⊙ Our reporter Wang Lu
Yesterday, with the deep decline of the overall market, China Southern Airlines recognized the stock of warrants—— Southern airlines It shall be closed at the limit of decline. Based on this situation, some warrant holders attempt to play games with China Southern Airlines China Southern JTP1 It was within the price and rose sharply in the last few trading days. Some investors also believe that as long as the positive shares continue to fall, China Southern Airlines JTP1 can be covered to the warrant expiration date (June 20) for exercise. However, analysts believe that this will not happen. Therefore, it is necessary to remind investors to carefully estimate the probability that the warrant will be exercised in the in price state when it expires and stay away from the "doomsday round" speculation on the basis of a correct understanding of the regulations of the Exchange on the exercise of warrants.
Analysts said that after June 13, China Southern JTP1 stopped trading. Investors who intend to sell their holdings of China Southern JTP1 must sell on or before June 13. However, investors who still hold China Southern Airlines JTP1 must understand that only when China Southern Airlines JTP1 expires as an in price warrant can investors receive the exercise funds. "In the price" here means that the sum of the exercise fee of China Southern JTP1 and the settlement price of the underlying securities is lower than the exercise price of China Southern JTP1.
Analysts especially emphasized that the settlement price of the exercise securities of China Southern Airlines warrants was not the closing price of China Southern Airlines on the maturity date. It is reported that at present, some investors believe that China Southern Airlines JTP1 stock China Southern Airlines can exercise as long as it falls below the exercise price of 7.43 yuan on the expiration date of the warrant. This understanding is wrong. According to the Notice on Matters Related to the Cash Settlement and Exercise of China Southern Airlines Put Warrants jointly issued by Shanghai Stock Exchange and Zhongdeng Company, the settlement price of the underlying securities of China Southern Airlines JTP1 Warrants is the arithmetic average of the daily closing price of China Southern Airlines shares ten trading days before the expiration date of the warrant (excluding the expiration date). Among them, if the shares of China Southern Airlines are suspended on a certain trading day, they will be pushed forward to the trading day without suspension.
According to the above rules, assuming that under extreme circumstances, from today to June 20, the expiration date of warrants, China Southern Airlines will drop the limit every day, then the closing price of the stock on June 19 will be 4.46 yuan, and ten trading days ahead, the closing price of the stock on June 5 will be 10.63 yuan. It is estimated that the average closing price for ten consecutive trading days from June 5 to June 19 is 7.409 yuan. The exercise price of the Southern Warrant is 7.43 yuan, which seems to be within the price range, with a price difference of 0.021 yuan. However, analysts believe that it is obviously wrong to think that China Southern Airlines warrants may have investment value.
On the one hand, it is almost impossible for China Southern Airlines to fall daily for eight consecutive trading days from June 10; On the other hand, even if the holder expects China Southern Airlines JTP1 to be within the price when it expires, that is, it is expected to realize a positive cash spread, it should carefully consider whether the cash spread for the settlement of the exercise of the winning warrants when they expire is more cost-effective than the current direct selling of warrants. Once China Southern Airlines JTP1 continues its current out of price state to its maturity, investors will lose all investment principal. Therefore, investors holding China Southern JTP1 should carefully consider it to make the right decision.
