Article/Jia Kang of China Economic 50 People Forum
It seems that there is no suspense about the 2020 well-off society in an all-round way. The target of annual growth in the next few years is close to 7%. The important intermediate goal of the 2020 well-off society in the whole year is completely achievable 。
There is no doubt about achieving a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020 The modernization of our country's governance system and capacity, and the technological trend of modernization are the problems that China has been seeking to solve since the Opium War as a national country. After entering the reform and opening up, Deng Xiaoping outlined a three-step strategy to push forward. Under this grand strategy, the realization of the Chinese Dream around 2050 is now in the deep meaning of the core concept of governance.
The difference between governance and management regulation emphasizes that the common trend no longer emphasizes the system structure formed by the simple management regulators of the government from a strategic perspective, but more emphasizes the full interaction between other multiple subjects of the government, and combines management and self-management, regulation and self-regulation, and organization and self-organization in a fully unleashed potential, dynamic, modern and inclusive growth, The arrangement and mechanism building of the most critical management system of this modernization trend leads to a document.
The second key statement is that the modern market system mentioned the modern market system many times, and the breakthrough finally established the market economy target model after the southern tour. At that time, it was said that the market played a fundamental role in the allocation of resources. Generally speaking, the market played a decisive role in the allocation of resources, Of course, it is quite complicated to discuss our material objects in detail. The market is not everything, and the government should play a good role.
Such a breakthrough has made it clear how the government can play a better role. In the overall situation, at best, you can play an auxiliary role, because the decisive role of the market in the front, you should respect the market more fully and cooperate with the market more actively.
In terms of the most fundamental property rights mechanism of the internal market, I really like the long-term impact of his implementation. After discussing enterprise reform for so many years, the vitality and potential of the micro main body has been released. I have realized that the standard situation of the modern enterprise system represents the form of shareholding system, and has said that there is no institutional problem with shareholding system. Socialism can be used, Later, it was said in the document that the shareholding system is the main form of public ownership, but it still cannot solve the problem of the dominance of state-owned shares and the problem of social capital penetration Glass Problems with walls.
The important form of the current basic system is mixed ownership. My understanding is to emphasize that the future reform will fully mix the national and non national, public and non public production structures within each of the tens of millions of market subjects, which means inclusive growth. All kinds of interest subjects are now mixed under the legal protection of norms, Multi win and win-win in the mixed state, this has solved the past dispute, whether the country retreats and the people advance or the country advances and the people retreat, how to grasp the main line of enterprise reform, this label cannot argue out a result is a deadlock.
Now I think it is necessary to desalinate the label and open the whole label, which is fully consistent with the development of human society. We can now observe how the whole property right of socialized mass production is developed as the cornerstone of modern enterprise system, and how to solve the problem one or two hundred years ago, Like the contradiction between socialization and the form of possession that Marx thought very difficult to solve, our big problem at the current stage of development in China is the very important strategic judgment of the era of peace and development.
This strategy judges that the inclusive growth of modern national governance and modern market system has been pushed to the forefront of human civilization. I think three keys follow these two keywords, which is very clear that the foundation and important pillar of national governance is finance, and we should build a modern financial system.
So it is logical that after the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, according to the first half of this year's reform, the Political Bureau gave a clear guidance on the first specific reform plan, which is to reform his plan design through fiscal and tax support. Now, according to this plan, we have been working hard to promote the specific issues of fiscal and tax reform, Of course, according to the fiscal and tax reform as a starting point and a logical opening gong and drum, we can see the household registration system reform, property rights reversal system reform, as well as the administrative and political system reform and judicial reform mentioned at the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. The key word should also be extended to the rule of law, which is the comprehensive rule of law.
Under this concept, the theory that finance is the foundation and important pillar of national governance is rigorous, because from the perspective of the whole economy, the problem of resource allocation and the comprehensive impact of the economy extended to society is actually the problem of how to allocate public resources in the separate administrative systems.
The allocation of public resources will certainly affect the allocation of resources in the whole society. As the main body, the government must play a better role. When performing its own functions, it must first solve the problem that any function must be supported by financial resources. Under this logic, we should look beyond finance to understand its role in the overall situation, In retrospect, we should look at the specific ideas and priorities of the specific financial supporting reform.
