Article/Zhou Tianyong, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader (WeChat public account kopleader)
We should cherish, cherish, do not bother, focus on development, scientific supervision, fair competition, and put them on the global market to fight and grow. This should be our generous mind and clear principles for the development of our Internet platform enterprises.
Industrialization and urbanization have improved the income and living standards of residents and promoted economic development. The rapid changes in Internet, mobile communication, big data, fast computing and other technologies have changed the way people deal and live. On November 11, 2018, Tmall's final trading volume on that day was 213.5 billion yuan, while the total retail sales of social goods in 1952 was only 27.7 billion yuan, and in 1978 only 155.9 billion yuan; On that day, the peak value of real-time computing processing such as transactions reached 1.718 billion per second, and the number of logistics orders reached 1.042 billion. The online and offline were fully integrated. More than 200000 new retail stores and 100 key business districts across the country participated in the collaborative transaction of Tmall Double 11.
This day has really become a festival with a warm atmosphere for Chinese people, especially young people, to shop and consume.
1、 Cherish our hard won private and Internet platform economy
The emergence of the Internet has changed many economic cognition and theorems. The emergence of the Internet has changed many economic perceptions and theorems. For example, in the real economy, the marginal revenue that increases after a certain scale decreases, but in the Internet economy, it has become an almost infinite increase in the return to scale. For example, in a space, the tragedy of the commons occurs due to crowding, while in a virtual space, the more crowded the space, the more common the comedy. Another example is the limitation of real physical space (storage yard, warehouse and store), the limitation of storage and display quantity and the rise in cost, which has become the virtual space with endless shelves and low display cost. In addition, the cost of information search is very high in the real physical space, and when every individual with idle property records information in the network space, the time and cost of information search and matching are greatly reduced, and the emergence and development of online car hailing are all from this. In this Double 11, 237 brands have turnover of more than 100 million yuan, which is due to Tmall's reduction of their advertising costs and improvement of transaction efficiency of consumer manufacturers. It can be seen that technology is progressing, cognition and economics are updating, life, production, trade, consumption and other ways are changing, and human society is moving forward.
The reason why Alibaba has made such contributions to the national economy is, first of all, that it was born and grew in the great environment of China's reform and opening up since 1978, and that the fair competition and development of individual and private economies is an important part of the establishment of the basic socialist economic system. In fact, by observing the development and development of China's Internet platforms, we can realistically say that private enterprises and entrepreneurs have the advantages that most state-owned enterprises do not have, such as property rights distribution incentives in place, clear equity, clear principal-agent, clear responsibilities, rights and interests, sensitive market response, adaptive decision-making, strong innovation and pioneering power, and low system costs, In particular, only private enterprises can emerge from the gap, break through difficulties, and grow up through hardships, such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, Sina, etc. Therefore, without the basic economic system of reform and opening up and the socialist market economy, Alibaba and today's Tmall will not have Double 11; There is no such group of private entrepreneurs as Ma Yun who dare to innovate and take risks, nor the miracle of China's development in the past 40 years. We need to respect and cherish such private entrepreneurs, cherish such hard won situation, and maintain such an encouraging and proud development trend.
