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Wen/Qiao Xue
Source: Tech Planet (ID: tech618)
Wait, wait, wait, wait. Tesla, which has a "price butcher" in the new energy vehicle market, has never disappointed consumers. The price has dropped again and again, so consumers have formed a mindset. As long as they can wait, they will wait for a more cost-effective price,
But now, the "waiting party" and so on are rising prices.
Due to the increase in the price of batteries, chips and other raw materials, the Tesla Model 3 with a price of 235900 yuan has become a history. Now, the price of the same configuration car will be increased by 30000 yuan, and it will take four months or more to wait.
Not only Tesla, but also more than 20 new energy vehicle brands have joined the price increase camp within half a month. Even Wuling Hongguang, the "national god car", has increased the price by 4000 yuan to 8000 yuan. Even two wheeled electric vehicles have not missed the wave of price increase. Xiaoniu electric vehicles have also announced a price increase of about 1000 yuan.
There are also individual consumers who turn into scalpers and jump into the price rise carnival. Consumers are faced with a dilemma. On the one hand, the oil price is rising step by step, officially entering the era of 9 yuan; On the other hand, although the cost of electricity for the seemingly cost-effective new energy vehicles is lower, the price often rises by more than 10000 yuan, and the use cost further increases.
The price rise seems to be a market phenomenon of new energy vehicles, but in fact, every link in the industrial chain is sending a signal of change.
Decline goes hand in hand with price rise. It is cruel to have no cars to sell
As a sales person of BYD, Xiao Feng felt that the price increase started almost overnight. The night before last, he was still communicating with customers about the old price information. When he arrived at the store the next day, the store manager informed everyone that the company required an overall price increase. The unified explanation to consumers was that the price increase was caused by the rise of batteries, chips and other raw materials.
Generally, January and February of each year are the low point of automobile sales, which is different from the decline during the Spring Festival. The new energy market in March this year immediately entered an unprecedented hot situation.
Price rise was the theme of the new energy market throughout March.
Tesla is also the most price sensitive. On March 10, Tesla raised the price of Model 3 high-performance version, Model Y long endurance version and high-performance version by 10000 yuan; On March 15, the price of Model 3 high-performance version increased by another 18000 yuan compared with March 10; On March 17, the price of rear wheel drive Model Y was increased to 316900 yuan, up 15000 yuan.
The price of 60.2KWh battery of Xiaopeng P7 model rose from 220000 yuan last year to 240000 yuan, an increase of 20000 yuan; The price of supporting 80.9KWh ternary battery rose from 257000 yuan last year to 273000 yuan, an increase of 16000 yuan; BYD, BAIC, Ai'an and other pure electric vehicles have joined the price rise camp. As the representative of hybrid models, Ideal ONE has also increased the price from 338000 yuan last year to 349800 yuan, an increase of 11800 yuan. Some consumers expressed their incomprehension to Tech Planet, "a small piece of battery, so it may be an opportunity to increase the price."
With the price increase of the whole industry, the car companies finally transmit the pressure to the end consumers.
Before the price rise in March, another price rise has been fixed - the state subsidies continue to decline, and this year will be the end. According to the latest subsidy scheme, the subsidy for pure electric vehicles with a range of 300-400km from this year will be 39000 yuan less than that in 2021; For pure electric vehicles with a range of more than 400km, the subsidy will be reduced by 54000 yuan. The part of refund and compensation is also passed on to consumers by car enterprises.
The other side of the price increase is that there are no cars to sell. No one knows how long the price increase will last and whether it will continue. An owner told Tech Planet that in order to increase the pressure on consumers, car companies also quietly extended the time to collect the car. Taking Tesla's long endurance version as an example, the current collection time has been extended to 16-20 weeks. Previously, the fastest collection time could be 45 days.
A salesperson at Xiaopeng's Beijing store told Tech Planet that at present, only the 670E+model of Xiaopeng P7, the top configuration model, can be purchased. No other models are available for sale. There is no exact time for recovery. In other words, it can be understood that automobile enterprises are more inclined to produce products with high premium, and chip batteries are also closely related to products with high prices. After all, high prices also mean high profits.
