Article/Huang Liming, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader (WeChat official account kopleader)
There is no doubt that the Science and Technology Innovation Board will benefit China's stock market, economy and technological innovation in the long run. The greatest Xia is for the country and the people. You can see that Chinese investors will never be like Chinese real estate speculators who hold banners or even smash the sales offices to ask for returns when prices are lowered.
The question is, whose life has the registration system revolutionized? What is the science and technology innovation board? How large will the expansion range be? Is it a devil or an angel?
Eat the good meat first, and the rest are hard bones.
In November 2018, the highest level set the tone, and the science and technology innovation board and registration system were determined to come. However, the market still has the voice of expansion panic, which once interrupted the rebound of the rescue market.
The Chinese stock market has always been like this, shouting that BATJ is not qualified for A-share investors, and when it is really necessary to introduce those new technology tycoons, it is also a vampire talk of "wolf coming".
For example, no matter whether it is necessary to issue a science and technology innovation board or go to the registration system, it is not surprising that any sword shining triggered a thriller drama of "death for you to see" in big A-shares. This time, amid the noise in the peripheral market, thanks to the help of the bailout market, Chinese investors are in a stable mood and are deeply "calm".
It is said that time makes people grow old, but it can't stand chives. The voice of "expansion" fear is always audible and growing. Anyway, China's stock market is also growing.
The deafening sound of "it can be turned off if it is not good" has always been a word of encouragement, which means that "it can be turned off if it is not good".
It's just a few rounds of baptism, especially the baptism of the bear market since June 2015, which has made everyone lose their temper. Every time, they wanted to take a rebound and eat some meat. Finally, they found that they didn't even drink the soup, but only asked for several meals. The Chinese investors who fell to the floor have the spirit of "leaving the big deal to the next generation", so it's really not a big deal to have another science and technology innovation board and registration system. In any case, it is necessary to push, not to mention, this is a major event of "making contributions in the contemporary era and making profits in the future".
There is no doubt that the Science and Technology Innovation Board will benefit China's stock market, economy and technological innovation in the long run. The greatest Xia is for the country and the people. You can see that Chinese investors will never be like Chinese real estate speculators who hold banners or even smash the sales offices to ask for returns when prices are lowered.
The question is, whose life has the registration system revolutionized? What is the science and technology innovation board? How large will the expansion range be? Is it a devil or an angel?
How about IPO without review?
Six years ago, a member of the Reorganization Committee for Mergers and Acquisitions said in my ear that Guo Shuqing was brave in his internal speech, and he was really determined to reform. At that time, I was a financial reporter. So I am very careful what the "bold words" are.
Guo Shuqing at the beginning of 2012 was still the chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission. Of course, he is now the chairman of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and the party secretary of the Central Bank. Guo Shuqing, who launched the 100 day new policy of securities regulatory supervision in the same year, almost issued the policy at the frequency of one week. The strong reform not only tired a group of people in the securities regulatory commission, but also tired a group of financial journalists. Of course, what the financial journalists are excited about is that the news is highly productive and the manuscript fees are soaring.
It is against such a background that Guo Shuqing asked a surprising question at an internal meeting - "Can we do without IPO review?".
It was a topic that touched the interests of all parties, which naturally provoked everyone's nerves and was as sensitive as your colleagues. This led to the article that I wrote in the year of "IPO can't be done without trial", and then triggered a big debate in the financial circle around this question.
To put it bluntly, the biggest difference between the registration system and the approval system is whether to cut off the root of the power of issuance and review, whether to hand over the market to the market, and the rest is the supervision under laws and regulations.
At that time, a person from the securities regulatory system told me that Guo Shuqing's strong reform would surely touch the interests of some people, especially reducing administrative approval and rent seeking space. This is the difficulty of reform. It cannot be carried out by a strong person, but must be evolved by the system, otherwise it will face irresistible conflicts of interest and pressure.
