Bilian Financial Products is an active supplier of derivatives in Asia, providing diversified products, including warrants and structured products, and actively participating in investor education. Please visit Bilian's website for details. Securities prices can rise or fall, and investors may lose all their invested capital. Investors should fully understand the characteristics of warrants and assess relevant risks, or consult professional advisers to ensure that investment decisions can meet personal and financial conditions.
Hong Kong stocks have rebounded significantly since the revival holiday, and the HSI has risen more than 4000 points in 9 trading days; On last Tuesday and Wednesday, it gave up, and adjusted down nearly 594 points on the second day. From the macro level, although the situation of Hong Kong shares and peripheral markets has been more stable in the past two weeks, it is impossible to conclude that the global market has escaped from the subprime crisis, so warrants should be more conservative.
It was mentioned in this column more than months ago that a batch of cap discount warrants in Hong Kong, China were re launched into the market. The structure of cap discount warrants is to buy warrants and simultaneously sell warrants with higher exercise prices, so that the characteristics of cap discount warrants are that their round price, premium, implied amplitude and time value loss are lower than those of standard warrants with similar exercise prices and years. Among them, this column mentioned that the better time to apply the cap discount warrant is that investors think that there may be an increase in the future market of individual positive shares, but the increase is relatively limited. In addition, the overall implied volatility of the shares is relatively high, which is a lower comprehensive risk option than the standard warrant. The top discount warrants have operated in the Hong Kong market for more than three months, and may be able to provide more market data for investors to evaluate the actual performance of the top discount warrants.
Take HSBC's top discount warrant 7100 as an example. 7100 was one of the first batch of newly listed top discount warrants on February 26, 2008. From the 7100 listing last Monday (April 7), its price has risen from 0.89 yuan to 1.36 yuan, a cumulative increase of about 52.8%; During the period, HSBC rose 11.6%, reflecting that cap discount subscription warrants can also give participants moderate leverage. In addition, 7100 also fully demonstrates the defensive nature of the implied amplitude of the top discount card. In the past two months, the implied volatility of HSBC OTC options has changed significantly, with the implied volatility reaching a high of about 35%. Last Monday (April 7), it fell back to about 27%, with a difference of more than 8 amplitude points. During the mandate period, the prices of individual HSBC standard certificates were affected by the extension changes. Relatively speaking, the effective leverage of 7100 listed on the first day is about 3.8 times. If the opening price on the first day is calculated from the previous Monday, the theoretical increase of 7100 should be 44.1%; It is similar to the actual increase (about 52.8%), reflecting the possibility of a downward adjustment in share extension. Because of the low sensitivity of the implied amplitude of the cap discount warrant, the change in the round price is relatively stable.
As for short-term misreading after entering the market, what about the defensive nature of cap discount warrants? The actual performance of Zijin Capped Discount Certificate 9390 in the past month may be used as a reference.
By March 18th Gold price At a new high, Zijin H-shares were issued at 8.7 yuan on the same day, and Zijin Top Discount Certificate 9390 was issued at 0.116 yuan; However, after that, the gold price returned sharply for several consecutive days, dragging Zijin down to 6 yuan for a time, the cumulative decline of equity was about 2.7 yuan or 45%, and 9390 also fell to 0.056 yuan for a time. However, after short-term consolidation, resource prices have stabilized in recent days. Last Monday (April 7), Zijin's share price rebounded sharply for two consecutive days. Last Wednesday (April 9), it closed at 8.6 yuan. If the price of Zijin's regular shares is calculated from March 18 to Wednesday, it is just a reconciliation; However, during the period, Zijin Capped Discount Certificate 9390 rose by 0.015 yuan or 11.5%, and closed at 0.131 yuan last Wednesday. This example can reflect that even if the investors holding the top discount certificates misread the direction in the short term, because the time value loss of the top discount certificates is lower than that of the standard certificates (about 1.5% of the time value loss of one week of 9390), the time value loss required for the holders to wait for the middle line of the positive shares to turn is lower, so that once the middle line of the positive shares recovers, the holders may still have the opportunity to record book profits.
At present, it is difficult to grasp the future trend of Hong Kong shares, because when the price earnings ratio of the HSI is low, there are many institutional investors who take advantage of the low price to absorb; However, the US economic data and the investment climate in Shenzhen and Shanghai have not yet stabilized. At present, there are three choices for ordinary Hong Kong stock investors. One is to wait and see what happens, but this may cause investors to miss the opportunity to enter the market; Second, direct purchase of positive shares, but relatively more funds are used; Third, when the overall implied volatility is still high, we should reject small bets of funds and pay attention to the cap discount warrants with lower comprehensive risk than standard warrants.
