiscal power is coming, 5-9 There are three major supports for monthly data ， There are also two hidden worries:
（1） Support: debt volume, income recovery, low expenditure base
one Debt volume: we calculate 5-9 Monthly supply of government bonds is more or less than the same period last year one point six Trillion, nearly five Second only to two thousand and twenty Year（ +2.3 Trillion) , the increment is mainly special bonds (it is required to accelerate the issuance and use, +7300 100 million) and special treasury bonds (required to be issued as early as possible 5-11 Month, +7400 100 million); If all of them are converted into current expenditure, it will pull 5-9 Monthly growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure ten point four Percentage points.
two Income recovery: PPI Revitalizing or raising taxes （ 1-4 Comparable monthly tax increases only 0.5% ）； Land sales revenue 3-4 Monthly high base (According to the Bureau of Statistics, two thousand and twenty-three year three From January, real estate sales ushered in the "Little Spring", three The sales area of newly built commercial housing in January was the highest in each month of last year. four The sales growth rate and sales area growth rate of new commercial housing in the month of January were last year twelve The fastest in a month; two thousand and twenty-three year four Monthly land sales revenue was basically flat two thousand and twenty-two The same period of the year).
three Low base of expenditure: last year 5-9 In June, the growth rate of broad fiscal expenditure -5.3% （ 1-4 month 1.7% , all year round 1.3% ）。
（2） Hidden worry: diffusion of chemical bonds, accelerated decline of land sales revenue
one . The drag or deepening of the diffusion of chemical debt on the real financial strength 。 1-4 YoY net financing of Yuecheng Investment Bond -7500 Billion, which is close to the year-on-year decrease of special bonds in the same period (nearly nine thousand 100 million). At the end of last year, the market was mainly worried about twelve Key provinces of personalized debt; Since this year, The net financing of urban investment bonds has dragged down the majority twelve Provincial transfer to other provinces reflects the expansion of chemical bonds from key provinces to the whole country (High risk cities and counties) It remains to be seen whether the subsequent expansion can be resumed with the supply of government bonds.
two Land sales revenue accelerated to decline, highlighting the urgency of de stocking in the property market 。 four The monthly land sales revenue is two thousand and twenty-three year ten Maximum monthly decline（ -21.2% ， three month -18.7% ）It remains to be seen whether the subsequent de stocking policy can be hedged.
2、 Comments on financial data in April
（1） Income side: the proportion of non tax income fell from a historical high
four Month, fiscal revenue year on year -2.7% （ three month -2.4% ）After deducting the special factors such as the increase in the base of tax deferred warehousing of small and medium-sized micro enterprises in the same period last year, and some tax reduction policies introduced in the middle of last year, the comparable growth 2% Left and right（ 1-3 Monthly comparable growth 2.2% Left and right).
In terms of tax revenue and non tax revenue, the proportion of non tax revenue fell from a historical high, and was driven up passively by tax revenue at the beginning of the year. four Monthly, tax growth rate -4.9% （ three month -7.7% ）； Non tax growth rate 5.8% （ three month 12.2% ）。 before Q1 The proportion of non tax revenue in public financial revenue hit a record high（ 19.2% ）, triggered market discussion, 1-4 Proportion of monthly non tax income 17.3% , lower than the historical high; The reason for the relatively high proportion of non tax revenue at the beginning of the year was that the weak tax revenue was driven up passively, rather than actively increasing revenue (Fig 7~9 ）。
In terms of tax categories, the main tax categories are weak, which, except for the impact of special factors, still reflects the price repression, and the individual tax returns to drag down by the base: Domestic VAT and corporate income tax, the two main types of taxes, drag down tax growth three Percentage points（ three Monthly drag four point eight Percentage points), except for special factors PPI The downturn and price suppression are expected to improve in the second quarter: individual income tax slows down tax growth zero point nine Percentage points（ three Monthly pull three point four Percentage points) ， Or reflect three After the monthly and annual bonuses were misplaced and put into storage, the influence of the base returned to the dominant position (the policy of raising the special additional deduction standard of individual income tax issued in the middle of last year raised the tail and reduced the income).
Property related taxes remain a drag, Drag down tax growth zero point zero four Percentage points（ three Monthly drag zero point eight Percentage points), and the decrease of land sales revenue is two thousand and twenty-three year ten Largest since（ -21.2% ）, partly affected by the high base of "Xiaoyangchun" in the same period last year, which also highlights the urgency of de stocking in the property market.
Transfer of foreign trade related taxes , driving tax growth zero point one Percentage points（ three Monthly drag three Percentage points), mainly due to the decrease of export tax rebate ( one Percentage points, three Monthly drag two point one Percentage points), import related taxes turn to pull (pull one point one Percentage points, three Monthly drag one Percentage points), verifying that imports exceeded expectations.
（2） On the expenditure side: the excessive base returns to high growth, and the additional treasury bonds continue to generate expenditure
In April, the public financial expenditure returned to a high increase (6.1%, March - 2.9%), or the high base pushed by the centralized settlement of epidemic expenses in Q1 of the past year.
In terms of the type of branch out, the expenditure related to additional issuance of treasury bonds is still outstanding: four Three monthly representativeness People's livelihood expenditure (Social security, employment, health, education) total drive the growth of expenditure one point two Percentage points（ three Monthly drag one point one Percentage points); Infrastructure expenditure (Urban and rural communities, transportation, agriculture, forestry and water) drive expenditure growth in total one point five Percentage points（ three Monthly drag zero point nine Percentage points), of which, Urban and rural communities, agricultural and forestry water growth Not up to 8.5%, 11.8%, Reflect that the additional treasury bond funds continue to form expenditure. Expenditure on science, technology and environmental protection Total growth of expenditure one point three Percentage points（ three Monthly drag zero point nine individual Percentage points).
（3） Broad sense finance: the largest decline in land sales revenue in recent half a year, highlighting the urgency of de stocking in the property market
In April, the growth rate of government fund income continued to decline (- 18.2%, March - 15.9%), mainly because the income from land sales since October 2023 Maximum decrease （ -21.2% ， three month -18.7% ） ， As mentioned above, partly affected by the high base of "Xiaoyangchun" in the same period last year, it also highlights the urgency of de stocking in the property market; Growth rate of broad fiscal revenue fell for the fourth consecutive month （ -6% ， three month -5% ） , which is expected to benefit from two forces: PPI back Warm or raise taxes, de stocking the property market or improve the subsequent land market performance.
The growth rate of government fund expenditure continued to decline June 2023 New low since （ -35.9% ， three month -23.3% ）In addition to the low expenditure on land sales revenue arrangement, the slow issuance of special bonds at the beginning of the year slowed down the growth of broad fiscal expenditure（ -5.3% ， three month -7.8% ） 。 From May Benefiting from the accelerated issuance and use of special bonds and the early issuance of special bonds, the broad fiscal expenditure is expected to accelerate significantly.
(The author of this article is a researcher from the International Monetary Research Institute of Renmin University of China.)
