Original title: How did the US stock index become ten times of ours in ten years?
September 15 was the tenth anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers. It was the closure of this century old shop that made the world realize that an unprecedented financial storm was coming to the world.
Ten years ago, on September 16, China's stock market also experienced a dark moment, with the Shanghai Index falling below 2000 points.
In the same decade, the US Dow fell below 8000 points ten years ago, and now more than 25000 points, which is in full swing; After ten years of China's stock market, the Shanghai index has gone from below 2000 points to less than 3000 points today.
People can't help asking: What happened to China's stock market?
economic cycle
First of all, if we think that the stock market is a reflection of a country's economy, we can draw the conclusion that China's stock market should be synchronized with the U.S. stock market by comparing China and the United States, which obviously ignores the internal logic.
The US economy suffered a huge blow in 2008. In 2008 and 2009, the economic growth of the United States was negative, the market was extremely panicked, and the economy was facing depression. In 2018, the economic growth of the United States hit a new high, and the employment situation was the best in history. By contrast, the stock market naturally soared. Compared with the low point ten years ago, it is now at a peak in history.
The cycle of China's economic development is not completely synchronized with that of the United States.
In 2008, the US subprime mortgage crisis triggered the global financial crisis, which also had an impact on China, but we showed strong resilience. Although the GDP growth rate declined compared with 2007, it was still 9.7%. Later, as the representative of emerging economies, China became the new world economic engine, and the growth rate returned to double digits.
After 2010, the high-speed and super high-speed growth cycle for decades in a row has reached another stage. In recent years, China has begun to take the initiative to face and control the problem of economic transformation and upgrading. The economic growth has shifted from high speed to medium high speed. At present, it is in the transition phase of new and old cycle dynamics, and our economy is showing an "L" trend.
It is not difficult to find that the economic cycle of China and the United States is at different stages, and it is impossible to show the same characteristics. So is the stock market. In this situation, it is meaningless to unilaterally pursue the apparent "consistency" of the stock market.
Moreover, on the contrary, it should be recognized that if the stock market rises and other phenomena that violate the cycle and law of economic development occur at the stage of economic power conversion and pressure increase, it will show that there is a problem in the stock market.
For example, in 2015, China's economy was clearly entering the "new normal", experiencing the pain of "three phases of superposition", the reform was in the ascendant, the structure has not changed, but the stock market soared, turning around and soaring in a short period of time, which is a clear symbol of bubbles and risks. Sure enough, the so-called "stock disaster" happened soon, which hit the market, market confidence, regulatory credibility, etc.
Be criticized repeatedly
In fact, the question that people should ask is: why did the stock index fall and other "inconsistent" situations happen repeatedly when China's economic growth was very high before?
Indeed, China's stock market has been criticized in the past. Its overall situation often deviates from the economic aspect, and it can hardly be used as a mirror image to reflect the macroeconomic situation.
The main reason is that this is not a healthy market, not a market based on value investment, and the stock price cannot fully and effectively reflect the company's operating efficiency and earnings prospects, nor can the company fully and effectively reflect the economic vitality and trend. Supervision is both absent and offside. The market seems open but not transparent. Everyone tries to get insider trading information. Information fraud and financial fraud occur from time to time.
Therefore, the stock market often presents strange scenes negatively related to the economy: the economy is good, and the stock index is low; When the economy is bad, the stock index rises, and junk stocks often soar.
Fundamentally, the chaos of the stock market made investors lose the possibility of value investment. They just regarded the stock market at that time as a place for short-term arbitrage and speculation. Therefore, speculation in junk stocks, entering the market to look for "opportunities" when the economy is bad, and abnormal high turnover rate became the norm.
Managers always aim to "promote" the growth of the stock index, further exacerbating the distortion of the market. In the long run, regulation, companies, investors, and the whole market are intertwined with each other in a vicious circle. The stock market and the economy are becoming more and more different.
It is not easy for the stock market to show consistency with the economic cycle.
In the past two years, supervision has become the goal of securities market supervision. It should be said that the supervision work has shown determination, perseverance and patience. It is not a one size fits all drug, nor is it a short-term exercise. Instead, it has carried out the market order sorting work step by step and stage. From the front end exchange inquiry to the back end audit punishment, it has worked hard on every link to establish rules and improve the mechanism.
Compared with the past, the current market has changed a lot.
emotion
However, there is always some "resentment" in the market.
First, complaints about the past have greatly damaged the market confidence. No matter how reform is carried out, they are unwilling and complain in any direction.
The second is the resentment of reform. After all, reform needs to change costs. In addition to some vested interests, ordinary investors may also need to change their ideas and investment methods, so they are not suitable.
Third, the expectation is too urgent. It is impossible to cure the decades old disease. It is right for the regulatory reform to be carried out steadily. Many people do not understand it, and they want to "put it in place at one step" as soon as they ask questions.
Fourth, the continuous reform of the securities market needs all-round cooperation, and the laws and regulations on corporate governance, investor protection and other aspects need to be improved.
Now there are some jokes comparing the stock indexes of China and the United States, which are the reflection and expression of these attitudes.
Regulators not only need to hear the voice of the public and be concerned about the voice of all, but also should remain determined to continue to promote and deepen reform.
We should also see more clearly that the right place of supervision is the "right way". If we want to truly "bull", we must not rely on "tuyere" to "blow", but must calm down, endure pain, truly market-oriented reform, and realize value investment.
The healthy development of the capital market has become an important support and mirror image of the economy, and is also the basis for the future competitiveness of the Chinese and American stock markets, as well as Chinese and American enterprises, and the strength competition between China and the United States.
Continuing the reform will not be smooth and smooth, but the regulatory and market positions are on the way.
Editor in charge: Chen Youran SF104