Now it seems that there is no doubt that we will have a well-off society in 2020. The target of annual growth in the next few years will be close to 7%. The important intermediate goal of the vision of a well-off society in 2020 is completely achievable, However, the key requirement of the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee is to add the historical requirement of overcoming difficulties that a comprehensive reform plan has achieved decisive results in 2020, which is not easy to overcome. This is to break through the relationship of interest solidification. Any breakthrough in the relationship of interest solidification is very, very difficult.
Now, when it comes to finance and taxation, the plan of supporting reform of finance and taxation clearly outlines the specific reform items in three aspects. In the case of establishing a modern finance and taxation system to serve the general governance of the country's finance and taxation, the first area of finance and taxation reform is the reform of budget management, and the specific essentials of this are supporting reform items that lead the whole body.
The first is to improve the transparency of finance and taxation. Specifically, the allocation of public resources for finance and taxation must be reflected in the arrangement of budget. First, the integrity of the full caliber budget is achieved. That is, all government finance is integrated into the budget system, and there is no longer the concept of extra budgetary funds, a previously solved problem.
Now it is emphasized to implement it into the specific financial operation. Transparency should be further improved. The previous years have also made efforts to pave the way for this. This transparency is actually the right to know of the public after the transparency of the public resource allocation under the complete concept, The transparency of where government money comes from and where it is used to perform what functions requires the right to know. The right to know is followed by the right to suggest and supervise. If through a series of construction, if the democratic governance of the country is managed according to the law, according to this governance, it will be promoted to what the Communist Party said at the beginning, and the people will become the masters of the country in real life.
We must admit that such a basic logic can not be achieved without supporting reforms in the process from serving the people to being the masters of the people. This is how the real operation is manifested in the scope of the government's functions, activities, directions, key policy points and concrete performance of the budget system. Since all financial resources enter the budget system, Technically, it has been made clear that at least the general provisions on revenue and expenditure, capital budget, general public revenue and expenditure budget, capital budget and social security budget fund budget combine to form a budget system. Each part is relatively independent, but it should be coordinated together.
For example, the capital budget was first announced by the central government in 2008, and the SASAC was established only with him [Weibo] More than one hundred super large enterprises under their management should make clear what kind of asset income contribution they make to the national treasury every year according to the rules. There is a basic arrangement for the handover of assets such as 0, 5, and 10. Now it is increased to 25% for tobacco and 25% for the handover of asset income.
At the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee, the overall return on assets of our state-owned enterprises reached 30%, which is a process of promotion. Only by following this budget form can we abide by the rules and expectations in our work. The rules in this specific budget are also working hard, At the beginning of the launch of the capital budget, it was clearly stated that the part of the capital budget that is necessary to upgrade assets can be used for public functions and social security functions, that is, the capital budget can be transferred out, but again, it did not mention that other budgets are transferred to the capital budget, which is a step by step clear system rules.
The fund budget covers what you may be concerned about. The local government has been discussing these years about the rules of where the average land revenue is reflected and how to manage under the so-called land finance. It is very clear that in the economic budget, the central government has more than 20 kinds of funds, The Three Gorges Fund and the airport construction fund now included in the air ticket should be fully managed under the budget situation.
It also emphasized the key areas of budget expenditure. In the future, there will be no linkage arrangement. This is in line with the law of financial management. The original combination of various linkages, from agriculture, rural areas, to science and technology education, to family planning, has been 48% of the whole financial arrangement is broken, and some logic cannot continue to push forward, The expenditure of a certain key area should be higher than the regular growth rate of the financial sector, and the proportion of unlimited going out will become larger and larger. Therefore, the highest decision now has this reason. These key areas are still the key areas, but they are no longer simply linked in the budget arrangements, so that more emphasis will be placed on overall coordination.
Further down, there is a technical requirement in the budget reform, that is, to prepare a cross year rolling budget. The central level now prepares the budget and the local level first tries to catch up with the central level's improvement. In fact, we have observed this technical improvement for a long time, and we noticed it when we visited scholars in the United States decades ago.
We have considered for many years and finally decided that China will start to prepare such a trans annual budget at the central level. The benefits are obviously in line with the foresight and overall coordination we advocate. It is more scientific and reasonable to arrange how the government functions are performed, and it also makes us taxpayers see how to connect, The benefits are very obvious, but the difficulty is also conceivable.