The prophecy came true. Although the market was widely recognized, Guo Shuqing was in charge of the CSRC for less than half a year. Guo Shuqing finally went to work as a guard in Qilu. The undercurrent surging and twists and turns behind it are hard to say, but they are closely related to the resistance caused by the determined reform. Four years later, Guo Shuqing returned to the CBRC, and then took over the new post of Chairman of the CBRC and took over the post of Party Secretary of the Central Bank.
In 2012, for the market, the registration system was considered as the synonym of "opening the gate to draw blood", so it was often considered as the "stock market killer". Unexpectedly, since 2015, the number of IPO listings in China's stock market has reached nearly 1000, and the barrier lake of IPO has been reduced to only 200 today. In the bearish market of China's stock market in the past four years, the rapid IPO issuance has contributed a lot.
The reform of the registration system is also valid for two years from the first document written in November 2013 - the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Several Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening Reform, which was adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee, to the government work report in 2015, and to February 2016, when the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress authorized the State Council to implement the reform of the stock issuance registration system, Finally, this authorization was extended to 2020.
The historical node is that on November 5, 2018, in Shanghai, the birthplace of China's stock market, the amazing question of "whether to go ahead without IPO review" finally ushered in General Secretary Xi's final conclusion - "will set up a science and technology innovation board and pilot registration system in Shanghai Stock Exchange".
In fact, the answer has already been given by both the US and Hong Kong stock markets. When Lin Yong, the working emperor of the securities industry, talked about the registration system in his early years, he told me a story: a domestic company went to Hong Kong for listing. After the listing, the company boss complained that the way of listing Hong Kong shares was "very fake". Before listing, he had never seen anyone from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission, and it was all email documents.
Behind the story, it also highlights the core meaning of the registration system: full disclosure and post supervision. Of course, it also includes market pricing and fraud.
What is the expansion pressure?
"If you believe that there is always a logic for human beings to do things, it only means that you are crazy.".
This is a classic line in the movie Big Short. It was Richard Saller who won the 2017 Nobel Prize in Economics for his contributions to behavioral economics who guest starred in this line.
Human heart is unpredictable, human nature is unpredictable.
In a series of behavioral economics theories such as "bounded rationality, psychological account, social preference, lack of self-control", we can be more sure that stock investment is an anti human game.
As at 5000 o'clock in 2015, when someone said that "ten thousand points are not a dream", many people were excited and cheered for their place - they rushed to buy; Now when the stock index falls below 2500 points, some people mention falling below 2000 points, and many people are convinced of this - waiting for empty positions.
The problem is not that 10000 points and 2000 points are impossible. The problem is that many investors who support these two views are the same group. In economics, people are defined as rational people, but there is often no logic to follow.
Irrational prosperity bubbles and irrational panic stampedes always go hand in hand. Even if the current valuation level of China's stock market is close to the record low, the Shenzhen Main Board once broke through the record low valuation. Even though we agree that this is an era of value investment, we cannot avoid the custom of conducting value speculation in such a policy market.
But many people fall into the inertial logic of thinking, ignoring the fact that the power of capacity expansion has already been reduced.
When nearly 1000 companies' IPOs landed in China's stock market in more than three years, people were basically indifferent. The zero cost "touch lottery" formed by the purchase of IPO without deposit makes Chinese investors appreciate it endlessly. However, for the development of a science and technology innovation board and a pilot registration system, many investors are faced with the risk of expansion and are deeply confused about the future stock market.
As mentioned above, the IPO barrier lake, which once stood in line of nearly 900 at the peak, has dropped to about 200 now, and the IPO has basically entered the normal distribution track. There are no preconditions for the IPO barrier lake of large expansion. If we insist on large expansion, it can only be said that it is a frightening expansion, which is more terrible than the substantive expansion of IPO, because it can be infinitely enlarged. This is the consensus expectation of human fear.
It is worth mentioning that the Science and Technology Innovation Board was launched with the registration system. Another core of the registration system is that the market determines the issuing rhythm. If the market situation is too bad, the price will be low if the issuer must issue, which forms a game between the issuer and investors in the secondary market. If the price is too high, investors in the secondary market will not accept the offer and will not be able to send it out if they want to.
