Article/Jia Kang of China Economic 50 People Forum
The new normal of China's economy can be realized after the "new" has been clear for several years, and it is expected to continue to pursue and realize high-quality development on the platform of the normal interval of medium and high speed in the future.
Jia Kang: China's economic "new normal" has entered a new stage The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward the guideline of building a modern economic system with the supply side structural reform as the main line. Later, the Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that in the face of the new era, the basic characteristics of China's economic operation have changed from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development. In the next three years, we will fight three major battles, namely, preventing and resolving major risks, targeted poverty alleviation, and pollution prevention, to win a comprehensive well-off society. In 2018, we will make solid progress in this regard, guide and stabilize expectations, and adhere to the new development concept of seeking progress while maintaining stability.
From the perspective of 2018, to implement the central spirit and do a good job in economic work, I think there is a significant possibility that the macro-economy will complete the bottoming test period and "stabilize into normal". On the basis of years of efforts to stabilize growth, promote reform, adjust the structure, benefit people's livelihood, prevent risks, and protect the ecology, China's macroeconomic operation has gone from double-digit high-speed growth to a downward trend after 2011, and turned to a platform with a growth rate of 6.7~6.9% over nine quarters since the second half of 2015. In 2018, if the regulation is well handled, This platform is expected to continue to run in the medium term.
After the bottoming out test period, which no longer has obvious downward pressure, an expected adjustment should be completed to shake off the worries and anxieties of continuing to decline at the level of tens of millions of enterprises and many local governments, so as to further guide the production and operation behavior of micro entities and achieve the stability of the entire macro-economy with the general improvement of market expectations. In this way, when China's economy enters the "middle-income stage" and logically changes from high-speed growth to "medium high-speed growth", it can complete the confirmation of its "L" type. After the "new" has been clear for a number of years, the new normal can achieve "from new to normal". It is expected to continue to pursue and achieve high-quality development on the platform of the medium high-speed normal in the future.
In 2018, in order to seize this opportunity period and consolidate the supporting conditions for "new entry", it is necessary to unswervingly optimize the structure in deepening the supply side reform, take economic means as the main means, and properly handle the "three removal, one reduction and one compensation" in creating a fair competitive environment in which the fittest survive. We must guard against and resolve the risk factors in economic life based on the construction of the rule of law system and the socially acceptable operation mode; Promote targeted poverty alleviation in various regions with the customized plan of "rational supply management"; Promote environmental protection and green development with the idea of "treating both symptoms and root causes first", in combination with measures such as the introduction of environmental taxes and the reform of the price mechanism of energy and resource products.
The supporting reform to overcome difficulties is the key to the transformation and upgrading of the economic development power system. It needs the determination, courage and wisdom of all parties to "bite the bullet" to make substantive progress.
(The author of this article introduces: member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and researcher of the Chinese Academy of Financial Sciences.)
