Article/Xu Quansheng, columnist of Sina Finance eWatch (WeChat official account: sinaeguancha)
To change the appearance of the countryside is not to be compensated by financial subsidies. The most important thing to activate the vitality of the countryside is to make profits in the agricultural industry, attract talents and attract funds to the agricultural industry. Just like the real estate industry today, why are funds flocking to it?
Subsidies alone are not enough to change the appearance of rural areas In recent years, due to the promotion of urbanization in China, the development of science and technology, and the change of agricultural structure with the rural population, agriculture has got rid of the pattern of small-scale farmers, and there have been major adjustments in rural areas. The speed of agricultural circulation has been significantly accelerated. Individualized small agricultural industries have gradually been replaced by large farmers. The opportunities for mechanized large-scale farming of agriculture are highlighted, Under the influence of this new trend, the demand for financing has also changed greatly. In the past, farmers' credit lines were small, and many of them were credit loans, which have not adapted to the changes in the situation. The scale of agriculture indicates that the financing scale should also keep pace with the times. However, there are many practical things in agriculture and rural areas that restrict the flow of funds to agriculture, Therefore, the expansion of agriculture in the direction of industrialization will be restricted. The integration of finance and agriculture is a necessary condition for the industrialization of agriculture, so the combination of banks and agricultural industry is inevitable.
Although China has vast land, it also has a large population. Many of the land is not suitable for farming. The population is almost concentrated in livable areas, so there is little land allocated to each person. The more livable the place is, the higher the population concentration is, the less land will be distributed. Due to the conditions, farmers do not use much capital for fertilizers, seeds, and pesticides, so they seldom borrow from banks, Even if there is a shortage of funds for agricultural production, farmers generally choose to borrow money from each other among their neighbors. In addition, banks rarely issue small agricultural loans to farmers, mainly because the number of land operated by each household is small and the credit line is limited. If the procedures of each loan are complicated according to the bank procedures, The bank really does not have so many people and energy to make such small loans.
Therefore, the small-scale agriculture in rural areas has not been developed, which has limited the transformation of agriculture to a certain extent. Why should we promote the industrialization of agriculture? Agricultural industrialization is mainly to concentrate resources, improve efficiency and reduce costs. Each family in rural areas grows a few mu of farmland, which is not suitable for large-scale machinery investment, manual investment, and capital investment. Therefore, industrialization has the function of saving various factors, and has the effect of improving agricultural competitiveness. The industrialization of agriculture is also a necessary path for modern agriculture.
But what is the relationship between agricultural industrialization and banks? The capital market in China is limited because of the great risk characteristics of agriculture, and the level of financing for enterprises involved in agriculture in the capital market is also rare. Therefore, it is difficult to integrate the capital market with the market of agricultural industry.
In addition, China's financing mode is dominated by banks, which account for more than 80% of China's total financing, so the capital demand of the agricultural industry is still inseparable from banks. However, due to the scissors gap between agriculture and industry, it is difficult for agriculture to obtain financing from banks. Although the state has repeatedly ordered bank funds to tilt to agriculture, banks have also changed ways to count loans that are slightly related to agriculture or simply unrelated to agriculture into agricultural support data to meet the higher requirements.
So why do banks not cooperate with agricultural credit? From the perspective of risk, the risk of agriculture does not disappear because of industrialization. The risk of agriculture is inherent. For banks, there are three major risk sources: production risk, market risk and mortgage risk. First, let's talk about the production risk, because agriculture is greatly affected by the weather, such as rice production, even if the seeds are sown correctly, fertilizer is applied properly The pesticide is sprayed properly. When the harvest season comes, the harvest is in sight. If the weather is not good, a rainstorm may destroy the hope. The second is market risk. Even if there is a bumper harvest, the market is overstocked due to too many similar products, and the price of products produced drops sharply. The last is mortgage risk, because there are some policy reasons in rural areas that make qualified collateral few, and the "two rights" mortgage loans of banks are only theoretically feasible, which is far from the real implementation.
Some people may ask: why do banks still need such old-fashioned collateral when they are so powerful at big data analysis? First of all, let's talk about how much data big data can generate in the rural market. Rural Internet use habits are limited to some students who have been admitted to colleges and universities, but they can't do agriculture. Almost all of them have entered the city and become urban citizens. Those who have not been admitted to universities but have a little culture have also squeezed into the city. In most rural areas of China, Except for a few young teachers in rural schools, it's hard to find young people at home.