Therefore, the registration system does not need to worry about the pressure of expansion, because the market will adjust itself more, otherwise the market will correct itself. However, it is worth paying special attention to that the biggest difference between Hong Kong and American stocks and A-shares is that the market is dominated by institutions and dominated by retail investors. This led to another concern, how to better play the role of market pricing in a retail dominated market?
Another problem, which is naturally drawn out, is that A-shares are facing de retail investors and need to introduce more long-term funds into the market. This is also what the CSRC has been doing. Indeed, in the field of stock investment, we need to return to common sense - professional things to be done by professional people.
What is the science and technology innovation board?
Eight years ago, the Shanghai Stock Exchange was still struggling to share food with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which has been launched successively on the Small and Medium Sized Board and the Growth Enterprise Board, has carried the dream of listing of numerous private enterprises in China.
In the following years, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which was very crowded, was in sharp contrast to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, which was very cold. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange, whose trading volume was less than 1/3 of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, once exceeded the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange has always been concerned about this. In the early years, some officials of the Shanghai Stock Exchange had imagined with me the idea of a strategic emerging market. It is natural to have selfishness to seek for more listed resources. However, as my friend said in those years, the fight also needs to be justified and well known. Only when it is beneficial to the country and the people can it be possible. Otherwise, it is just a simple view of the door, and it is just a simple cancellation of the division of IPOs in Shenzhen and Shanghai Stock Exchanges.
For this reason, Shanghai Stock Exchange has long put forward various bold ideas and ideas such as strategic emerging market, international market and CDR of China Concept Stock Return. Each of these design ideas is trying to fit into the future power of China's economic transformation.
Now, the Science and Technology Innovation Board finally came out together with the registration time. According to the industry, this is to build a new version of China's "NASDAQ" technology innovation board. Given such expectations, the "GEM" should turn off the lights and eat noodles to cover their faces and cry. In fact, the GEM is in a stable mood for the time being, not to mention falling down. Of course, there will be more or less capital diversion in the future, but Shenzhen Stock Exchange has always maintained strong vitality.
In fact, according to the communication with the financial investment circle and the securities regulatory officials, the Shanghai Stock Exchange was also surprised by the news of the launch of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the pilot registration system. Although the Science and Technology Innovation Board had been prepared for a long time, it was still surprising to announce at such a high level, especially the pilot registration system. There is no doubt that this is a hard bone. In addition to joy, there is unprecedented pressure. Because this will be a historical event recorded in the history of Chinese securities and even the economic history.
From the perspective of current communication information in various dimensions, we have six predictions: first, the official launch will not be too fast or too slow. After all, the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the pilot registration system will be launched at the same time. Second, in the face of market expansion, we are worried that long-term funds will still be introduced to escort the launch; Third, institutional constraints will be imposed on the imbalance of interests in the primary and secondary markets such as cash out of old shareholders; Fourth, strengthen information disclosure and bind fraudulent issuance with intermediary responsibilities such as securities firm recommendation; Fifth, the market restricts the issuing rhythm and the expansion speed is also determined by the market; Sixth, active trading is the core and will not repeat the mistakes of the New Third Board.
From the non-profit Internet upstart, to the return of China Concept stocks to their valuation and turnover, to the scientific and technological innovation enterprises, this is a science and technology innovation board bearing the driving force of China's future transformation. It is not meaningful to simply divide the board. The core is to see the quality of scientific and technological innovation, especially how to pilot the registration system.
The situation has changed in turn. The Shanghai Stock Exchange once carried the myth of state-owned enterprise reform, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange once carried the myth of private enterprises taking off. Pudong, Shanghai Lujiazui Whether that cow can shape its golden body again and carry the dream of scientific and technological innovation of the driving force of China's economic transformation again is worth looking forward to, and more remains to be seen!
Opportunity, 2019, depends on whether you can seize
(The author of this article introduces: the founder of Delin News Agency, a former senior reporter of Beijing News and Economic Observer)
