Opinion Leader | Starmap Financial Research Institute
On November 25, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security announced that the personal pension policy was officially launched. The first batch of qualified individuals in 36 pilot cities or regions could establish personal pension accounts and open personal pension fund accounts through multiple channels, marking that China's personal pension has entered a new stage of development. There are many types of assets that can be allocated to individual pension accounts, including bank financing, savings deposits, commercial pension insurance, and public funds. However, public funds have huge advantages over other assets in terms of income, selectivity, and capital market position, and will inevitably become the key allocation assets of individual pension. In addition, on November 4, the CSRC issued the Interim Provisions on the Management of Private Pension Investment Publicly Raised Securities Investment Fund Business, which is a supporting policy in the field of public funds after the completion of the top-level design of private pension business. At the same time, on November 18, the CSRC also released the latest list of private pension funds, A total of 129 pension target fund products belonging to 40 fund companies were included, with a total scale of 89.059 billion yuan, to adapt to the "pension" attribute and help individual pension.
Since the opening of this individual pension account essentially forces individuals to contribute to the allocation of fund products, most people do not need to purchase other types of funds in the market, so this time we mainly study the pension fund that can be allocated to an individual pension account, that is, the Y share of individual pension fund (129) Of course, we will also analyze what pension theme funds are available in the market if we want to invest with our own funds.
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Overview of pension fund
The types of funds that can be purchased in the market to meet future pension needs include pension target FOF funds and pension theme funds, of which FOF funds account for the majority. According to the operation mode and investment objectives, FOF funds can be divided into target date FOF funds and target risk FOF funds.
（1） Pension target FOF fund
Target Date FOF Fund The portfolio and proportion of asset allocation will be gradually adjusted as the target date is approaching, certainly in combination with the income and risk appetite of investors, Mainly shown as Reduce the allocation proportion of equity assets and increase the allocation proportion of non equity assets, so as to gradually reduce the volatility of the overall portfolio and achieve the goal of risk diversification, that is, gradually from "radical" to "conservative", such as Bosera Pension's target date of 2035 three-year holding period (For example only, it does not constitute an investment proposal) , which means that it is set for investors who will retire in 2035, and the holding period is 3 years. The innovation of target date FOF fund lies in the introduction of "Glide curve" The foundation will automatically adjust the portfolio allocation according to the proportion under the set date until the target date is set in advance. From the perspective of the center of equity asset allocation proportion, a curve of gradual decline will be formed from beginning to end. Since the initiative of asset allocation is given to the manager and operated through a relatively objective mechanism, investors do not need to choose the time and the basis themselves. At least in theory, they only need to consider how to invest and occasionally evaluate whether the selected target date fund is suitable, Simple operation and low maintenance cost.
Target risk FOF fund It is stipulated that the benchmark allocation ratio of equity assets and non equity assets should be set according to specific risk preferences, or the portfolio risk should be defined using widely recognized methods (such as volatility) And take effective measures to control the risk of the fund portfolio. Investors can match the corresponding funds according to their risk preferences. Unlike the target date FOF funds, the target risk FOF funds usually Maintain its risk level indefinitely, In China, such funds are classified as "robust" according to their proportion of equity asset allocation （10%-25%） ”, "Balance （40%-55%） ”, "Active （65%-80%） ”3 subdivision types. For example, Caitong Asset Management Tongda held A steadily for three months (For example only, it does not constitute an investment proposal) , which means that the holding period is 3 months and the proportion of investment in equity assets does not exceed 15%.
besides, According to the shortest holding period, pension target funds have a higher risk index (including stocks, equity funds, hybrid funds, commodity futures funds, gold ETFs, etc.) The holding ratio of is limited to 1 year/30%, 3 years/60% and 5 years/80% respectively.
There are gaps between the two types of target funds in two aspects. On the one hand Due to different allocation methods of equity assets, FOF funds can flexibly allocate the proportion of equity assets according to the defined target date, while target risk FOF funds have restrictions on the proportion of equity asset allocation, so from the perspective of yield, the average yield of the former is higher than that of the latter. On the other hand, the current market is more in pursuit of target risk FOF funds (The following scale data can also be used as evidence) The main reason is that it has higher robustness and certainty, but actually the design of the target date FOF fund is more in line with the goal of pension funds to pursue the long-term preservation and appreciation of assets. However, the pension awareness of Chinese people still needs to be improved, so there is little demand for the target date FOF fund in the short term.
