Article/Cao Zhongming, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader (WeChat official account kopleader)
The future of China's stock market cannot be pinned on enterprises such as Guizhou Moutai, but should be the world of technology-based enterprises and innovative enterprises.
October 29 is a day worthy of being recorded in the "history" of Maotai, Guizhou. On the same day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index opened slightly lower, but Guizhou Moutai opened with a "one" drop stop and lasted until the end of the day, which is very rare for the "highest priced stock" in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The bouncing trend of Guizhou Moutai's share price is obviously the result of investors' "foot" investment.
There are rare limit falls in Moutai, Guizhou, which can be analyzed from three aspects. First, the performance did not meet market expectations. According to the third quarter reports disclosed by the listed companies, Guizhou Moutai's operating income, net profit, earnings per share and total assets in the first three quarters of this year have all increased, and the trend is encouraging. However, in the third quarter alone, the operating revenue was 18.845 billion yuan, up only 3.2% year on year, far lower than 14.77% and 115.88% in 2016 and 2017. The net profit attributable to the parent company in the third quarter was 8.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, also lower than 3.58% in the third quarter of 2016 and 138.41% in the third quarter of 2017.
Secondly, judging from the technical trend of Guizhou Moutai, the stock has entered a downward channel since reaching 803.5 yuan in June this year. Since then, both the high and low points have been moving downward, with a clear downward trend. Moreover, because the share price is high, even if the share price continues to fall, it cannot attract large funds to increase their holdings. In the downward trend, once the wind blows, its share price will continue to fall, not to mention the negative factors such as a sharp slowdown in performance growth.
Third, the influence of the whole blue chip and white horse stocks can not be ignored. Last year was an excellent year for blue chips and white horses. In the process of other individual stocks falling in succession to seek support, blue chips and white horse stocks represented by Guizhou Moutai emerged from a wave of rising market, especially Guizhou Moutai. Since this year, with the adjustment of blue chips and white horse stocks, the whole sector has been very weak. As a Guizhou Moutai, it also did not jump out of this strange circle. In the process of bottoming out most individual stocks, it is also normal for blue chips and white horse stocks to make up for losses.
After the stock price of Kweichow Moutai fell by the limit, there was a discussion on whether the stock market was bottoming out. In fact, in addition to Guizhou Moutai, the recent performance of the whole liquor sector is also poor. However, the weakness of the liquor sector cannot be equated with whether A-share shares have bottomed out. Of course, as a single stock, Guizhou Moutai's limit decline has no inevitable connection with the bottoming of A-shares. After all, Guizhou Moutai is only a listed company. Although it is the "highest priced stock", its weight in the whole index is not high, so it cannot control the rise and fall of the index.
In 2017, Kweichow Moutai was very bullish. It is really commendable that such a high share price doubled its annual increase. However, in addition to its performance growth, institutional investors obviously contributed to this performance. Although investing in blue chip stocks and white horse stocks is in line with the taste of institutional investors and the investment philosophy of value investment, Guizhou Moutai is only a liquor stock after all, and a liquor stock has become the "highest priced stock" in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, but there is some irony behind it.
China's society needs to move forward, achieve progress and keep up with the trend of world development. Obviously, it can not be achieved by liquor enterprises like Guizhou Moutai, but can be achieved by continuous capital investment, continuous scientific and technological progress and innovation. The successful transformation of China's economy depends only on scientific and technological progress and innovation. In this regard, it is difficult for Guizhou Maotai to be an important task. However, the market's hype about Guizhou Moutai and others is not only the fact of value speculation in the name of value investment, but also the suspicion of market manipulation.
The future of China's stock market cannot be pinned on enterprises such as Guizhou Moutai, but should be the world of technology-based enterprises and innovative enterprises. On this point, the performance of the US stock market has shown some problems. Therefore, we should not be surprised that the stock price of Kweichow Moutai has dropped by a limit, or even that it will continue to fall in the future.
(About the author of this article: Independent financial writers have published hundreds of articles in three major securities newspapers and other media)