First of all, there must be a decent budget. Who can make such a decent prediction? The time relationship cannot be expanded. How can the United States spare no effort to support the federal budget discussed by several relevant departments through its huge expert system? China is now determined to do the same, This must be explored for a long time and gradually mature to make this thing more and more decent. Of course, the level of public resource allocation is improved, which certainly conforms to the logic of maximizing the public interest of performance required by current financial governance.
In addition, there are very clear requirements for improving transfer payments. General transfer payments are more important than others. Special transfer payments need to be integrated. Some such special items that can be allocated competitively by the market need to be transferred to the market. In the aspect of the government, cash flow is canceled. After some special items are integrated, they can no longer be used as local funds, Because the main purpose of transfer payment is to support the underdeveloped areas. In the underdeveloped areas, you force them to do so by requiring them to provide financial support, which increases the whole economic life. These issues are very clear requirements of the current reform plan after repeated discussions over the years.
In addition, strengthening the implementation and management of local debt, regulating tax incentives and other aspects are the specific contents of budget reform. I just want to make a point of the time relationship here. I will talk about local debt. Local debt disputes have been going on for many years. The budget law has undergone twists and turns for two governments and finally achieved positive results. The positive expression of the budget law for local debt is to open the door, At the same time, many specific restrictions have been made.
Now very roughly, according to the current regulatory framework, I think it reflects the progress of legislation, but it is transitional in general. After the last trial of this legislative progress, there was another reversal. The second review draft cancelled the first review. Now after the third and fourth reviews, local bonds have been issued. Now it is determined that the annual issuance scale is determined by the central government, and the issuing subject is the provincial government, The central government of the provincial government is divided into the provincial administrative regions. Although the local government's rating, it does not mean that anyone with strong development ability can make more contributions. The total amount has died, and then all levels below the provincial level can make contributions at the provincial level and share the status of the provincial level.
This end is stuck. We look at the size of local debt in the next year. It seems that it is difficult to mention trillion yuan next year. It is timely to mention the stock proportion of trillion yuan of the whole local debt. After considering the three kinds of proportion, if we throw away the past debt, there will be more than 10 trillion yuan in the future. So now this open channel blocks the hidden channel. This open channel is far from keeping with the original requirements, The local transitional platform should continue to play its role.
Now the clear documents are stuck. Local platforms are not allowed to add new debts. By the end of the year, all localities have screened and reported the hidden debts formed by all local government financing platforms. In fact, the relevant departments of the Ministry of Finance are obliged to exert accountability pressure to force local governments to digest the stock of local debts in the future, In fact, the total debt scale of the local government has played a sustainable role. The replacement of its transition cannot be completely expected to be sunny.
In a sense, there are some parts that can be replaced but can't affect the overall situation. What we are giving now is to vigorously develop social capital and cooperation. The PPP we have done is now translated into cooperation between the government and society. A series of guidance is given. This is a new situation that I think is outlined in the aspect of debt regulation, A series of opportunities and challenges brought by this new situation should vigorously play a positive role in the way of PPP.
The requirements for the rule of law and for the cultivation of the spirit of contract, as well as for the role of some specialization, are very high. Since this is a very high-end, unprecedented, very obvious emphasis on the promotion, there are now a variety of related domestic and foreign elements, This aspect should become a very important innovation that we will pay attention to in the financial capital market in the future.
In the specific promotion process of PPP, there will also be opportunities for a series of potential vitality. For example, the typical English abbreviation SPV of PPP, the so-called special project company, is a standard form of mixed ownership, and the inherent logic of this SPV is that it naturally does not tend to be dominated by the government.
The good performance of the government is to mobilize social capital with as few shares as possible, and play the so-called role of "pulling out the weight of one two". The more this structure is reflected, the better the level of work done by the government in this area will be reflected. This is a natural breakthrough in the market under the current concept of national governance, This is the first aspect of the budget management reform that we can see. It has a supporting effect on a series of key points.