According to the information disclosed by the Fund Industry Association in November, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, there were 188 pension target funds, with a total scale of 94.4 billion yuan, including 17.7 billion yuan for the target date fund, 76.7 billion yuan for the target risk fund, and more than 2.93 million holders. The average annual return rate of pension target funds established for three years was 6.42%.
From the perspective of position funds, According to the data of the third quarterly report of FOF funds in 2022, the fund with the most positions is the active equity fund (Common stock type, partial stock mixed type, flexible allocation type, balanced mixed type, the same below) It can be seen that even pension funds will pursue excess returns, accounting for nearly half of the total, while bond funds (pure debt type, partial debt mixed type, mixed bond type, etc.) The proportion of assets for robust allocation also exceeds 40%, and the proportion of other types of funds is below 10%. and From the perspective of a single fund Look, There are 6 pure debt funds, 2 index funds and 2 monetary and equity funds in the top 10 funds. The top 10 funds in terms of market value and share of positions are all bond funds. It can be seen that bond funds are absolute main positions from multiple perspectives, meeting the needs of pension for stability.
From an industry perspective, According to the data of the mid report of FOF funds in 2022, the top 10 tier two industries of applying for 10000 positions are mainly concentrated in electronics, finance, food and beverage, etc. It can be seen that FOF funds tend to be characterized by high growth in industry selection, eat up the alpha earnings along with the growth of the industry and companies, and will also allocate "ballast" industries such as banks and large consumers for backing; In terms of heavy holdings, according to the latest quarterly report, Guizhou Moutai 、 Poly Development 、 Daquan Energy 、 Eastmoney 、 Ningde era It ranks top 5 in the number of funds held.
As of November 27, 2022, a total of 40 fund companies have added Y shares to 129 pension target funds, of which more than 5 have launched products, including Huaxia Fund, Huitianfu Fund, South Fund, Harvest Fund, E Fund, Guangfa Fund and Hua'an Fund.
From the perspective of the category of pension target funds, Among the 129 funds with additional Y shares, the number of target date funds and target risk funds are 50 and 79 respectively, of which the target date is 2035 (12 pieces) And 2040 (14 pieces) While the target risk is robust (59 pieces) Dominant; In terms of rate, the management rate and custody rate of Y share are halved. It can be concluded that the pension target customer group is investors who will retire in 2035 or around 2040 and have relatively stable risk appetite.
（2） Pension theme fund
from Flush From the perspective of industry distribution of pension theme funds, Pharmaceutical biology, information technology, liquor, tourism and other industries have large positions, which are similar to and different from FOF funds. First of all, the demand of elderly care for medicine and medical care will definitely rise in a straight line in the future, so we have taken a heavy position in medical and medical related segments. The top 10 heavy positions include medical services, traditional Chinese medicine, chemical pharmaceuticals, and biological products; In addition, it is consistent with FOF in high-tech hardware and software and consumption fields, but in addition to liquor and semiconductor, there are also software development, auto parts, tourism and scenic spots, logistics and other industries; However, the position in the financial sector is low. In heavy positions Guizhou Moutai, Poly Development China Exemption 、 Bank of Ningbo 、 Hengrui Pharmaceutical Top 5. According to the disclosed data, there are 26 Tonghua Shun pension theme funds with a total scale of 15.6 billion yuan, including 6.1 billion yuan of active equity funds, 1.2 billion yuan of index funds, 8.3 billion yuan of partial debt hybrid funds. The number of holders exceeds 2.14 million. The average annual return rate of pension theme funds established for three years is 11.88%.
After the downward adjustment of A-share and H-share since 2021, almost all indexes are in the bottom area of valuation. In recent three years, the PE quantiles of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index/Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index/GEM Index/Shanghai Shenzhen 300/Hang Seng Index are 12.40%/14.88%/0.28%/2.34%/4.33% respectively; In addition to the index, the top 10 heavy position industries of FOF funds are also at the bottom, which can be said that the investment performance price ratio is relatively high. If the equity market is allocated from the current point of time, the subsequent investment success rate will also be greatly improved, and the returns obtained through years of continuous investment in pension funds will also be more. So this time we mainly start with FOF funds with higher proportion of equity assets in positions to search for targets that can bring us higher returns.
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Choice of pension fund
So how to choose? We are divided into two categories: pension target FOF fund and pension theme fund with additional Y shares.