The rise in price is a heavy burden for mini cars. Previously, Great Wall Oula chose to suspend the production of black cat and white cat, two mini electric vehicles, indefinitely because of the "loss of 10000 yuan from selling one car". The life of Zero Running, Nezha and Wuling Hongguang, whose sales are dominated by mini electric vehicles, can only be said to be more difficult.
The market of new energy vehicles has been a boom.
From buying cars to selling cars, new scalpers are born from the rising tide of prices
The high increase in a short period of time has calmed potential consumers for the time being, but it has given birth to another group of new roles to join the boom.
A customer who transferred Tesla Model Y, Mr. Zhang, told Tech Planet that he originally wanted to change a Tesla this year, but due to the impact of his work, his financial ability was not allowed, so he had to transfer the car that had already paid the deposit. Compared with the increase of 20000 yuan on the official website, Mr. Zhang decided to only increase the price by 5000 yuan to transfer the order. Soon, many people came to inquire. At present, he has communicated with several consumers, but has not yet done business. He will choose one with high reputation, and it is better to do business in the same city.
Xiao Chen just set foot in the second-hand car business of new energy half a year ago. With the attitude of trying, he didn't expect Tesla's sales to be getting better and better. Coinciding with this year's price rise, Xiao Chen decided to take advantage of this to earn a lot of money. He made progress on the multiple platforms of the circle of friends, leisure fish, microblog, and auto website. "I will take as many orders as Tesla orders", "You can definitely buy the fastest car collection and the most cost-effective Tesla from me", "I earn 3000 yuan and you save 30000 yuan". At present, he has stockpiled 10-15 sets, and many orders will be delivered this month.
Xiao Chen can earn about 3000 yuan per car. If calculated by 10 cars, he has earned more than 30000 yuan in less than a month.
The news that Tesla was about to raise the price was told to Qichen by the sales department in advance, so he ordered the car last year, perfectly avoiding several waves of price rises. Compared with the current price, Qichen has earned more than 30000 yuan.
Even a potential buyer, he decided to change his order. Because he found that this was a business opportunity on second-hand websites, so the selling price has been changed several times, from 3000 yuan to 4000 yuan, to 6000 yuan. Now he is still waiting for an opportunity. He hopes he can wait for buyers who take over at a higher price.
The special phenomenon of rising prices of new energy has given birth to a new role player. As a consumer, he has turned into a middleman and started a business of buying and selling. More and more new scalpers like Qichen have also aroused the vigilance of car enterprises.
Recently, Tesla began to ask car buyers to sign a Letter of Commitment on Non resale. In the case of individuals ordering more than one Tesla, it is stipulated that no transfer or actual transfer will be made to any third party within one year. In case of violation, Tesla will ask for a penalty of 20% of the ticket price, otherwise it will restrict the binding account change of related vehicles, super charging and other services. Tesla said that the Letter of Commitment on Non resale is a measure to prevent resale orders under specific circumstances, which aims to maintain the fairness and transparency of the car buying environment and protect the rights and interests of real car buyers.
However, such an agreement does not limit people who want to get high returns and choose to take risks. Because they cannot transfer orders, individual buyers can only pick up the car with their own identity information first, and then transfer ownership with the buyer, and instantly a car becomes a second-hand car.
The new scalpers have become a spectacle. On the idle fish, there are second-hand merchants even selling Tesla cars in the resale agreement, with a price of 5 yuan each. After purchase, you can consult the transfer agreement and process, as if deriving the relevant industrial chain and supporting services.
As a second-hand car dealer, Lao Chen is more cautious. He has been working on new energy second-hand cars for more than two years. In the face of this wave of price rise, he frankly regretted that he could not place more orders. "Nobody expected to increase the price so much, which is really unprecedented in the market."
Although he missed a first-hand order, Lao Chen also began to work as a middleman. He collected orders from car owners, helped them find potential sellers, and collected some introduction fees.