The second major aspect of fiscal and tax reform is the six major tasks of tax reform. The previous reform of replacing business tax with value-added tax was officially announced this year, as well as the carbon resource tax that began on December 21. This resource tax will also be extended to other metal and non-metallic mines, as well as the natural resources of water flow. The reform of replacing business tax with value-added tax and resource tax is the reform of turnover tax, The solution of replacing business tax with VAT makes the tax system more concise and neutral, promotes upgrading and improves the cost performance ratio of output, and so on.
Of course, the resource tax is his internal view. China's resource products, energy products, price comparison relationship, supporting reform of the price formation mechanism, promote energy conservation and consumption reduction, and form a mechanism like that under the indirect regulation in the middle of the whole economy and society, tens of thousands of enterprises try their best to develop products in their own interests.
While these two reforms are clear, in fact, I think the other reform that has been repeatedly discussed internally should go to the society to make a formal information disclosure at the end of this year and obviously at the beginning of this year, that is, the reform of the consumption tax. In this way, the local system is a slow variable, and what major taxes will support the local people to live on in the future is a good alternative, The most important consumption tax is tobacco, alcohol, fuel, automobiles, etc.
But it also has its own specific optimization of water quality luxury. If other large incomes are pushed to the post exam stage and no longer collected in the production, wholesale and retail sectors, the tax will be handed over to the local government correctly. In fact, the consumption tax or retail tax will not motivate the local government at once, He will also encourage local governments to pay more attention to the market construction services in their own jurisdictions, so that the market in their own jurisdictions can reflect the prosperity of both purchase and sales while strengthening themselves.
However, it is undeniable that there may be some differences in income between developed regions and underdeveloped regions at different levels of the market, but it is estimated that there will not be much distortion. This is a concept that we have repeatedly discussed internally. It is likely that the relevant information will be disclosed in a short time.
The third reform has been discussed repeatedly in accordance with practice during the year, and public information has been given for the first two items, while the last three environmental taxes and real estate taxes. The basic requirement now is to speed up the legislation. After the legislation, it will be implemented within the scope according to the laws reviewed and passed. The main cost of environmental tax will be changed into tax, In fact, the basic things that must be done after the compromise is made in the fierce internal dispute. The cost reduction of various emission taxes ensures the actual regulatory effect. In the future, the environmental tax will even discuss the mechanism of carbon tax in Europe. The central document of the very fierce dispute is not involved now, and it will be further discussed later.
The real estate tax is a very sensitive issue. There will be various statements in the public opinion when the dispute is fierce. The simplest statement is that the general direction of the tax reform has been locked by the central government. Although we heard different opinions at the standing committee level when we participated in this discussion, and once it was written on the document, the tax system was pushed forward. More than ten years ago, the property tax reform was proposed and the property tax pilot was carried out, Including the construction of a tax system in which residents' housing ownership links the tax revenue, and the original gaps should be filled.
The Chongqing Shanghai pilot project adopted the concept of real estate tax at that time, which was launched within the scope of the State Council's authorization by the People's Congress in 1986. Now it is necessary to speed up the legislation of real estate tax, and the legislative business department explains that because the legislation goes first, we will now see how the legislation evolves. This year, the big speaker of the two sessions of the NPC and the CPPCC made it clear that they would enter the legislative process as soon as possible, So far, no announcement has been made on the launch of this program, but I don't think it can be delayed. At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, there must be a statement.
Once entering the legislative procedure of the National People's Congress, the first instance, the second instance, the third instance and the third instance will have fierce disputes, which must be widely solicited by the society. The number of solicited opinions must reach a new high. We will observe how the legislation changes. Once the legislation is completed and implemented in accordance with the law, it will be OK. It is likely that no result will come out next year, which may be pushed from 15 years to 16 years, The key points of the reform of fiscal and tax supporting facilities should be basically realized.
Because of the clear information we have heard, the top decision-makers believe that 17 years is a very important node, and they hope that some important things can be done in 16 years. 17 years is the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. We have highlighted the important reform chassis in the first five years, and transferred the legislative process of 15 years to 16 years to promote this legislation to the state of approval by the National People's Congress as much as possible, If this is the case, we will also report it to the public at the end of 2016.
2017 is a problem for Chinese cities and towns to implement together. In this way, we can see the previous repeated orders to speed up the implementation of the whole China's real estate registration and joint insurance. In 2018, the urban and rural areas will be fully covered, and the city will certainly seize this opportunity in 2016 in advance, and the relevant departments of urban networking will be able to form a reliable one.
