Article/Pan Helin, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader (WeChat official account kopleader)
Whether it is housing loan or other residents' debt risk, on the one hand, it is necessary to analyze the underlying reasons for its occurrence and standardize various financial businesses; On the other hand, it is more important to increase residents' income through income distribution reform. Increasing residents' income is the best way to resolve the high debt of residents.
Recently, the People's Bank of China released the China Financial Stability Report, which comprehensively assessed the soundness of China's financial system since 2017. The report disclosed that the debt balance of China's household sector was 40.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 21.4% year on year, 7.1 times more than that of 2008. Personal housing loans have always played a major role in household sector debt. From the perspective of historical data, Personal housing loans accounted for 45% - 54% of the balance of household loans.
There are two reasons why more than 50% of household debt is personal housing loans.
First, the fundamental reason is that the housing price rises too fast, resulting in the heavy burden of residents' payment. According to statistical data, the average sales price of real estate in China in 2008 was 3800 yuan/square meter, which has risen to 4681 yuan/square meter by 23.2% in 2009. In 2009, the debt balance of the household sector increased by 43.3%, of which the personal housing loan increased by 47.9% year on year. By comparing the debt level of the household sector during the period, we can find that it is highly correlated with the fluctuation of house prices, And there is a trend of multiple.
Second, the direct reason is the application and development of real estate financial services such as housing mortgage loans. For their own business development needs, banks and other financial institutions have a strong willingness to lend, and the most basic basis for finding loan objects in many market entities is the "non-performing loan rate". For a long time, the non-performing loan rate of housing mortgage loans in China has been at a low level. According to relevant data, the non-performing loan rate of individuals was 1.5% at the end of 2017. It is 1.85% lower than the overall non-performing rate of bank loans. In addition, the mortgage of fixed assets makes banks and other financial institutions bear less risk, so no matter what kind of regulation measures the country takes on the real estate market, it seems that banks and other financial institutions will not change their preference for personal housing mortgage loans.
However, it is worth noting that although the leverage ratio of China's household sector is lower than the national average and the international average on an overall level, the debt growth rate is too fast and financial risks must be avoided. At the end of 2017, the leverage ratio of China's households was 49%, and the housing loan income ratio rose to 60.5%. According to international standards, this level has exceeded the limits of economic stability, and the squeeze on consumers' consumption of other products has led to a decline in residents' living standards. The economy relies heavily on real estate, so a more prudent credit policy is imminent.
So, how do you view the fact that the Political Bureau meeting held two days ago did not mention anything about real estate? Compared with the "resolutely curbing housing prices" in July, this meeting seems to be "abnormal", but the author believes that "no mention" does not mean that the real estate regulation is relaxed.
First of all, since the beginning of this year, the country has been cracking down on the real estate market. Although the overall house price has not declined significantly, the house price has indeed stabilized, and the policy has begun to show results. The most direct explanation is that this year's "nine gold and ten silver" has made real estate developers cool.
Secondly, the real estate industry has its own development cycle. The shed reform started in 2015 has completed the rolling development and development of the real estate market from the first and second tier cities to the third and fourth tier cities. At present, the real estate industry relying on the old development, construction and sales model has been in a downward path. If you want to enter a new round of development climax, you need to find new growth points, such as long-term rent Second hand housing and so on, the current development trend of the entire industry does not seem to need further regulation by the state.
Finally, although the overall economic situation of the country is stable at present, "there are changes in the stability". The real estate industry has played an obvious role in supporting the national economy in the past decade. The ultimate goal of the state's regulation of the real estate industry is not to curb its development, but to promote its standardized development and encourage its innovative development. At least it is not necessary to suppress it, which does not conform to the original intention of the policy of "houses are for living". Therefore, the over regulation of the real estate industry is not suitable. It should be said that the current regulation of the real estate industry has been very strict, and it seems that there is no need to further increase the regulation.
In combination with the financial stability report data released by the Central Bank, "no mention" does not mean that the real estate regulation will be relaxed. It is very likely to maintain the current high pressure state of regulation, but not to increase the price. In fact, there is no need to increase the price, because there is a significant cooling of real estate around. To say the least, from the data of the central bank's relevant housing loan income ratio and other data, the space for China to promote economic growth with real estate is limited, and it is especially impossible to return to encouraging speculative real estate, because there is too much financial risk. Of course, improving residents' living standards and ensuring that "houses are used for living" is still the driving force of the policy, which can not only promote economic recovery, but also not cause financial risks.
Finally, it has to be mentioned that, in addition to some debts within the above statistical caliber, due to the constraints of credit conditions and costs, consumer loans, Internet loans, informal private loans and other supplementary channels have shown a blowout development, which makes it more difficult to measure residents' debts, not only bringing more uncertainty to the whole finance, It will also expose residents to more financial risks.
The author believes that whether it is housing loan or other residents' debt risk, on the one hand, it is necessary to analyze the underlying reasons for its occurrence and standardize various financial businesses; On the other hand, it is more important to increase residents' income through income distribution reform. Increasing residents' income is the best way to resolve the high debt of residents. This will not lead to financial risks, nor will it lead to sluggish economic growth by curbing consumption.
In addition, specific to individual investors, we should learn from the China Financial Stability Report issued by the Central Bank. Even if the regulation is relaxed, it may be difficult for houses to simply repeat yesterday's story of wealth creation. After all, "landlords have no surplus food", and when residents are in debt to a certain extent, house prices may become water without a source. (The author is a postdoctoral fellow in applied economics)
(The author of this article introduces: famous young economist, famous financial commentator)
