Article/Gao Tuo, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader Column (WeChat official account kopleader)
After the centralized release of this round of rescue policies, there will still be the possibility of reducing reserve ratio and tax cuts in the future; The major favorable policies of expanding reform and opening up may become the catalyst for the market reversal at that time.
On February 2 every year, people in North America always look forward to the marmots. If the weather is sunny, the groundhog who sees his shadow will quickly return to the nest, and the winter will still last for 6 weeks; If the day is cloudy and the groundhog can't see the shadow, spring will come early.
We can also try to interview some marmots about when the spring of China's capital market will come.
As the "end of valuation" since the middle of the year and the "end of policy" in the past month have gradually become the consensus of the market, China's macroeconomic data in October seems to be announcing the approaching of the economic bottom - the bottom of the three bear markets in 2005, 2008 and 2013, all of which are behind the policy bottom and ahead of the economic bottom.
At a time of gloomy economic expectations, how close are we to the economic bottom, and whether we have reached the market bottom? In the macroeconomic data in October, the author selected three "marmots" with the most intuitive connection between residents' consumption and investment: cars, houses and tickets, as a reference for the current economic and market bottoming degree.
1、 Car
As the core indicator of social consumer goods retail, auto sales have fallen to the freezing point this year, and recently turned to negative growth, showing the weakness of national consumption from the side. Before the last three bear market bottoms, car sales without exception experienced a sharp correction.
From the perspective of range, this round of automobile sales dropped the most in 20 years compared with the peak of the stage, and the situation that the sales growth rate was less than - 10% has only occurred four times since 2001, which means that the automobile sales data is at the bottom of the historical level.
Data source: Wind. From the perspective of span, the bottoming of automobile sales will also indicate the most optimistic market bottom situation: on the average of the three bear market bottoms in the past, the market bottom will also appear 75 days after the bottoming of automobile sales data.
2、 House
As the core driving force of China's economy, real estate has always been a topic that cannot be avoided. Before the last three bottoms, the sales area of commercial housing, like that of automobiles, declined significantly from the peak of the stage.
The area of commercial housing sales in this round has reached 94% from the peak of the stage, which is higher than the callback level before the end of 2005, and almost equal to the 98% callback rate before the end of 2008; However, there is still a gap with the three peak reversals in 2008, 2013 and 2015. From this perspective, even if the decline in the growth rate of commercial housing sales area has not ended, it has also entered the "last drop" area.
3、 Tickets
As a measure of narrow money, M1 is mainly composed of cash in circulation and demand deposits of non-financial enterprises. Its growth rate indirectly reflects the production and operation vitality of enterprises and the consumption capacity of residents in the same period of society. Compared with M2, which has constantly hit a new historical low and its statistical significance has gradually declined, M1 has served as a precise forward-looking signal before the last three bear market bottoms.
From the perspective of amplitude, M1's downward adjustment from the stage peak exceeded the bottom of the bear market in 2005 and 2008, very close to the historical level before the bottom of the bear market in 2013. In the next stage, the loose monetary policy of the Central Bank is worth expecting.
From the perspective of span, the average interval between the periodic low of M1 data and the bottom of the three bear markets is about 180 days, which indicates that if the liquidity tightening represented by the current round of M1 slowdown is nearing the end, the market bottom may come within half a year.
4、 Conclusion and Prospect
Based on the three statistics, the author's basic judgment at the current time point is as follows:
- From the perspective of the callback range, the three major data are close to the bottom in terms of the callback range. The first recovery of automobile sales may become the leading indicator of consumption and economic data. The economic bottom is not far away
- From the perspective of time span, the market bottom is likely to appear in the first half of next year, and we are undoubtedly in the final darkness before dawn
- From the perspective of policy enlightenment, after the centralized release of this round of rescue policies, there will still be the possibility of reducing reserve ratio and tax in the future; The major favorable policies of expanding reform and opening up may become the catalyst for the market reversal at that time
(The author of this article introduces: the head of the research department of Chunshi Capital, and the chief researcher of the Innovation Research Institute.)
