Lin Caiyi and Xu Liang /Article
In the past two years, new energy vehicles have become popular all over the world. In many people's impression, the use of electricity by new energy vehicles means "green" and "environmental protection". This article observes how "green" electricity is from the energy structure of electricity, and how much "green" space is left for the energy structure of human beings?
Core conclusions
1. Not all electricity comes from green energy. In 2022, nuclear power, hydropower, wind power solar energy And other low-carbon energy sources such as biofuels account for only 39% of the global power generation, thermal power generation such as coal accounts for 36% of the global power generation, and the remaining 25% is oil and natural gas power generation.
2. Due to different geographical conditions and other natural resources, the energy structure of different countries is also different. From the perspective of the structure of power generation materials, due to the large investment in nuclear power, Europe has the highest proportion of low-carbon energy, which is 55%; This is followed by the United States, where low carbon energy accounts for 40% of power generation, China's thermal power (coal) accounts for 61%, and low carbon raw materials account for only 35%.
3. The rising share of low-carbon energy is a global trend. From the perspective of the evolution of global power generation raw materials, since 2010, the proportion of low-carbon energy has increased from 19.96% to 29.91%, the proportion of fossil fuels has decreased from 67.21% to 60.94%, down 9%, and the proportion of nuclear power has decreased from 12.83% to 9.15%, down 28.68%.
4. Solar energy and wind power are the fastest growing green energy in China. As hydropower, wind power and solar energy are highly dependent on weather and nature, the proportion of these energies in actual production and life continues to increase depending on breakthroughs in energy storage technology and equipment.
Body:
I Not all electricity comes from green energy
"Low carbon" and "green" are the hot words in the international economic development in recent years, and also the direction of the reform of the energy structure of countries. With the decline in the proportion of coal, oil and gas and other petrochemical fuels, the use of electricity in industrial production and people's daily life is increasingly popular. Since many media describe electric vehicles as "new energy vehicles", many people think that electricity is green energy. Not necessarily.
In 2022, low carbon energy sources such as nuclear power, hydropower, wind power, solar energy and other biofuels will account for only 39% of global power generation, thermal power generation such as coal will account for 36% of global power generation, and the remaining 25% will be oil and natural gas power generation. (Figure 1)
Due to different geographical conditions and other natural resources, as well as different levels of economic development, the energy structure of different countries is also different. Taking electricity as an example, the proportion of different generation modes in electricity production in different countries is different. For example, China is highly dependent on coal. By 2022, coal power generation will account for 61% of China's electricity production; Europe and the United States are highly dependent on natural gas, which accounts for 39% of electricity production in the United States.
From the perspective of the structure of power generation raw materials, Europe has the highest degree of green. Due to the large investment in nuclear power, Europe has the highest proportion of low-carbon energy, which is 55%; The United States accounts for 40%. After the efforts of China in the past decade, the proportion of low-carbon raw materials in power generation will reach 35% in 2022.
By 2022, from the perspective of renewable fuel power generation, China's hydropower accounts for the highest proportion, 14.9%, followed by solar energy, 9.1%. The proportion of biofuels in Europe is relatively high, accounting for 14.6%, followed by solar energy, accounting for 11%.
In general, China's hydropower, wind power, solar energy and other renewable energy together account for more than 30%, higher than the United States and reaching the global average (excluding nuclear power).
II The rising share of low-carbon energy is a global trend
From the change of the proportion of raw materials in the global power generation, since 2010, the proportion of fossil fuels has dropped from 67.21% to 60.94%, down 9%, and the proportion of nuclear power has dropped from 12.83% to 9.15%, down 28.68%. In the same period, the proportion of low-carbon energy increased from 19.96% to 29.91%.
From the dynamic trend, China's fossil fuel power generation has grown rapidly in the past 20 years. In 2002, China's fossil fuel power generation was only 1337 TWh, and by 2022, the fossil fuel power generation will be up to 5710 TWh, an increase of 4.27 times. Over the same period, fossil fuel power generation in Europe and the United States was basically flat, or even slightly decreased. In 2022, the fossil fuel power generation in the United States will be 2558 TWH, and that in Europe will be 2016 TWH. Together, the fossil fuel power generation in Europe and the United States will be lower than the absolute value of China alone.
At the same time, China's low-carbon power generation is also the fastest growing country in the world. In 2002, the total amount of low-carbon energy power generation in China was only 316 TWH, far lower than 1991 TWH in Europe and 1116 TWH in the United States. By 2022, China's low-carbon energy power generation will reach 3128 TWH, an increase of nearly 10 times, with the absolute value not only exceeding that of Europe (2644 TWH), but also exceeding that of the United States (1739 TWH), This is closely related to China's urbanization and rapid development of manufacturing industry.
III Although the proportion of green energy is rising, coal is still the leading role of China's energy
From the perspective of the overall energy consumption structure, the proportion of primary electricity and other energy sources is about 17% at present, double that of 2002 (8%). At the same time, the proportion of renewable energy in power generation raw materials increased from 18.78% to 30.76% (excluding nuclear power), and the proportion of fossil fuels decreased from 79.44% in 2010 to 64.6%. Although the proportion of green energy is gradually rising, coal still accounts for half of China's energy structure.
IV Solar energy and wind power are the fastest growing green energy in China
In China, the fastest growing green energy is wind power generation. From 2012 to 2022, the installed capacity of wind power+solar energy will rise from 60 million kilowatts to 760 million kilowatts, with an accumulative growth rate of 1160%. The proportion of wind power generation will rise from 2.08% to 9.06%; The second is solar energy, which has increased from 0.07% to 4.76% in the last decade (since 2018, the installed capacity of wind power+solar energy has exceeded that of hydropower). The sharp increase in the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in China also confirms this from another dimension. At the same time, the installed capacity of hydropower increased from 250 million kilowatts to 410 million kilowatts, with a cumulative growth rate of 64%.
Hydropower, wind power and solar energy are highly dependent on weather and nature, unlike coal power generation, they can have greater autonomy. Therefore, the proportion of green energy such as hydropower, wind power and solar energy in actual production and life continues to increase depending on breakthroughs in energy storage technology and equipment.
(Xu Liang, the second author of this article, is the director of the East Asia Futures Research Institute. The information or opinions contained in the report are for reference only and do not constitute suggestions on buying or selling securities.)
(About the author: Vice President of the Research Institute of China Chief Economist Forum)