Lao Chen also told Tech Planet that in the face of this wave of price increases, not only individual sellers want to make a profit, but also second-hand car sellers want to take the opportunity to raise their value. He has contacted an owner who bought Tesla at a price of about 290000. The car condition is about 2000 kilometers, and now he wants to sell it at a price of 310000. "It's really hot beyond imagination, but this phenomenon will not last too long. Orders are limited, and it will be digested in a period of time." Old Chen analyzed.
Behind the price rise: fragile new energy vehicle enterprises
Why is it always new energy that is trapped in the supply chain? There are always problems in the supply chain of chips, batteries and so on. Will the era of fuel vehicles not encounter the problem of cyclical fluctuations in the supply chain?
For decades, the process for consumers to buy cars has been as follows: consumers like brands and models, go to 4S stores, make sales inquiries, and negotiate prices based on the retail prices of car companies. If they are not so eager to buy cars, they will compare prices in many ways, and even use the relationship between relatives and friends to seek the bottom price until a deal is reached. Now this process is not effective in new energy vehicle enterprises and dealers. The purchase method of new energy vehicles is basically to place orders on the official website. The price is unified nationwide, and there is no middleman. Vehicle enterprises begin to face consumers directly.
In the traditional era of fuel vehicles, auto companies do not directly write into the standard price because of the increase in cost, but use dealers to act as baffles to achieve the purpose of price increase through reduced incentives. The leverage is transferred from buyers to auto manufacturers and dealers, and consumer perception is not obvious.
In addition, traditional car enterprises have long recognized the importance of supply chain stability for enterprises and even industries. Taking Volkswagen Group as an example, such car enterprises with abundant funds have already deeply participated in all links of the industrial chain, and the localization rate is high, in order to ensure stable supply and price, and to stabilize the control of the industrial chain.
However, the strength of new energy vehicle enterprises to participate in and influence the industrial chain is still limited. Based on the cost analysis of a vehicle, 40% of the cost of the whole vehicle is in the battery. Battery suppliers have a very high voice. The leading battery manufacturers in Ningde era require to purchase on an annual basis. This price increase is also a way for battery manufacturers to transmit the pressure of price increase of upstream materials to automobile enterprises.
Although the battery cost has been reduced through technological progress and scale advantages, the price of the ternary lithium battery system is about 775 yuan/kWh (excluding tax) at the price in 2021, down 38% from the beginning of 2019; The price of lithium iron phosphate battery system is about 625 yuan/kWh, down 46% from the beginning of 2019. But last year, except for Tesla's price cut, no other new energy vehicle companies cut their prices due to lower costs.
When the battery price drops, the OEMs will not apportion the discount to consumers, while when the battery price rises, the cost will be all passed on to consumers. The other side of being honest is that consumers respond strongly to both price cuts and price increases. Many consumers said that they would put aside their purchase plans for the time being, even not consider buying new energy vehicles.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Passenger Transport Federation, also mentioned when analyzing the "price rise tide" that this general rise in the price of new energy vehicles is a response that downstream car companies have no choice but to take after the continuous rise in the price of upstream materials. Compared with the cost resolution capability accumulated in the production of fuel vehicles for many years, the current new energy vehicles are more vulnerable to cost constraints, and the price system is still immature.
On the other hand, it is true that people have taken advantage of the window period to make malicious speculation and hoard goods. Ouyang Ming Gaoming, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle Association of 100, said that the battery supply problem in China will be eased to a greater extent from the second or third quarter of next year. In his opinion, there is no shortage of power battery raw materials such as lithium ore. "There are many lithium resources in the world, but the original capacity has not been expanded yet."
The national level has begun to attach great importance to the problem of rising prices of raw materials. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the General Administration of Market Supervision and other departments, has carried out an investigation. The next step will be to crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and price gouging, so as to ensure the supply and price stability of the new energy vehicle industry.
The wave of price rise is more like the first lesson for new energy vehicle enterprises to grow up after they are about to lose policy protection. New energy vehicle manufacturers can only grow up if they enjoy the bargaining power over the upstream supply chain, have higher production efficiency and resource utilization in actual production, and are attractive to consumers in terms of terminal price.
(Statement: This article only represents the author's view, not Sina.com's position.)