（1） Pension target FOF fund with additional Y shares
In FOF funds, we first select the equity index in the performance benchmark (Including CSI 300, CSI 800, Hang Seng Index and CSI partial/equity fund index, the same below) For FOF funds with a proportion of 50% or more, the Y share funds with a high proportion of all equity assets are as follows:
Since the products that may be recommended by each commission bank are different, you can choose the corresponding funds that can be purchased according to the performance benchmark.
In addition, in order to further screen out products with higher risk appetite and more active risk appetite, we selected FOF funds with equity index accounting for more than 50% in the performance benchmark. There are 19 funds in two categories (accounting for 15% of the 129 funds selected by the CSRC), of which the target date is (17, accounting for 34% of the 50 funds selected by the CSRC) And target risk (2, accounting for 3% of the 79 funds selected by the CSRC) It can be seen that on the whole, the risk appetite of pension target funds is low, while the risk appetite of FOF funds on the target date is higher; Secondly, further screening shall be carried out in combination with the top 10 fund types and industries of each fund, and the funds with excessive positions of bond funds shall be eliminated (Position exceeds 10%) And finally get the following 5 initial funds:
On the whole, the time of establishment was within 2-3 years, and the fund scale was not large. However, several managers had relatively long working years, all more than 10 years, which means that they have at least experienced two bear markets in the past 10 years; In terms of positions, according to the data of the third quarter report, the average proportion of non bond fund positions among the top 10 heavy position funds is 36.74%, more than 1/3, and the highest proportion is 43%. Among them, Manager Pan Yi held a position in Bank of Ningbo in the third quarter, which has accumulated an increase of nearly 3% in recent March, and Manager Zhu Kun held a position in the third quarter Huadian International 、 CNOOC In recent March, the cumulative contribution has increased by more than 7%, and these two fund managers also have higher risk appetite.
Manager Pan Yi said in 2021 that based on the perspective of five-year strategic allocation, Still optimistic about the equity market, The strategic level will still maintain a high proportion. In terms of base selection, they are more inclined to stick to long-term fund managers who invest in high-quality companies. At the same time, they believe that the current market is not yet effective, so active investment fund managers still have the opportunity to obtain excess returns. Therefore Pay more attention to finding managers and funds of this type. Finally, if it is short-term holding, it may choose ETF. From the perspective of its funds, Prefer banking, Except Bank of Ningbo, China Merchants Bank It also entered its stock position, but according to the disclosure of the Fund's third quarterly report, Manager Pan Yi is more optimistic about the industries that are supported by policies and have deterministic demand in the future, mainly focusing on Technology and manufacturing, It is believed that although the equity market has a good investment value at present, the cost performance of various assets is relatively balanced, and there is no obvious industry trend, so Maintain neutral position, One is to closely track which sectors will have inflection points in the future, and the other is to choose opportunities to move, leaving room for additional positions.
Manager Zhu Kun was selected as one of the two funds in this screening. Although he took over this year, he is an early player in asset allocation research in Guangfa, and has experience in risk control, international business, alternative assets, asset allocation and other positions, and has more practical experience in multi asset and multi strategy investment at home and abroad. Manager Zhu Kun has done quite well in risk management and control, so after taking office in these five funds The maximum rollback performance is the best , which are all about 9%, and the maximum withdrawal of the other three is between 20% and 25%, mainly due to their The investment style is relatively balanced, The two funds selected this time have indirectly invested in 16 and 18 CSRC industries, and there is no extreme "top heavy" phenomenon in the proportion of industry investment (The largest difference between the industry and the net value of FOF is 7-10 pct, and the other three funds are all around 20 pct) Heavy position funds are also mostly flexible and balanced funds. In terms of fund selection, one side Optimize and adjust balanced and active varieties in combination with multidimensional factors such as macro, fundamental and market changes, on the other hand Pay attention to the risk control ability in the selection of bond fund varieties, and strictly control the duration risk and credit risk of the portfolio. You can choose these two funds according to your retirement period.
The fund managed by Li Biao has far exceeded the benchmark in terms of performance, and has the best performance among the five funds, which is related to its base selection strategy. He is Mainly select people, Then, under the guidance of asset allocation and strategic allocation, the portfolio is constructed, and the three levels are linked. In terms of selection, the risk should not be too high, and the long-term high compound return is required. The fund manager to be selected should have a high level of investment values, learning ability, professional attitude, etc, In terms of specific means, it is quantitative+qualitative, By actively dismantling positions, communicating with fund managers, absorbing internationally mature asset allocation models, and combining objective data such as policies, liquidity, economy, and corporate profits, subjective judgment and correction can be made. Of course, the overall allocation principle is also "The strategy is relatively decentralized and the style is relatively balanced" , the ultimate goal is to pursue a high Sharpe ratio (i.e. maximizing returns under the same risk) 。 He believes that the market has fully reflected various negative information and investor sentiment at the current position, The implied cost performance ratio of investment in the market is already very high, The equity position of the portfolio was slightly increased in the continuous decline of the market.
