Article/Jia Kang of China Economic 50 People Forum
The National Bureau of Statistics recently released the transcript of the first half of the national economy. The data shows that China's economic operation remains within a reasonable range, and the trend of stability and improvement tends to be obvious. The stability, coordination and sustainability of economic development are enhanced, especially the highlights of China's economic operation are increasing. We should try to take the opportunity to complete the bottoming and stabilize.
Jia Kang: China's economy has many bright spots, and six suggestions are taking advantage of the momentum The four indicators have obvious highlights
From the comprehensive observation of the economic operation since the second half of 2015, there are some data worthy of attention.
The first is "excavator index". The index is composed of Sany Heavy Industry It was launched for the first time, reflecting the big data information related to the ordering, delivery, mobilization and construction of construction machinery. Data shows that the sales market of construction machinery industry, which has been depressed for many years, has bottomed out and recovered. In the first quarter of 2016, the price of some steel products in the steel industry stabilized, and the whole industry began to recover in the second quarter; In the third quarter, the coal industry experienced a rapid rise in product prices. Meanwhile, in September 2016, PPI became positive for the first time after 54 months of negative growth. Some people think that the continuous negative PPI indicates that the main contradiction of China's economy is deflation. However, in fact, China's economy does not operate in the deflation range, and does not recognize the existence of inflation factors in China, and believes that this is an acceptable, even quite satisfactory price performance. Finally, China passed the inspection period, and until the first half of 2017, China's CPI and PPI were operating within a reasonable range.
The second is the manufacturing purchasing managers' index. Since the second half of last year, this indicator has been running steadily above the boundary between prosperity and poverty. This is to determine whether the inventory will rise or fall in the production cycle through sampling survey when the enterprise makes decentralized decisions. If the inventory rises on the whole, it means that the production and operation scale of the enterprise may expand in the next step.
The third is power consumption. In 2015, the year-on-year growth rate was only 0.5%. In 2016, this indicator rebounded to 5%. In the first half of this year, it reached about 7%, which was in line with the economic growth of GDP, and slightly ahead of it. In addition, from January to May this year, the profits of state-owned enterprises increased by 29.5% year on year. In the context of the overall improvement of state-owned enterprises, the average profit market survey data of private enterprises in the same period was 3.9%, and the indicator of this caliber was only 2.2% in state-owned enterprises, indicating that the profit of private enterprises also showed an optimistic trend.
Fourth, urban employment indicators, From January to May, the urban employment was 5.99 million, and it is estimated that the annual employment will reach more than 14 million. The urban employment indicators reflect the results of structural adjustment and development that benefits the people's livelihood. It is obvious that there is an internal relationship between the reform, tax reduction and profit concessions and other policy support, encouraging the development of the service industry and asset light.
At the same time, China's resident consumption is still relatively strong, which continues to be higher than the GDP growth rate. Since the second half of 2016, the sales of large retail enterprises have improved significantly, which is always a double-digit operation from the perspective of indicators. Although GDP is below 7%, from the perspective of monthly retail sales, except for a slightly lower level from January to February this year due to special circumstances, other months maintained double-digit growth.
Create a new dynamic mechanism
A series of data fully demonstrate the potential, market charm and attractiveness of China as the world's largest emerging economy. As the supply side structural reform continues to advance, how should we find the right focus in the future?
In 2017, when there are many bright spots and contradictions and constraints can not be ignored, we should consider the connection between short-term and long-term development, grasp the essentials of discretion, continue to improve the quality of growth, and strive to achieve the economic operation from new to normal.
First, we should adhere to the principle of "eliminating backward production capacity" based on economic means and the market mechanism of survival of the fittest in optimizing the structure, and avoid the distortion and improper practices of "one size fits all".
Second, focus on further utilizing the space of "effective investment". In our research, we emphasized that selective smart investment is effective investment, and innovative mechanisms like PPP can ensure its effectiveness. The continuity of PPP dynamic optimization should be maintained. Now we see some problems in PPP, but we can't shake the general direction of PPP innovation. There should be a standardized understanding and treatment of local government debt and "contingent debt" related to PPP.
Third, encourage innovation, respect the laws of scientific research, further handle the balance between "standardization in development" and "standardization in development", and remove inappropriate red tape in scientific research management. The implementation rules for the management system of scientific research funds that should be issued by relevant departments by the end of 2016 should be implemented as soon as possible.
Fourth, resolutely implement the spirit of the Central Committee, give the business community a good "reassurance", and continue to promote the "win-win" type of substantive mixed ownership reform.
Fifth, in terms of the healthy development of the real estate industry, we should implement the important guiding spirit of building a long-term mechanism with basic system construction as soon as possible, which involves the land system, the dual track housing system, the investment and financing system, and the real estate tax system to speed up legislation and reform.
Sixth, we should master the panorama to deepen the reform of deregulation, tax reduction and profit concession. We should design reform plans to overcome difficulties and strive for practical results for various administrative charges and hidden burdens of enterprises other than official taxes.
(The author of this article introduces: member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and researcher of the Chinese Academy of Financial Sciences.)
