⊙ Wu Jing of Huatai Securities
In warrant investment, some investors tend to prefer warrants with relatively low absolute prices, mistakenly believing that such warrants are cheap and have a lot of room to rise, and even if they fall, there will not be a big decline. In fact, this is a major mistake in warrant investment. Before choosing investment warrants, investors need to fully understand the characteristics of warrant products. First, they should make clear that warrants are derivative rights products, not stocks; Secondly, the value of warrants is determined by many factors, such as the positive share price, the exercise price, and the duration. It cannot simply analyze the size of its absolute price to determine its investment value; Thirdly, the warrants have a duration, and the rights held by the warrants will become invalid after expiration, and the warrants will also stop trading.
With the development of the warrant market, investors need to choose the right warrants according to their own risk characteristics and the risk characteristics of warrants, and purchase the most "right" warrants. According to the analysis, the 16 warrants in the current market can be roughly divided into three categories: low risk, medium risk and high risk:
Low risk warrants refer to the warrants with good underlying fundamentals, and the price of the underlying shares has fallen to a reasonable level after previous adjustment. The warrants have a certain period of time before the maturity date, generally more than 6 months, and the premium rate is low, usually below 20%, such as Steel Vanadium GFC1, Masteel CWB1, Wuhan Iron and Steel CWB1, and Yunhua CWB1. These warrants are suitable for some with low risk tolerance, As a prudent investor, investors can consider buying and holding for a long time.
Medium risk warrants are mainly those with good equity fundamentals and reasonable equity prices. However, the premium rate of such warrants is relatively high, reaching about 50%, or the residual maturity is less than 3 months, but the premium rate still exceeds 20%, for example Rizhao CWB1 , Tsingtao Beer CWB1, Shenzhen Shenfa SFC2, etc. This type of warrant is suitable for investors with certain risk tolerance. Investors can consider seizing the rising band of this type of warrant.
High risk investors are mainly those warrants with high premium rate and put warrants beyond the deep price, for example, SAIC CWB1 , Shenzhen High CWB1, Jiangxi Guangdong CWB1, Sinopec CWB1 and China Southern Airlines JTP1. The value of these warrants is completely separated from the intrinsic value and theoretical value. The price fluctuation is mainly affected by the supply and demand relationship and capital promotion. It is only suitable for investors who pursue short-term price difference income and have strong risk tolerance. For warrants with a premium rate higher than 100%, even if the long-term trend of positive shares is good, Robust investors should also choose to buy positive shares rather than warrants.