The performance of the products of the weekly unit manager in these five funds is second only to that of the manager Li Biao. From the position of the third quarterly report, 7 of the top 10 funds are active equity funds, It also covers the most industries, It includes big consumption, big finance, high-end manufacturing, medicine and biology. At the same time, small and medium-sized stocks are also specially allocated. The industry boom and new traditional cycles are all involved. The same is true from the third quarter report, Equity position remains neutral, The bond sector believes that there may be no trend opportunities for the time being, and maintains the standard allocation. Considering that the current market is at the stage of changes in the structure of residents' asset allocation, that is, the process of transferring and dispersing deposits from real estate or banks to funds and bonds, superimpose the inflow of foreign capital, and the future capital market has obvious characteristics of maturity and institutionalization, the manager of last week's order revealed that More equity assets will be allocated, The ideal way is for the products with medium and low risks and relatively low volatility to account for 30%, then the index products to account for 30%, and the active and highly elastic products to account for 20% respectively.
（2） Pension theme fund
In addition to purchasing Y share products through personal pension accounts, we can also purchase some pension theme funds in the fund market through our own funds to pursue higher returns. Here we also do simple tracking analysis and screening.
At present, there are two pension related indexes in the market. One is China Securities Pension Industry Index （399812.SZ） Select the shares of listed companies involved in hotel tourism, cultural media, medicine and health, life insurance and other pension related businesses as constituent shares to reflect the overall performance of listed companies related to the pension industry. From the perspective of returns in the past year, they are all higher than 300 in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and only one product is linked to them, that is, Guangfa Zhongzheng Pension Industry （000968.OF） , barely outperformed the benchmark, and has been in a loss state since its inception. The second is the Shanghai Pension Industry Index （H50043.CSI） Select 40 listed company securities related to health management, leisure tourism, life insurance and other pension industry related businesses as the index sample to reflect the overall performance of listed company securities related to the pension industry in Shanghai Stock Exchange, and there are no related products. In terms of cost performance, index return, product depth and breadth, it is not recommended to configure.
In view of the high cost performance ratio of the current equity market investment, we only do a simple analysis of active equity funds here, and do not involve other pension theme funds such as index type and partial debt hybrid type. According to the classification of pension theme funds in Flush, there are 6 active equity funds in total (Class C is not listed separately) , as shown in the following table:
Among them, there are ten billion fund managers such as Zhao Bei, Wang Zonghe, Wang Jian, etc; There are also "double five-star" products in fund rating; In addition, only 15% is the lowest in the rollback, which is good; In terms of industry coverage, the focus is on medicine, which is also in line with expectations. The rest are relatively balanced, and the volatility may be better than that of single industry theme funds. You can choose according to your needs.
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Balance of individual pension funds
To sum up, we know that both FOF and pension theme funds have had good performance and outstanding targets in the past, especially in 2019 and 2020, but these two years are also the years when public funds achieve leapfrog development, The sustainability and extrapolation of performance are still questionable.
Although equity funds are more valuable in terms of medium and long-term allocation, they are more volatile, For pension investment, the safety position should be higher than the income, The FOF fund in China has been designed for pension since its birth, so it naturally has investment advantages.
However, if you think you can choose varieties in the whole market through your own investment ability and beat the individual pension account with an annuity investment income of 12000 yuan/year within a 20-30 year period, you can not pay the individual pension at all. However, when selecting products, the CSRC also selects the best among the best. The selection and recommendation of excellent FOF investment managers and products in large companies has already had a layer of endorsement, which is sufficient for most ordinary investors.
At the same time, the perspective of this time is mainly from the FOF of more equity funds, not focusing on the FOF of mainly bond funds. In the final analysis, the odds of intervening in the equity market are higher at the moment, and the later growth elasticity is more advantageous, but you can choose according to your own risk preference.
(The author of this article introduces: professional research institutions, whose research fields cover macroeconomic, consumer finance, banking development, Internet finance, financial technology, etc.)
