Article/Gui Zefa, columnist of Sina Financial Opinion Leader (WeChat public account kopleader)
In terms of specific asset selection, multiple dimensions such as policy, industry, region, time window and enterprise should be taken into consideration at the same time, and operational arrangements should be made in combination with their own risk stress and preference, family life cycle, investment expectation curve, investment period and other actual situations.
From the perspective of BOCOM China's wealth prosperity index, the current investment fundamentals are relatively stable as a whole, but the structural differentiation trend behind them is increasingly obvious. On the one hand, it is the impact and pressure brought by the policy changes of major economies in the world. On the other hand, there has also been a major adjustment in domestic regulatory policies, from loose regulation in the past to strict and strong regulation now. In such an internal and external environment, we can see that the capital market, property market, foreign exchange market, bond market, etc. have shown great volatility recently, and the market uncertainty continues to increase. The investment choices of high net worth customers in the face of market differentiation also show a trend of accelerated differentiation: first, inward and outward differentiation. Some customers are looking to the international market to share international market opportunities; There are also some customers who choose to go inward and develop towards third and fourth tier cities and even rural areas. The second is the differentiation from the virtual to the real. Some people used to be entities, but these years they have withdrawn from the entities for wealth management; There are also some people who go against this path and begin to move towards the real economy. The third is the differentiation between online and offline. Some people go from online to offline Online and offline China Unicom; Some people have moved their investment channels online, and mobile terminals have become the main battleground for financial management. The fourth is the differentiation of risk preference. In the face of market fluctuations, some people choose to defend, while others are optimistic and seize the opportunities on the left side of the market. The fifth is the differentiation of bank financing customers forward and backward. After the implementation of the new regulations, some customers went to the market from bank financing to seek higher income opportunities, while some still withdrew from on balance sheet financing business to seek capital security. Sixth, the differentiation between standard and non-standard, more and more high net worth customers and mature investors put forward customized financial management needs to banks and other institutions. The seventh is the differentiation between artificial and intelligent. Intelligent investment advisers will play an increasingly important role in wealth management. Eighth, the differentiation of financial institutions. In the market differentiation, some micro financial institutions that have grown rapidly in recent years have also accelerated the differentiation process in the wind and rain. Many customers of these institutions choose to return to banks and other mature institutions for long-term consideration. The ninth is the differentiation between self financing and discretionary mode, which will become an important choice for high net worth customers. Ten is the differentiation of financial pain points. The focus of people's financial management is increasingly shifting from wealth creation to wealth conservation.
Facing the dual differentiation of market and customer financing, we have two suggestions:
First, the "five tier assets" should be well combined. I divide the major categories of assets into five categories: First, "Royal", including bank financial products, conventional insurance, high-quality real estate, etc. The second is "holding", including high-quality bonds, notes and trust products. The third is "attack", including stocks, funds and foreign exchange. Fourth, "scramble", including bulk, option futures, non-standard, etc. The fifth is "competition", including management rights, valuable intangible assets, rare collections, etc. In the stage of economic downturn, deleveraging, de foaming and strict supervision, in general, the allocation of major assets should be as low as possible, the proportion of the allocation of imperial assets should be increased in an orderly manner, and the allocation of competitive assets prevalent in the stage of economic easing and rising should be appropriately reduced. In terms of specific asset selection, multiple dimensions such as policy, industry, region, time window and enterprise should be taken into consideration at the same time, and operational arrangements should be made in combination with their own risk stress and preference, family life cycle, investment expectation curve, investment period and other actual situations. At present and in the future, the investment value of real estate will decrease and the risk will increase due to the combined effect of continuous policy control, weakening liquidity, property tax and other factors, which should be carefully held. After several blows and twists, stocks have had a huge differentiation effect. The stampede effect of some investors in panic has formed a continuous wrong kill against some stocks, making the holding value of some stocks with low valuation, good industry, leading position, strong policy support, moat effect of enterprise operation and performance support increasingly obvious, so it is appropriate to choose and invest. Foreign exchange, precious metals, etc. should be properly held in combination with their own actual situation to spread risks. Strong investors can also legally and legally allocate assets overseas, including financial assets and real estate investment, to share investment opportunities in the international market.
Second, adhere to the "five natures of investment". As for asset allocation and portfolio, we can try to find the answer in the Five Elements Theory. The Five Elements Theory is a philosophical thought created by the ancient Chinese people. It takes the five material elements of daily life (gold, wood, water, fire, and earth) as the basis for the formation of all things in the universe and the changes of various natural phenomena. The five elements are mutually reinforcing, that is, water generates wood, wood generates fire, fire generates earth, earth generates gold, and gold generates water; Water controls fire, fire controls gold, gold controls wood, wood controls earth, and earth controls water. Guided by the Five Elements Theory, we can carry out simple asset allocation. If I have a sum of money to invest, it can be divided into five parts: one is cash or deposit. Good liquidity, meeting the needs of daily payment, and obvious "water". Second, stocks and funds. Strong growth, long-term investment can bring wealth growth, and the "wood" is prominent. The third is insurance and fixed assets. It has good bearing, bearing and stability, and has "soil" property. Fourth, comprehensive financial products of banks. It has the characteristics of eliminating decline, outstanding convergence, and being able to balance income and risk. Fifth, venture capital and alternative assets. It is characterized by high rising and explosive, high risk and high return, and obvious "fire". The five types of assets have their own characteristics, which complement each other. Combined, it can not only learn from each other's strong points to offset their weak points, but also diversify investment and degrade risks.
(About the author: Doctor of Economics)
