Article/Xiong Jinqiu, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader (WeChat official account kopleader)
From the perspective of investment operation, it is obvious that investors should stay away from new stock speculation at present, especially after the majority of new stocks have surged to a certain extent, most of the remaining time is down, and it is necessary to pay off debts slowly for the previous speculative rise. On the whole, investors participate in the speculation of new shares, with a small win.
On November 2, the IPO approval document routinely issued by the CSRC did not arrive as scheduled. Some people believed that this was a positive signal for the regulators to protect the city, while others believed that the secondary new shares welcomed the potential benefits. Indeed, on November 5, some secondary new shares rose significantly in the session. The author believes that the speculation of new shares is the biggest root cause of the market and needs to be cured as soon as possible.
Some investors regard the pace of IPO as the vane of hype of secondary new shares. The pace of IPO slows down or is temporarily suspended, and the supply relationship of secondary new shares is temporarily improved, resulting in speculation opportunities. But obviously, the IPO rhythm should have no impact on the intrinsic value of individual stocks in the secondary market, only the speculative value of individual stocks can be affected.
A share seems to form a hidden rule, that is, new shares and sub new shares are endowed with different and additional speculative values by the market and investors according to the length of listing. The shorter the listing time, the greater the implied speculative value. That is to say, the market does not use the same yardstick of "intrinsic value" to judge the value of new shares and old shares.
Now, on the one hand, investors hope that IPO will stop forever, on the other hand, no matter what new shares are issued at a high price, investors are eager to subscribe, and the market and investors are schizophrenic. In the over speculative A-share market, no matter what new shares are listed, they have to come to several trading limit boards first. In recent years, there has never been a break on the first day of listing; However, the P/E ratio of new share issuance was far higher than the average P/E ratio of the secondary market. After several trading limit boards, the P/E ratio was raised to dozens of times, or even hundreds of times. At this time, even the most audacious funds were discouraged, and the value return was carried out.
Since the new shares are included in the index calculation on the eleventh trading day after listing, it is often the highest price at this time. Since then, the secondary new shares have entered a long decline channel, which has also become the driving force of the market index.
One of the main reasons for the formation of the bad habit of speculation and speculation in new shares in the market is that the makers choose new shares, especially small cap new shares, as the subject of manipulation. For example, the CSRC recently released a decision on the administrative punishment of a banker in Wenzhou Bang, and determined that he used his capital advantage, shareholding advantage, continuous trading and a large number of transactions between securities accounts under his actual control“ Rutong Shares ”“ Qingyuan Shares ”“ Yazhen Home ”, constitutes manipulation, and the result of manipulation is that the stock price fluctuates significantly or deviates greatly from the market rise, so the dealer is confiscated of illegal income and fined more than one billion yuan.
The above case has solved part of the truth behind the speculation of new shares. It seems that to curb speculation and the success of new shares, the only way to gradually destroy the speculative value of new shares is to continuously increase the severe attack on the manipulation of the new stock market.
Now as long as the number or amount of IPOs issued by the CSRC is large one week, some investors will complain; On the surface, the current IPO rhythm is controlled by the administration, but the administrative control is actually helping investors tighten the IPO leader, rather than letting it go. If the market chooses by itself, it is not the current IPO rhythm. In fact, the pace of IPO is ultimately in the hands of the market and investors themselves. If A-share investors, like investors in mature markets, prudently subscribe for new shares or refuse to purchase at a high price due to their lack of in-depth understanding of the new stock base, then the market will be a different scene. At this time, it is meaningless for the CSRC to approve how many IPOs, because investors may not subscribe.
Of course, it is precisely because of the long and narrow IPO rhythm or mode under control at present that new shares are basically in short supply at each period, thus forming a new share issuance pattern where investors actively subscribe and draw lots to win prizes.
The author suggests that the current situation of starvation marketing of new shares should be changed, and new shares should be issued and listed in a centralized manner. On a certain day every quarter or half a year, a batch of new shares should be issued and listed in a centralized manner, so that there will be mutual competition between issuers and investors will have more diversified choices. It is very likely that a few mediocre companies will fail to issue due to insufficient subscription, or the IPO will be broken after the listing of new shares, which will force investors to be more cautious about the subscription of new shares, and also force issuers to either reduce the issue price, or suspend the issuance and then issue and list when the market is good. After such rounds, The administrative department's control over the rhythm of new share issuance can be gradually released or even completely abandoned, so as to truly realize the self-regulation of the market, and the new share issuance market will thus move towards a healthy development track.
From the perspective of investment operation, it is obvious that investors should stay away from new stock speculation at present. Although the possibility of individual new stocks being taken as the subject of manipulation by the dealer has been greatly raised, ordinary investors are not the worms in the dealer's stomach, and it is difficult to seize the opportunities; In particular, after most of the new shares rose to a certain extent, most of the rest of the time was down, and it was necessary to pay off the debt slowly due to the previous speculative rise. On the whole, investors participate in the speculation of new shares, with a small win.
(The author of this article introduces: senior market commentator.)