Secondly, the birth, growth and expansion of Alibaba also derive from China. Secondly, Alibaba's birth, growth and expansion also derive from China. Alibaba's birth, growth and expansion also derive from China's large population, growing economy and vast territory. Looking around the world, in 2017, China had a population of 1.39 billion, a per capita GDP of 8600 dollars, and a land area of 9.6 million square kilometers; The United States has a population of 320 million, a per capita GDP of 59500 dollars, and a land area equivalent to ours. The world's largest Internet companies are all born in China and the United States, but rarely in Europe and other countries. Why? Because the population multiplied by the average capacity to pay is the market; Land area is the space for economic development. On the vast land, there are hundreds of millions of people with the ability to pay. There are huge metropolitan areas and urban belts, many cities, densely populated rural communities, transportation information trunk lines, ports, stations, airports, data centers and other logistics and information flow systems. This is a huge platform like Alibaba, Tencent, Google, Amazon, etc, And the special soil for the birth and development of online and offline integrated enterprises. Although Europe has a developed economy and a large population, Russia has the largest land area in the world. In such an era of rapid progress in information technology, why have there not been giant Internet enterprises like Alibaba and Google? Think about it carefully. Either the division of countries restricts the institutional coordination of the Internet economy; Or although the land area is large, but the population is sparse, the economy is scattered, and the total scale is small, the Internet virtual economy can have unlimited space, but because the capacity is very limited, it becomes uneconomical. Therefore, the Internet giant enterprise economy in China and the United States is a natural advantage and a gift from heaven. As these Internet enterprises are growing, they will inevitably have some shortcomings and problems. At home and abroad, there are also many proposals and suggestions on its anti-monopoly division, nationalization and strengthening administrative control. In fact, these domestic Internet enterprises are also overcoming and correcting some deviations in the development process, correcting mistakes in learning, making progress in growth, adhering to social responsibility, and helping national development. For example, Alibaba has made beneficial explorations, efforts and contributions in various aspects, such as online and offline crackdowns on counterfeits, support for small businesses and individual entrepreneurship and employment, protection of intellectual property rights, support for Chinese enterprises' own brands, assistance in the development of rural e-commerce, and cultivation of rural teachers in remote and poor areas. For these giant private Internet enterprises, we should realize that they are hard won. We are in the competition of international Internet enterprises. Europe often raises the big stick of anti-monopoly against the giant Internet enterprises in the United States, which are easily divided, mixed and transformed. Other countries have loose regulations and policies, and we have too much administrative control and cumbersome supervision, It may make our giant Internet enterprises in an unequal state in international competition, which is not conducive to our national interests and does not conform to the market rules of similar international enterprises. Therefore, we should cherish, cherish, do not bother, focus on development, scientific supervision, fair competition, and put them on the global market to fight and grow, which should be our generous mind and clear principles for the development of our Internet platform enterprises.
2、 National conditions: transformation and challenges faced by the new economy
The Internet, the digital economy and intelligence in all aspects are powerfully promoting economic and social progress. However, while we are praising the new economy, we are also faced with the pains of elimination, renewal, adaptation and other transformation, even turbulence, in terms of work knowledge, skills, majors, posts, distribution and other aspects.
There is also a tendency to think that new technology, digital economy, and intelligence are also the most important ways to improve total factor productivity, the quality of economic development, and transform the growth momentum. On the one hand, I do not deny its importance. The progress of science and technology and the disruptive industrial revolution are the indispensable driving force for China's economic and social development. On the other hand, it is necessary to clearly understand China's current national conditions: the urbanization of household registration is only 42%, and the urbanization of permanent population is 58%, which is 22 percentage points lower than that of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province at the same level of development that year on average; The agricultural employment labor force ratio was 27.7%, nearly 15 percentage points higher than that of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province in the same year; The agricultural labor productivity is 31230 yuan, and the non-agricultural labor productivity is 134383 yuan; The average income of urban residents is 69726 yuan, and that of rural residents is 22017 yuan; The per capita disposable income of urban registered residents is 41100 yuan, that of urban non registered residents is 24600 yuan, and that of rural permanent residents is 13432 yuan. There are 7764 billion employed people, 210 million employed in agriculture, 286 million migrant workers, and only 280 million people in stable employment. A sharp question is: when our main focus is on digital, a sharp question is: when our main focus is on digital and smart economy, can we guarantee the employment opportunities of 210 million agricultural workers and 286 million migrant workers, as well as 60 million rural left behind children who will enter employment in the future?
Some scholars said that such concerns also occurred when machines replaced manual labor. Later, the development of machinery and automobile industries created many employment opportunities. However, the countries in the industrial revolution expanded and colonized the world, expanded their export markets and sold their industrial products to the whole world; In the industrial reform at that time, machines replaced physical strength, but not brain power. Today we are faced with the following situation: not only can we not go to colonize and forcibly expand the export market, but now we have to relatively reduce exports and increase imports; Modern technology should not only replace physical strength, industrial and agricultural work, but also replace brain power and service industry opportunities. If the elites with knowledge and skills and technology and capital are creating wealth, the entrepreneurial and employment opportunities of nearly 500 million ordinary labor force are relatively, or even absolutely reduced, and they cannot obtain income while creating wealth through entrepreneurship and employment, then who will buy the products and services created by intelligent technology and powerful capital? Will it lead to the great overproduction and crisis in the transformation from workshop handicraft industry to factory machinery industry in the 1930s? And Xiang intelligent robot What will be the efficiency, inertia, cost, leakage, etc., as well as the learning, work, competitiveness, etc. of future generations when taxes are levied and money is distributed to the unemployed?
