Article/Tan Minglei, columnist of Sina Hong Kong (WeChat official account xlgg sina)
Before the interconnection, Hong Kong shares lacked both leaders and money. Now, the allocation of funds from the south to Hong Kong shares is basically normal, and on the contrary, the fund problem is less worried than before. At least it is generally included in index stocks, and its liquidity remains stable. However, it is worth investors to study where the profitable sector leading the bull market in the future comes from.
The policy floor of A-share has been set up, and the market floor seems to be forming in an orderly manner. How about Hong Kong stocks?
In 2017, the bull market of Hong Kong stocks drove many individual stocks to enjoy high prices. From cars to real estate, to science and technology networks, to education, mobile phone industry chain, secondary new stock sectors, etc., as long as everything can be speculated about, people will be very excited. By the end of 2018, Hong Kong shares had fallen into a headless dilemma.
Tencent's share price has dropped by 40% from its high point. You can't even imagine it in the past few years. Maybe it is getting closer to the stop falling position. But even if it stops falling, where is the driving force for the stock price to rise? No, In my opinion, it is only a rebound at most, and most stock prices are still overvalued. Perhaps this is also the reason why foreign capital bought hundreds of billions of A-shares all the way in the mainland through interconnection in the previous stage, which turned out to be indifferent to the Hong Kong market.
When we count the weight plates of Hong Kong stocks, we find that it is almost difficult to see greater opportunities in the short term.
The third quarter report of HSBC had a good performance, but due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase, Sino US trade relations and other factors, the main force did not dare to go too far, and the fluctuation within one point a day was not enough to lead; The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has lagged behind in the bull market, and the stock price has been repeatedly repeated in the bear market. It is difficult to launch a wave of quotations for Hong Kong stocks based on the daily trading volume; AIA and Ping An, China The stock price of the Hang Seng Index fell by nearly 8000 points after all, and these two stocks still outperformed the Hang Seng Index. But the over-the-counter funds will think, I am going in now, and the price is not the same as that of the Hang Seng Index at 30000 points? I'm full and full.
Since the beginning of the year, Geely has led the whole auto sector to decline. Look at the sales volume in the third quarter, you will know how big the future business challenges will be; The share prices of Evergrande, Rongchuang and Country Garden, the three carriages in the real estate sector, are roughly horizontal. Under the guidance of the strict control policy in the mainland, "houses are used for living, and stocks are not continuously speculated". Even if it was a special meeting to save private enterprises, none of the real estate owners attended, and the expectation of making money was greatly reduced;
In the new energy sector, the news of "no more subsidies" is enough to make Hong Kong stocks fall horribly. As for the education sector, Hong Kong was still well promoted, which was also a policy interpretation. The next day, the collective opening plummeted by more than 20%, and the vitality has disappeared. Who dares to go long
In the end, if the market is to recover, there must be leading and rising sectors.
Another big part of the Hong Kong market is Macao's gambling sector. In the face of the expected downturn in the global economy, Macao's own economy is also seeking gradual transformation. What big market do you expect? Don't think that there was also the 3.00 Silver Entertainment that made you bargain. Every company has developed into a "mature veteran", and even the Golden World Holdings (03918) in Phnom Penh, Cambodia has been constantly taking away the "business in Macao". Can a few individual tourists still boost the popularity of that year? Unlikely.
Obviously, the early funds in the Hong Kong stock market chose to flee, but where is the way out? I chatted with my friends yesterday and said that the US stock market is also at a high level now. In the context of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, even in the year of gold investment, I was depressed and frustrated.
Who will be the leader leading the next long market of Hang Seng Index?
What other industries are worth fighting for? I think it still depends on the mainland. Today, we have chosen two sections for discussion. Welcome to give us your suggestions:
1、 In the coming years, the mainland will certainly increase investment in infrastructure, especially to address weaknesses. Every large-scale investment in infrastructure construction is favored by three industries: communications, military industry and transportation infrastructure.
The investment in transportation infrastructure (including railways, highways, etc.) is indeed large, but generally the profits of enterprises are very thin, and the space for enterprise growth is narrow, that is, most of them rely on policy investment to feed. It is difficult for enterprises to do much, and state-owned enterprises are the most. Of course, the enterprises along the Belt and Road have benefited the most, and only a few of them can achieve a world scale market value of hundreds of billions or trillions, even less than banks; Military listed companies themselves are relatively vague. In recent years, except for the "military to civilian" Hikvision When they go out, there are too few good targets for investors to "buy with confidence and hold with confidence"; In each round of big cycle and big investment, the unique communication industry has created many bright technology enterprises, such as Huawei, ZTE Technology.
Because 5G will be a certain market sector opportunity in 2019, relevant analysis of Zhitong Financial APP believes that, driven by a series of events that will occur in the next year, such as 5G license issuance, industrial chain action, pilot commercial launch, the position of 5G and communication sector is expected to gradually move towards a new high.
2、 There is no doubt that China has entered a golden age in the natural gas industry. According to the news from the first Shanghai Expo, China is expected to become the world's largest natural gas importer this year. The growth of global natural gas consumption led by China will become a stable force for the development of the global clean energy industry.
In this sense, the upstream, midstream and downstream enterprises in the natural gas industry in the mainland are involved in Hong Kong shares, and many large natural gas enterprises in the mainland are listed in Hong Kong shares. On the contrary, the natural gas listed companies in mainland A-shares are generally small and have a small market value. According to the Several Opinions on Promoting the Coordinated and Stable Development of Natural Gas issued by the State Council, the domestic natural gas production will reach more than 200 billion cubic meters by 2020, the competitive transfer of blocks will be fully implemented, and the market-oriented transfer of mining rights will be encouraged. This will certainly promote mergers and acquisitions between various channels in the future, from which investors can seek good quality targets.
Even including rationalizing the natural gas price mechanism, accelerating the upstream and downstream natural gas price linkage mechanism, and establishing the gas source procurement cost constraint and incentive mechanism, the connotation of many listed companies is worth exploring.
As for the long-term unchanged bio medical sector, including the financial sector of Chinese securities companies that have gradually recovered in mainland A shares, please wait and see more patiently before leading stocks in the Hong Kong stock market wake up.
Before the interconnection, Hong Kong shares lacked both leaders and money. Now, the allocation of funds from the south to Hong Kong shares is basically normal, and on the contrary, the fund problem is less worried than before. At least it is generally included in index stocks, and its liquidity remains stable. However, it is worth investors to study where the profitable sector leading the bull market in the future comes from.
(The author of this article introduces: Executive Editor in Chief of Zhitong Finance. )
