Article/Xiang Yuanzhi, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader (WeChat official account kopleader)
Consumption should pursue a better life rather than simple possession of materials, which is the embodiment of good expectations for China's future. Therefore, the promotion of credit consumption also needs to be relatively cautious.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 32 trillion yuan, up 9.3% year on year; The year-on-year growth rate in September was 9.2%, 0.2 percentage points faster than that in August.
In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 78%, 14 percentage points higher than the same period last year. It can be said that consumption has become one of the main driving forces of China's economic growth.
Not long ago, the government issued consumption related documents, proposing to further enhance the importance of consumption, encourage consumption and optimize the consumption environment. With the arrival of the Double 11, the feast of national consumption is once again open.
What's the meaning of Double 11?
For Chinese consumers, the Double 11 Carnival means the rise of online shopping,.
The early "Double Eleven" plan was aimed at college students. These people, accustomed to the convenience of online shopping in universities, have become advocates of online shopping after entering the society, helping online shopping become mainstream from niche, and become one of the main channels of social consumption, improving the contribution of consumption to the economy, and stimulating the rise of a number of emerging consumer brands. Such brands are everywhere in the past decade.
Of course, it has also boosted the development of e-commerce industry and even the entire Internet industry, making China's economy take on a new look, with new growth points, cultivating a large number of middle classes with stronger consumption capacity, and forming a good social style and benchmark to encourage hard work.
Historically, the Double 11 Festival ten years ago was a crucial time.
In 2008, China was faced with the impact of economic downturn and the international financial crisis, and large-scale infrastructure plans began to start, which boosted the economy. The rapid development of online shopping has revitalized the production resources of manufacturing enterprises and stimulated domestic demand. And the rapid progress of the achievements over the past years corresponds to the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous start of people's consumption ability.
From the perspective of social consciousness, the early mainstream group of online shopping is the young people of the post-80s generation. They lack the experience of material scarcity and regard consumption as an important aspect of proving their own existence value. At the same time, with economic development and social stratification, conspicuous consumption or comparative consumption began to appear, breaking away from the tendency of the previous generation to attach importance to savings and restrain consumption.
It is the exaggeration of the Double 11 Festival that makes consumption become a mainstream. Encouraging consumption and positive affirmation of consumption have become the general consciousness of the society. Advanced consumption and phased consumption have also begun to appear.
How will the future evolve?
The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward that the main contradiction in the current society is the contradiction between the people's growing demand for a better life and the imbalance and inadequate development. The reason why buying toilet covers in Japan has become a trend is that people's yearning for a better life is limited to the current imperfect supply.
Therefore, the consumption quality still needs to be improved. As a consumer festival in China, the Double 11 Festival still needs to be maintained and improved.
However, judging from the growing discussion on consumption downgrade in recent years, the decline in the turnover growth of the Double 11 may be a trend. With the maturity of consumption awareness, people's judgment of product value will become more mature, and consumption upgrading and consumption degradation will coexist.
At the same time, there is another phenomenon that deserves attention. By the end of 2017, about 280 million people in China had credit cards, but the number of new cards issued in 2017 was up to 123 million! Accounting for 44%. At the same time, more and more people do not pay back their credit cards. In 2016, the overdue amount of credit cards was less than 40 billion, and in 2017, it was 71.1 billion.
According to the General Situation of the Operation of the Payment System in the First Quarter of 2018 issued by the People's Bank of China, the combined issuance of credit cards and credit has further expanded to 612 million, the average credit line of bank cards is 215 thousand yuan, and the credit utilization rate is 44.17%.
In addition, the rapid development of online cash loans has constituted a channel other than credit cards, which has led to the phenomenon of using loans to support loans, and users continue to sink to people who do not have the corresponding ability to pay, especially in university campuses or counties, causing many problems.
So how should the future change?
First of all, the author believes that some changes should be made to the current consumer culture. Judging from the promotional copy of some enterprises in previous years, there is a suspicion that consumerism is too highly praised. However, consumption should pursue a better life, rather than simple possession of materials, which is the embodiment of good expectations for China's future. Therefore, the promotion of credit consumption also needs to be relatively cautious.
Second, future consumption should be more about global buying and global selling. Let good things from all over the world enter China better, and let Chinese products enter the world better. In this way, we can promote the quality upgrading of Chinese products and learn from the advanced practices of foreign enterprises under the pressure of global competition.
Third, consumption should be better reflected not only as consumption, but also as personal investment. Investment and consumption can evolve in many ways. If consumption is led to the promotion of personal human capital, there will be long-term returns from both the social and personal levels.
In this regard, it also depends on various platforms to develop better products and conduct consumer education, so as to better integrate tangible product consumption and intangible product consumption. For example, the popular knowledge payment since 2017 reflects this trend.
Fourth, online and offline will jointly form a community to promote the development of new retail. In recent years, the trend of online and offline integration is very obvious. Ali and JD have entered the offline market through investment or cooperation, and offline retail is also actively exploring and cooperating online.
This year's Double 11 Festival is also very popular offline. With the help of new technology big data, offline experience advantages can complement online advantages, so that consumption becomes a better thing.
(The author of this article introduces: Doctor of Economics, young expert of China Internet Association)
