Wang Bin
With the put warrants of China Southern Airlines (580989. SH) as the last trading day on June 13, the put warrants of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges will temporarily leave the stage. For the only one put in the two markets at present, China Southern put warrants once again staged a "doomsday round" before delisting "without accident".
From May 22 to 30, it became the craziest seven trading days of China Southern Airlines' put warrants, during which the cumulative increase was 168.11%, with the highest single day increase of 45.3%. The SSE also intervened in its repeated implementation of the temporary suspension system. However, despite such great opportunities, insiders still said that it would be better for ordinary investors not to touch the "doomsday round" of put warrants.
Haitong Securities Zhou Jian, a researcher in the derivatives industry, said that the intrinsic value of the put warrants of China Southern Airlines was zero, and it was unlikely that the put warrants would be converted into in price at maturity. and China Southern JTP1 It is a cash settlement. According to the rules, if it cannot be converted to within price upon expiration, it will automatically become waste paper, so the risk is very high. For those warrant speculators, they often operate together, and from the perspective of technology and strength, they are the protagonists of the "doomsday round". They are prescient and run when they are in place. Retail investors who follow the trend are relatively passive in the "doomsday round". Because they are greedy to follow the trend, they passively join the game of "beating drums and passing flowers" and face the huge risk of losing their money. Therefore, it is recommended that small and medium-sized retail investors try to avoid blind speculation of fluke psychology.
In addition, as the last put warrant in the share reform, another important reason why Nangu's "doomsday round" is destined to become the focus of the market again is the sharp cancellation of the securities companies.
Since May 19, the securities companies that created China Southern Airlines JTP1 have started to buy back and cancel on a large scale. In just two weeks, they have cancelled more than 8 billion shares of their creation shares. The sharp shrinkage of the circulation plate has led to the influx of speculative funds for warrants, which has prompted the "doomsday round" speculation of Nangu.
Zhou Jian believes that for many retail investors, due to their limited capital strength, if they blindly hold the idea of fighting with the securities dealers, they will eventually suffer heavy losses. And for the put warrants of China Southern Airlines, which have no intrinsic value, once they cannot be sold in time, it is almost impossible to exercise their rights, which will also bring huge losses.
After the sharp rise, the put warrants of China Southern Airlines once again embarked on the road of return. From the 2nd to the 4th, the put warrants of China Southern Airlines fell consecutively, with a cumulative decline of 35.33%, the highest decline of 26.86% in the 3rd day, which undoubtedly caused heavy losses to investors who had been blindly chasing after high prices.
Some insiders said that warrant trading is an important tool for business departments to "run". Scattered in each business department, there are often some "experts" who are particularly fond of speculating warrants. Under the strength of dual means of capital and information as well as frequent turnover, this part of capital gains final gains through the cancellation of securities dealers. However, for ordinary investors, the first thing to consider is the opportunity risk, that is, chasing high is often the person who will "take the last shot" and eventually lose a lot. Once again, ordinary investors should be reminded that for put warrants without any intrinsic value, it is the best policy not to blindly participate in them, but to wait and see their changes.
