Article/Jia Kang of China Economic 50 People Forum
To solve the fundamental problem of the property market in a deeper level, we must sum up the past gains and losses, promote the "dual track planning" system framework of the property market, and work together to overcome difficulties with institutional changes in land, investment and financing, taxes and other aspects.
Jia Kang: Real estate market regulation should speed up the pace of root causes On the evening of April 22, the Hainan Provincial People's Government issued the Notice on Further Stabilizing the Real Estate Market, implementing the nationwide purchase restriction policy of Hainan Province, which aroused widespread concern.
Since the new round of property market regulation on "September 30" in 2016, regulation measures have been issued intensively. In 2018, China's property market regulation has not changed from a strict base. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in the first quarter of this year, the real estate regulation measures introduced by major cities in China have exceeded 76 times. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, house prices in most places have gradually cooled from the soaring state in 2016. In March 2018, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in the first tier cities fell 0.6% year on year, and the price of second-hand houses fell for the first time. However, the property market under control is still surging. Although housing prices in hot cities have declined, the number of cities with rising housing prices in March is increasing according to the observation of housing price fluctuations in 70 large and medium-sized cities.
Since the housing system reform in 1998, China's real estate market has undergone multiple rounds of regulation. In the past regulation, there was often a situation of "playing roughshod": when house prices rose and the heat was too high, they were constantly suppressed; After a period of time, it shifted to the opposite direction, from one extreme to the other. Even after the cancellation of purchase and loan restrictions, many cities have given government subsidies to house buyers to encourage them to trade. This kind of "roller coaster ride" and "fidgeting" is obviously not a healthy state. It can only cure the symptoms, not the root causes.
To solve the fundamental problem of the property market in a deeper level, we must sum up the past gains and losses, promote the "dual track planning" system framework of the property market, and work together to overcome difficulties with institutional changes in land, investment and financing, taxes and other aspects. Previously, the central government has stressed that the healthy development of the real estate industry needs to solve the problem of long-term mechanism, and to solve the problem of basic system construction. This is actually the way to solve the problem.
The first is the housing system. At present, the housing system framework of dual track planning (the government led "security track" and the "market track" of commercial housing) is becoming clearer and clearer. After years of development, the affordable housing has shrunk from more than ten forms of affordable housing to two types that are now clear: one is public rental housing, that is, to get through the concept of "low rent public rental" and collectively referred to as public rental housing; The other is the increasingly valued house with common property rights. Although it has property rights, it is not complete. It is jointly held by the government and the housing subject. It cannot be traded according to the market, nor can all the income from house sales be attributed to the buyers. Beyond the security track, it is the so-called commercial housing track.
Reasonable and sustainable dual track planning of affordable housing and commercial housing is a very important institutional framework, which can not only ensure that the middle and low income class and the income "sandwich layer" in society can be safely supported by "housing", but also enable middle and high income families to solve housing problems on the market track of commercial housing, which will have a long-term supporting effect on the healthy development of the real estate market.
Secondly, it is necessary to promote the reform of the relevant tax system, especially in the reform of the property tax system in the housing tenure link. The real estate tax system uses economic leverage to change the expectations and behaviors of the supply and demand parties in the real estate market. By curbing speculation, it can reduce the vacancy rate of housing, stabilize the transaction price of the real estate market, and improve the health of the market. In addition to the "ballast and stability" of the property market price, the property tax will also promote the local government to speed up the functional transformation, promote the improvement of the local tax system, optimize the income distribution, property allocation and other redistribution adjustment functions.
According to the statements made by relevant departments at the National Two Sessions this year, the "legislation first" work of real estate tax reform is expected to start within the year. After being deliberated and approved by the National People's Congress through legislative procedures, the tax will authorize local governments to treat them differently and implement them step by step according to the conditions of their jurisdictions. At the same time, the taxes and fees for land development and commercial housing transactions related to housing should also be integrated and optimized to reduce the burden of taxpayers as much as possible.
Moreover, land system, investment and financing system are basic systems related to the "root cause" of the property market. The "land ticket" in land development and utilization, the reform of land collection and storage, rural construction land circulation, and the innovation of PPP and policy financing in investment and financing should be actively promoted, so as to jointly create a "long-term mechanism" for the healthy development of China's real estate field and the treatment of both symptoms and symptoms of the property market. According to some analysts, this year is expected to be the key year for breakthroughs in the construction of long-term mechanism in the real estate market. At present, the management department has made relevant arrangements to speed up the establishment of a housing system featuring multi-agent supply, multi-channel security and simultaneous rent and purchase under the "housing without speculation" orientation.
(The author of this article introduces: member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and researcher of the Chinese Academy of Financial Sciences.)
