Article/Jia Kang of China Economic 50 People Forum
China's growth space still ranks first among all economies in the world. China is where the world's largest market potential lies. China's growth space, accompanied by industrialization, urbanization, marketization, internationalization, high-tech, will provide a series of opportunities.
Jia Kang: China's economic growth space still ranks first in the world The new normal marks the inevitable arrival of a law that is now in the process of transformation. Its "new" is clear to everyone, but this "constant" has not yet been realized. We have definitely bid farewell to the high-speed development stage where the average annual growth level of GDP has reached double digits. The last time that the double digit development appeared was after China successfully withstood the impact of the world financial crisis in 2010.
The arrival of a new stage of medium - and high-speed growth is in line with the development law of general economies from a worldwide perspective. China has entered the middle income stage in the past few years. Generally speaking, the growth rate of each economy corresponding to the middle income stage can no longer be high. China has also logically shifted to the middle high speed. This is where the "new" of the new normal is, and it is an intuitive phenomenon.
Under the condition of medium and high speed, Chinese society will also experience a series of changes. For example, in the middle income stage, China will develop the whole society into a "jujube shaped" structure according to the will and possibility, that is, the middle class will continue to cultivate, grow, and become the main body in the middle of society. If China's social structure is still like a pyramid in general from the perspective of different income classes, then the base should be gradually closed down. The proportion of the so-called vulnerable groups is becoming less and less, and the proportion of the particularly successful rich class cannot be much higher than the conventional economy. While the two ends are relatively small, The middle class will certainly increase its proportion according to the growth trend.
General Secretary Xi Jinping stressed that the people's aspiration for a better life is our goal. The "new normal" should be "always" on the platform of building an upgraded version of economic and social development and improving the quality of medium - and high-speed growth. This growth platform has been extended to the strategic goal of modernization "China Dream" for China's building of a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.
Three key words of the new normal
The first key word of the new normal is "medium high speed". Understanding the macroeconomic level from such an intuitive point of view is to say "often". "Constant" is to complete a bottoming out after the phase transition, and then stabilize the overall growth trend. After stabilizing, the docking should be a medium - and high-speed growth platform with a relatively long period of time as possible.
There are obvious differences in academic circles in this regard. Professor Lin Yifu, the most optimistic professor, is still insisting. He emphasizes that if China's reform and structural adjustment are well done, China's economy should still have a growth period of about 8% in 20 years. He uses international comparisons and has a large set of his arguments. More researchers tend not to be optimistic, and some think that China will fall to the 5%~6% range within a few years. I don't pay much attention to whether it is about 6%, 7% or 6.5%. The key is that when the speed is stable, it must be an "upgraded version" with improved growth quality.
The second key word should be to follow the medium high speed strong structure optimization. After the intuitive reduction of economic growth rate, this "constant" will fall to the most critical structural optimization in the growth state. What follows is actually what we call "the substantial pursuit is to improve the quality of economic growth", and the improvement of the quality of economic growth falls into the humanistic position to make social members ordinary people (44.260, 0.23, 0.52%) In their pursuit of life, they can get substantial benefits according to their wishes, and the benefits are sustainable. This second keyword will obviously bring some challenges. It is not easy to optimize the structure. How can the market play the role of survival of the fittest, and how can the government play a better role? There are a series of problems that need to be solved in the process of creating an upgraded version.
Then it will be extended to the third key word, namely "innovation driven". I understand that the "Chang" that serves the new normal can be formed by relying on the real innovation drive. Its function is to hedge the downward pressure. In the process of completing the bottoming out and stabilizing, structural optimization is formed through innovation, and a series of upward factors are combined in the upgraded version. The new impetus and new upward factors, after hedging the downward factors, not only form a stable medium and high speed growth platform, but also enable structural optimization to further promote the liberation of productivity, which can reflect the release of potential and vitality in the process of continuous development on the path of modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, The whole macro development trend is characterized by an upgraded version.
In this regard, if you can briefly summarize, I think there are three levels of innovation that are obvious. First, from the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee to the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, the top-level plan for comprehensive reform - 336 specific reform operation tasks in the 60 articles of the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee have received the rule of law and modernization characteristics of the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. Whether we can overcome difficulties and promote reform under the top-level planning layout is called institutional innovation. Institutional innovation opens the space for management innovation and technological innovation.
Management innovation and technological innovation do not completely depend on institutional innovation, but from the macro level, I always emphasize that China has experienced an economic and social transition, and in a decisive sense, it is the institutional innovation that opens up the space for potential and vitality release, so that developing economies like us can still keep up in the process of catching up, It is able to seek common destiny and win-win situation in the benign interaction between China and other social economies, and demonstrate China's advantage of backwardness in the process of multi win peaceful development - strive to catch up step by step in a series of fields, and finally reach the forefront.
There are many "good cards" in China
I think China can play many good cards now. For example, effective investment corresponds to a large number of specific issues in Chinese society, from infrastructure to service industry development, to livelihood improvement, public works and so on. The PPP (cooperation between government and social capital) mechanism that is being actively promoted is actually to pull qualified state-owned enterprises together within the scope of cooperation with the government, use social capital outside the government or not directly controlled by the government to do public works together, and provide hardware support for improving people's livelihood. It will support the stamina of China's development and the creation of an upgraded version in the medium and long term.
If these projects are selected slightly, they can be found everywhere, such as the upgrading of the public transport system in the central area, the improvement of various functional areas, the protection of the ecological environment, and the construction of a new central area. What does it need? It is now known as the representative area of China's overcapacity: steel and cement. Of course, we also need labor force, basic management force and technical force.
China's factors of production are not lacking in the vision of its own unified market, as well as in the vision of interaction with other economies in the world. Many major factors are accused of being in a state of surplus. If we organize a batch of effective investment relatively quickly, I think some excess capacity will be converted into effective capacity fairly quickly. This can be reflected in the need for structural optimization and adaptation to modernization. Here, we must deal with the problem of investment and financing. After all, there is a time lag. Many public projects need to be built for two or three years, or even five or eight years, before the benefits can be reflected. How to deal with the connection here? This is another test of scientific decision-making, but after all, there is space and opportunity.
In addition, we must recognize that China is now at a very critical stage, and the macroeconomic trend should continue to complete the whole process of understanding and adapting to the new normal, build an upgraded version, and improve the quality of growth. Going forward does face some uncertainty. In the end, can our comprehensive reform and comprehensive legalization be carried out as expected? There are various challenges, difficulties and tests. But after all, with challenges and tests come all kinds of opportunities. From the perspective of "human effort", we attach more importance to opportunities. From the perspective of development and overall macroeconomic situation, China will be able to avoid the so-called "collapse" and "precipitous decline".
China's growth space still ranks first among all economies in the world. China is where the world's largest market potential lies. China's growth space, accompanied by industrialization, urbanization, marketization, internationalization, high-tech, etc., will provide a series of opportunities, followed by China's already basic consumption wave supported by income growth. Although China's macro economic framework is uncertain, we can see the opportunities, tests and development space accompanying the potential.
(The author of this article introduces: President of Huaxia New Supply Economics Research Institute and researcher of China Academy of Financial Sciences.)