Once the real estate tax has passed the legislation, as a guarantee for its operation under the technical support, this is an internal set of analysis. This sentence is a lot of interpretations that may be misunderstood. Now, based on the rough line prediction of an open information observed by myself, So the development of the legal text to speed up the final formation of legislation and comply with the implementation is still a general event, and we will wait to see how this process evolves.
But what I emphasize personally here is that I have repeatedly stressed my own point of view that China can foresee that the housing ownership tax link can not copy the American model for a long historical period, and it must be adjusted later for the first unit. This necessity makes legal operability possible in real life, The establishment of the framework of this system is the most critical. Under the constraints of various current conditions, if the emphasis on the operation method like that of the United States is equal to the destruction of this reform, it is difficult for Chinese society to accept this state of affairs.
Including institutional officials, we should give the deduction of the first unit. We can talk about the reason of how much the first unit should be deducted or how many square meters should be deducted. The most important thing is to rationally discuss the process of China's modernization towards a republic, The real estate tax involves the legislative process of thousands of households, which is a good way for everyone to rationally understand the modern society and consider the handling of various related interests in modern society. This is the five items mentioned in the tax system reform.
In addition, there is no timetable for item 6 and item 6, but in the middle is the personal income tax. The Third Plenary Session said that the proportion of direct tax should be gradually increased, and one real estate tax and one personal income tax can be operated, even though the future study of inheritance and gift tax cannot be known now, and China cannot standardize the implementation of official property reports.
There are also some official formula systems above certain levels. The government cannot legislate. What can be operated now is the real estate tax and personal income tax. In the future, once the addition of environmental tax depresses the level of corporate income tax, the basic pattern is like this. Therefore, the tax reform is very complicated, which involves all aspects of interests. In general, the central government has given six tasks.
The third aspect is very brief about optimizing and adjusting the central and local systems, including rationalizing the real power. We believe that this framework must flatten the three-level framework, and the implementation of the five level framework below the provincial level is inexplicable.
If the flattening province, city and county can do it, after the rural tax and fee reform of villages and towns, the problem that the grass-roots level is no longer an entity financial level is actually solved. The remaining experience of cities and counties is also pushed by the finance in these years. The provincial management of the central document has become the configuration problem of the central province, city and county at three levels. Each level of political power and authority, plus a debt raising right, We have seen all the systems clearly, but it is difficult to improve the legislation from the logical source and then clarify the powers.
This should have been logically placed in the first part, but now it is placed in the third part. In actual disputes, we can see how to determine the jurisdiction. The Third Plenary Session said that the Fourth Plenary Session clearly considered cross administrative jurisdiction.
In fact, in life, it is logical that at least the government should not be allowed to preside over the judicial adjudication of economic cases. Every economic group's number theory is now surging, and the logical jurisdiction is often cross regional. Let Shandong judge the interests of Jiangsu and Zhejiang, but once he presided over the judicial adjudication, local protectionism, local departmentalism, This institutional arrangement is not conducive to protecting the society from achieving fairness and justice through the judicial last line of defense. A large number of economic cases are now repeatedly presided over by the local government. A large number of distortions in the process of trial have caused China's spontaneous credibility to be low, but it is not easy for the local government to accept this matter.
The Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee has already shown this. We are patient to see how to push this matter. We have clearly determined the judicial central committee to explore the process of promotion. So now we have said this in principle. We wait for the relevant factors to mature step by step. Finally, we should form a list of three levels of clear powers, In terms of the budget operation concept of expenditure structure, it is the adaptation of the powers and responsibilities of the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. Otherwise, it is empty talk to say how much the powers are clear, and it must be operational. We must be patient with this matter.
The central government has said that the fiscal and tax reform and overall reform in 2020 will achieve decisive results. To solve these problems, there is a period of five or six years left. According to the minister, the reform in three aspects must have a sense of overall situation, a sense of responsibility, a sense of opportunity, and a sense of all aspects of society. Now, our sense of fairness is growing constantly, and I think it is also a test to move towards modern taxation. Thank you!
(The author of this article introduces: Director of the Institute of Financial Science, Ministry of Finance, researcher, doctoral supervisor.)
