Maintaining a strong consolidation and further confirming and tamping the bottom will become the main tone of the market in the near future. Investors can choose opportunities to optimize the position structure in the strong market shocks.
The A-share market rebounded strongly this Thursday. The regular shares of the warrant were all opened at a price close to the limit, with an average opening increase of 8.73%. The warrant market also opened significantly higher, with an average opening increase of 12.00%.
Since the stock has a 10% increase limit, the average high opening range of 8.73% can fully reflect the excitement of the market. The increase range of warrants is more relaxed than that of regular shares, and the absolute price is low, and the transaction is active. Therefore, on the basis of the substantial increase of regular shares, the average opening increase of warrants is also reasonable at 12.00%.
According to the past practice of the warrant market, when the increase of the positive shares is small, the increase of the warrants may not exceed the positive shares; However, once the normal shares rise or fall, the warrants often rise much more than the normal shares. This is because after the normal shares rise or fall, investors who are optimistic but cannot buy the normal shares can only buy the corresponding warrants to replace the normal shares. This psychological effect is easily recognized by the market, thus attracting funds to enter the warrant market, bringing about a sharp rise in warrants.
The collective sharp rise of the warrants is a reflection of the market sentiment after reducing stamp duty. Its rise is supported by the strong trend of the market and the positive shares of the warrants, rather than the market opportunities brought by the improvement of the valuation indicators of the warrants themselves. Therefore, for future market operations, we should still pay close attention to the positive shares in the short term. We can actively participate in the warrant under the condition of continuing to be optimistic about the market and the positive shares to obtain excess returns. Once we make a wrong judgment, we can also use the T+0 mechanism to withdraw from the market.
In the medium and long term, the excessive increase of warrants relative to the regular shares may lead to the increase of premium rate, which will affect the performance of warrants in the subsequent stages. Therefore, if the warrants have accumulated a large increase, investors should be cautious when intervening.
Since no stamp tax is charged for warrant transactions, the transaction cost advantage of warrants was highlighted after the increase of stamp tax on stock transactions in 2007, but after the reduction of stamp tax on stock transactions this time, the transaction cost advantage of warrants over stocks was greatly reduced, which constituted a hidden negative for warrant transactions, Short term funds may withdraw from the warrant market, and the profit opportunities and activity of the warrant market may be reduced.
Bohai Securities
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