Therefore, the national conditions of the existence of a huge amount of ordinary labor force determine that we need to pay more attention to the new economy that can enable the labor force to have full employment opportunities, or that when developing the Internet, digital and intelligent economy, we should not affect, suppress or shrink the industries that can accommodate the employment of ordinary labor force.
At present, there is a view that the service industry will increase a lot of employment, which is the current view of the economy that the service industry will increase a lot of employment, and it is the source of new momentum of economic growth. Smart technology and service industry can not only expand employment, but also shrink employment. Compared with the manufacturing industry, the service industry has higher labor costs due to its inability to produce in a large-scale, specialized and standardized manner. Economist Baumol once found that when the added value of the service industry approaches 60%, the economic growth of a country will quickly decline from a high speed to a medium speed, and in a relatively short time it will decline to 4%. Therefore, our focus turns to the development of the service economy. Even with the support of the digital economy, will there be new growth drivers in general? Will the medium and high speed 6% growth last for a long time?
3、 New Mission of Internet Economy in China
From the previous data, compared with many international countries, the income gap between urban and rural residents, the agricultural and non-agricultural labor productivity gap are very large, the rural population and agricultural employment labor ratio are very high, it is still a developing country with a strong social and economic color of agriculture and rural areas, and has not yet completed urbanization and industrialization. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the reform of household registration, labor mobility, marketization of capital and land allocation, equalization of urban education and medical care, and residence of new arrivals, promote urbanization of citizenization, extend industrialization, encourage ordinary labor force to start businesses and obtain employment, increase residents' income, and purchase and meet the demand for industrial products of nearly 500 million labor families, Resolve the demand for industrial production capacity, extend industrialization, and maintain a period of about 10 years of medium high growth, so as to smoothly enter the ranks of high-income countries.
Therefore, China's Internet economic revolution has not stopped. It needs to move from the current relatively mature commercial and financial Internet to improving the transportation and logistics Internet, starting the development of the real industry Internet, and integrating and developing the people's livelihood (elderly care, medical care, health, etc.) Internet. For example, the development of the industrial Internet has encountered new fields, and needs. For example, the development of the industrial Internet has encountered new fields, and needs new exploration: a vertical process and horizontal connection of traditional industries, project selection, feasibility study, engineering design, investment and construction, trial production and operation, large-scale production, product conception, design, testing Small scale trial production, production, packaging, warehousing, transportation, wholesale, sales, indicators, procurement, transportation, warehousing, outbound, incoming materials, budget, financing, accounting, wages, social security, taxes, final accounts, dividends, etc., all need managers who are very familiar with all aspects of upgrading from the lower levels. The Internet industry platform needs framework designers, professional module builders, specific program editors, module and system integrators and debuggers. The former should clearly and logically tell the programmer these details, processes, standards, parameters, etc., while the latter should listen to and understand the contents of each part, the relationship between each content, the internal logical connection and process, and the functions that the platform can handle and provide. It also satisfies the login, monitoring, operation and function of relevant interfaces by relevant personnel such as designers, producers, transporters, customers, finance, management personnel, etc. Experts who are familiar with the Internet are not familiar with all aspects of the industry; Those who are not familiar with all aspects of the micro industry can not explain the needs of the platform system to the programming experts; However, those who are particularly familiar with all aspects of the industry and micro details cannot tell the stories they are familiar with to the system designers and builders if they are not strong in induction and logic.
Therefore, the next step of the development of industrial Internet and people's livelihood Internet needs to learn from the journey of commercial Internet, learn from its experience, avoid its lessons, and work hard to promote the overall interconnection, digitalization and intelligence of China's national economy. The national economy relies on the deep integration of commerce, finance, industry and people's livelihood with the Internet. In the new era of the digital economy, in particular, it creates more entrepreneurial and employment opportunities for ordinary workers, so that they can distribute wealth while creating wealth, improve their income level, expand the consumption demand with payment ability, and resolve overproduction, Extend new industrialization that is both intelligent and fully employed, and promote new urbanization that is both Internet based and citizen based.
China has developed the Internet of commerce, finance, industry and people's livelihood, developed online China has developed the Internet of commerce, finance, industry and people's livelihood, and developed a platform economy combining online and offline to serve the needs of China's economic and social development; In the process of opening up, abide by equal international planning; In addition, we should strive to build a win-win and peaceful Internet world civilization through fair competition and win-win cooperation.
(The author of this article introduces: Deputy Director and researcher of the Institute of International Strategy of the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China. The public account Tianyong looks at the economy zhouty tjj)
