Wen/opinion leader columnist Li Chao, Pan Gaoyuan
six The growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above the monthly scale turned positive, the proportion of profits in the middle and lower reaches expanded, and the total amount and structure trend were positive. In addition to the upstream price decline and downstream transmission, the new measures of normalized epidemic prevention help people flow, and the accelerated recovery of consumption scene also has a positive contribution to the improvement of downstream profits. At the same time, the stronger link repair on the consumer demand side will help enterprises digest high inventory. We believe that the peak of passive replenishment has passed, and the active destocking stage is open.
Industrial profits are rising, and the middle and lower reaches are improving actively
1-6 In June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased year on year 1% ， six YoY growth of profits of industrial enterprises above the monthly scale 0.8% , up from last month seven point three %, mainly because the epidemic was under control and both production and consumption were repaired, and tax and fee cuts supported the center of higher revenue and profit margins. On the one hand, the growth rate of industrial added value six The monthly recovery continued, and the unexpected recovery of social zero data reflected the smooth repair of production and marketing, six Monthly business income growth 8.6% , both rebounded for two consecutive months. On the other hand, according to our calculations, six The profit margin of monthly industrial revenue is 6.83% , slightly lower than last month zero point one %, which is still far higher than the historical hub level. The role of tax and fee reduction, rescue and assistance policies is apparent, among which manufacturing, power, heat, gas and water supply industries are recovering on a month on month basis.
six The structural imbalance of monthly new profits has improved, and the proportion of middle and lower reaches has expanded. six The price of raw materials in the upstream of the month fell back, slightly improving the degree of extrusion in the middle and downstream, as indicated in the previous report six The monthly consumption scenario gradually recovered, and the profit proportion of downstream industries was actively repaired. According to our calculation, six The proportion of newly increased profits of upstream industrial enterprises in the current month is about 38% , down about nine Percentage points, and the proportion of midstream and downstream respectively increased by about three and six Percentage points. (Fig two ）
Equipment manufacturing has recovered, and consumer profit is expected to improve
six The equipment manufacturing industry recovered significantly in January, driving the growth of industrial profits above designated size four Percentage points. Benefiting from the continuous collaborative recovery of upstream and downstream industrial chains and supply chains, the profit of equipment manufacturing industry six Monthly growth 4.1% , previous value -9.1% 。 As Shanghai, Jilin and other major automobile producing areas speed up the resumption of production, the profits of the automobile manufacturing industry have significantly reversed to growth 47.7% It is the industry that plays the most important role in driving the profit recovery of industrial enterprises. Instruments, general equipment, special equipment, electrical machinery industry are all good.
six In January, with the active recovery of the flow of people and the better repair of the consumption scene, the consumer goods industry recovered well. The decline in profits of consumer goods manufacturing narrowed compared with that of last month six point seven Percentage points. Among them, the profits of textile clothing, furniture, printing, agricultural and sideline food processing industries increased from a decline. The profit of liquor, beverage, tea, culture, education, industry and art industry maintained a rapid growth, respectively 21% 、 15.4% 。 We believe that with the promotion of new epidemic prevention measures such as normalization of nucleic acid detection and shortening of epidemic prevention time, the flow of domestic people and offline consumption scene will continue to repair, and the downstream consumer goods industry will make positive profits.
Both nominal and actual inventory decreased, and the prelude of active de stocking was opened
six Year on year growth of finished goods inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size at the end of the month 18.9% , compared with the previous value 19.7% Back down, this round of passive replenishment disturbed by the epidemic reached a high point last month, in line with the judgment of the previous report. According to our calculation, six After removing the price factor at the end of the month, the actual inventory growth rate is 12.1% , previous value 12.5% 。 It can be seen that in addition to price factors affecting the decline of nominal inventory, the actual inventory six The monthly consumption scenario accelerated recovery, and the demand side started to decline under the effect of stronger month on month repair than the production side. The consumer side recovery helps enterprises to actively digest excessive inventory. (Fig three ）
Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we believe that under the background of normalized nucleic acid testing and economic normalization recovery, domestic demand may have a strong performance on a month on month basis. The main trend is for industrial enterprises to enter the active destocking stage, but there is still the possibility of passive replenishment disturbance due to the staged rebound of the epidemic.
(The author of this article introduces: Chief Economist of Zheshang Securities. He is an off campus tutor of many well-known universities. He used to work for the People's Bank of China for a long time.)
