Article/Jia Kang of China Economic 50 People Forum
The concept of real estate in both broad and narrow sense should not be equated with virtual economy or non real economy, so the relationship between real estate and real economy is, in general, not the "one empty and one real" relationship formed by external differences, but the relationship between the real estate industry as a part and the whole of the real economy within the real economy.
Jia Kang: Real estate cannot be regarded as non real economy With the dramatic evolution of China's real estate market situation in 2016 and the attention paid by all social parties to the challenges faced by the upgrading and development of China's real economy, how to understand and handle the relationship between real estate and the real economy has also become a hot issue. This paper tries to make a brief observation and analysis.
First of all, it should be pointed out that the real estate industry cannot be identified as a non real economy. The so-called real economy and the virtual economy are a pair of mutually "antonymous" concepts. In addition to the stocks and securities that can be clearly classified as the economic components of the virtual economy, especially financial derivatives such as options and financial futures, other economic forms, such as the logistics industry other than finance and many other service industries, None of them can be simply classified into the category of virtual economy (the concept of virtual economy itself is not doomed to be derogatory, but too much virtual economy in the whole national economy will lead to bubbles).
The real estate industry, in a broad sense, includes industrial real estate, commercial real estate and residential real estate (real estate), but in a narrow sense, in real life, people tend to refer to "real estate industry" specifically to residential real estate. The concept of real estate in both broad and narrow sense should not be equated with virtual economy or non real economy, so the relationship between real estate and real economy is, in general, not the "one empty and one real" relationship formed by external differences, but the relationship between the real estate industry as a part and the whole of the real economy within the real economy.
Secondly, we need to pay attention to the difference between the real estate industry and other components of the real economy. The real estate industry mainly provides "infrastructure hardware" such as buildings. In a narrow sense, the real estate industry mainly provides facilities for people to live in. Compared with the real economy referred to in the concepts of heavy industry and manufacturing, residential real estate is mainly consumer rather than productive.
To understand the relationship between the real estate industry and other parts of the real economy according to the law of "proportionality" in the development process of social economy and reproduction, whether their respective proportions and weights are reasonable, and whether the structural state formed is healthy, must be the object of policy guidance and reasonable adjustment in the interaction between the national economic structure and supply and demand.
Third, from the perspective of the relationship between the current Chinese real estate and other parts of the real economy, there is a problem that the housing real estate heat in the first tier cities and some second and third tier cities is too high, which has caused social pressure and public anxiety that cannot be ignored.
In 2016, the "hot" side of the property market has become the "main aspect of contradiction" with the most pressure characteristics in the second half of the year. The "9.30 New Deal" means that the government has to launch administrative measures such as "purchase and loan restrictions" again under pressure to cool the property market in these regions. It is easy to understand the dissatisfaction and panic of residents who are willing to buy houses with the rapid rise of house prices. What I want to point out here is that in fact, many local government leaders are also afraid of and worried about the rising prices and house prices in their jurisdictions.
For example, Zhuhai's plot adjacent to Zhongshan some time ago created a new high of "land king" in the bidding, auction and listing process. The city's leadership was very worried that such an "overheated" orientation would suppress the willingness of market people to support the upgrading of industrial clusters that the government attaches great importance to in Zhuhai, and hit and dampen the enthusiasm of entrepreneurs to invest in the local manufacturing industry. If such problems occur in many regions, it will indeed cause China to have insufficient financial support for the real economy and the deviation of "getting rid of the false to the real", plus the deviation of "getting rid of the production side and the consumption side" in the investment of the real economy.
Fourthly, we should analyze the interest drive behind the above problems and the problems existing in the relevant institutional mechanisms in order to find a solution. The "heat" shown by the rising housing price reflects the strong demand, insufficient supply and profit seeking market players in the competition in this field when the factors are mobile. They will follow the guidance of the price change trend and invest the disposable factors in these "hot" areas in pursuit of high returns - to engage in a market economy. This benefit driven factor flow is justifiable, What the government needs to pay attention to is to maintain a fair competitive environment and promote the market to select the best and eliminate the worst, and to make up for "market failure" and implement necessary government guidance.
Both of them need basic institutional construction as the premise and institutional support. In the field of residential real estate in China, the operating mechanism has basically been in line with the market competition mechanism. For example, it is necessary for commercial housing developers to obtain land through "bidding, auction and listing" competition, and for the sales of finished houses provided by developers to follow the market in the competition. However, there are still problems. First, fair competition is often insufficient, Even distortion occurs (for example, developers often have to informally "deal with the relationship" with government management departments); Second, the market failure related to the residential real estate industry needs to be adjusted and compensated by the government.
This kind of market failure is reflected in the "housing" problem of low-income "vulnerable groups", which cannot be solved in the commercial housing market. The government needs to plan and lead the construction and optimization of management to provide affordable housing;
Second, the supply of residential land must be limited, which has the nature of natural monopoly, and needs to be supported by high-level land development planning and reasonable land supply, as well as the related coordinated land acquisition and storage system and basic farmland "occupation compensation balance" system;
Third, it is also necessary to consider that in the stage of China's rapid urbanization, the overall real estate price in the central region will inevitably show a "upward curve". It is necessary to learn from international experience, introduce the real estate tax system through legislation in the housing ownership link, as a "ballast" in the long-term development, and curb the "speculation" in the market And its inevitable fluctuation.
The first of the above three articles has a basic framework in China, but we must also actively improve the supply system of public rental housing and housing with common property rights, as well as its management and operation systems and mechanisms; Article 2 In general, there are still obvious shortcomings. It is urgent to expand the pilot reform of "land ticket" and generally optimize the land development rules and land acquisition and storage system; Third, there are only two "flexible cut in" real estate tax pilot projects in Shanghai and Chongqing. The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China clearly proposed to "speed up the legislation of real estate tax and timely promote reform", which urgently needs to solve the problem of how to implement it.
It is precisely because the basic system construction in the above three aspects is not in place, the overall feature of China's residential real estate market in the previous decade's several rounds of policy regulation is to address the symptoms rather than the root causes, and the government acts back and forth at both ends of the purchase and loan restrictions and the cancellation of purchase and loan restrictions, known as "swing", "roller coaster ride", neither hot nor cold, Both the government and the people are anxious and uncomfortable, while the transaction price of commercial housing in the first tier cities and other urban central areas close to the high-end or middle and high-end shows a rapid rise in general (at the same time, the market differentiation between "fire" and "ice" has become more obvious in recent years).
Therefore, the "comparative benefits" of investment in a considerable number of central regions, the tilt towards consumer residential real estate and the accompanying indifference to the development of productive real economy investment have become an important issue that cannot be ignored in the relationship between the two.
According to the above analysis of this article, it is not difficult to draw a conclusion: the idea and key point of correctly handling the relationship between residential real estate and the rest of the real economy should be to seek both the symptoms and the root causes in the real estate regulation, and pay close attention to the basic "dual track overall planning" housing system, land system reform and real estate tax system reform to overcome difficulties, so as to form a combination of guidance The long-term mechanism to promote the healthy development of the residential real estate industry will make the transaction in this market tend to be more stable in price and reasonable in profit, and at the same time, it will correct and prevent the deviation of insufficient investment support from productive real economy sectors in market competition and factor flow.
This issue of basic system construction and building a long-term mechanism is also the explicit requirements and guidelines of the recent Central Economic Work Conference, and we should actively implement them.
(The author of this article introduces: member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and researcher of the Chinese Academy of Financial Sciences.)
