The shrinking and rising Shanghai Composite Index seems to have indicated that the confidence of the market has recovered.
However, the market's volatile trend shows that large funds are relatively cautious about the increase of stamp duty in the short term.
For those who have struggled through the bear market, anyone can imagine what the increase in transaction tax will bring to this market.
First, according to industry calculations, as of May 30, the average daily turnover in May was 316.9 billion yuan; If the transaction volume keeps at this level in the future, shareholders will pay a stamp tax of 1.9 billion yuan every trading day; In 2006, there were 240 actual trading days. This year, the difference is not much. Then, by the end of May next year, stamp tax alone can reach 456 billion yuan - equivalent to 13% of the total national tax revenue in 2006.
Based on the most common "average transaction cost of retail investors" after tax adjustment, in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, after only 56 transactions, your trading fees will be more than half swallowed.
For example, if your principal has two yuan, and you take one yuan each time as the trading gold to buy and sell stocks, you will lose or earn, then all the buying and selling will count. After 56 times, your transaction costs will accumulate to one yuan!
I don't know, but I'm scared. In my opinion, the increase of stamp duty is the first "long-term" negative policy since the release of the National Ninth Article in February 2004. In the "dual control" market of stock and capital, how many people still remember the National Ninth Article three years ago?
Will the important contents of the National Ninth Article, such as "studying and formulating tax policies to encourage public investment", continue to be "implemented"?
In 2006, the total annual profits of listed companies were 389.2 billion yuan (of which only about 80 billion yuan was in circulation). The profits of listed companies in 2006 were not enough to pay the old stamp tax, let alone the new stamp tax?
The most direct result of high transaction costs is that "bad money drives out good money". If the real law-abiding and rational investors really can't afford to play, they will choose to quit and switch to other varieties.
For example, many funds "burst the dike" and began to push up the "doomsday round" crazily, and several worthless "put warrants" were hyped to the sky; On June 12, the daily trading volume of 14 warrants reached more than 100 billion yuan, accounting for more than 30% of the total trading amount of the two markets on that day.
More worrisome is that“ negotiable securities The black market is resurgent, which is the worst prospect.
Because the market will not always be "bullish", one day, when the trend becomes more and more bearish, individual securities companies will "embezzle a part of customers' trading volume", or even "set up private trading houses", and return to the old way of "gambling" with customers... The risks are self-evident. China Business Daily reporter: ethereal