Some large contractors are also a little old. They don't want to be involved in computers and the Internet, but they really have no way to get started. Some children in rural areas buy a computer for their elders, so that they can relieve their loneliness on computers. Because almost all of them go out to work in rural areas, and almost all of their neighbors are locked, but the elders know nothing about computers, and they can't find anyone who wants to ask questions without shame, Sometimes children come back half a year later and see that the computer is full of dust. They ask what they can do because their elders can't read much. Therefore, the transaction habit in rural areas is still dominated by cash transactions. Big data that can be traced online does not work in rural areas. Even if Ma Yun's Taobao goes to the countryside, progress is slow.
The main purpose described by the author is to highlight the reality of rural areas. To change the rural landscape, financial subsidies can not make up for it. The most important thing to activate rural vitality is to make profits in the agricultural industry, attract talents and attract funds to gather in the agricultural industry. Just like the real estate industry today, why are funds flocking to it?
It is mainly because of its high profits, such as bank loans, which are low for customers who buy houses, and high for small rural customers. However, banks do not want to lend to rural areas. The main reason for not lending is risk. The higher the risk, the higher the interest rate. These two are in direct proportion. So how can agriculture become a "sweet cake"? It is to reduce the risk of agricultural industry. According to the current situation of rural agriculture, we will talk about reducing the financing risk of agriculture from three aspects.
1： Establish a rural credit network. For small-scale farmers, the credit extension of bank credit largely comes from honesty, which can reduce transaction costs. In an honest market, people do not need to set many barriers to prevent to promote the safety of transactions.
However, the recent collapse of rural integrity comes from the flow of people. In the past, the small scale of farmers' life circle would have lost the living space if they were not honest and could not see the acquaintance society. Now, because of the great mobility of people, the limited impact of dishonesty, and the lack of restrictions on the dishonest, the economy is most vulnerable to damage, and the banks, especially those in rural areas, are often the first to be affected. A villager evades debt and does not pay it back. In this narrow space, it is likely to affect a large number of people to follow suit.
Therefore, there is an urgent need to establish a culture of integrity in rural areas. At present, the country is also strengthening the construction of this aspect, and restricting the consumption of those who evade or abandon their debts. However, the restriction on rural consumption is not very effective, because the consumption of those who break their promises in rural areas is limited, so it does not play a big role in rural areas to cut through those who break their promises.
In fact, the state should set limits on the scope of dishonesty by category. For rural dishonest people, not only should they be restricted from buying houses and cars, but also the key is that all banks should be linked to restrict dishonest people from opening accounts and opening cards. The state should reduce the amount of subsidies such as social security subsidies, so as to make rural dishonest people feel that the gains are not worth the losses, A good system can restrain people's bad ideas and make it difficult to move without honesty, so that the water of credit will flow to rural agricultural industry without resistance.
2、 Guarantee policies should be set for agricultural risks. For farmers engaged in large-scale production of agricultural industry, the bank's credit base comes from mortgage guarantee. Because of the operational risks of agricultural industry and the particularity of rural land, in addition to mortgage guarantee, banks pay more attention to what sharing mechanism is behind the agricultural industry to reduce the bank's credit risk, Therefore, the government should establish a rural industry contracting exit mechanism, establish a rural industry circulation and transaction service center, organize circulation and transaction again for those large mortgage contracting households who cannot repay loans, and ensure that bank funds can be safely invested in the agricultural industry.
3、 In order to promote the marketization of agricultural industry, only competition can make any product dynamic, and agricultural industry can not be excluded. The price of agricultural industry has always been "limited", and the purchase is restricted at the protective price. The price of grain is determined according to the relationship between supply and demand in the market. If the protective price is adopted and the price response is not sensitive, the market order will be disrupted, and people will lose the price guidance if they want to produce anything. Therefore, the market plays a decisive role in resource allocation and will also play a role in the agricultural industry market. Only agriculture is also market-oriented, The marketization of interest rates of banks will be better connected with the marketization of agricultural industry, which is conducive to the linkage of financial and market prices, and it will be possible to adjust the agricultural industrial structure.
To sum up, today, China's capital market is not very mature, and banks are the important drivers of agricultural modernization and industrialization.
(The author of this article introduces: a senior financial commentator who has worked in the front line of the financial industry for a long time.)
