□ GF Securities Guo Yong
Recently, the atmosphere of the stock market has turned pale, leading the warrant market to weaken. On Tuesday, Sinopec CWB1 warrants rose by less than 5% on the first day of listing, becoming the first warrants that failed to be listed on the first day of trading since 2005, and fell 8.18% on Wednesday, following the positive shares. Based on the analysis that the premium rate index of the warrant was still as high as 51% at the close on Wednesday, the price of the warrant is still expensive at present, and the market's unwillingness to catch up reflects the growing rationality of warrant investors.
The warrant is different from the stock. The warrant is a derivative instrument, and its value is closely related to the terms of the warrant and the price of the underlying stock. Therefore, the investment warrant should not ignore the stock represented by the warrant, nor should it be speculated as a completely independent "stock".
To put it simply, the warrant is just a right, and the warrant holder has the right to choose to buy (or sell) the underlying stock at the agreed price at a certain time in the future. If the corresponding stock rises sharply during this period, the value of the warrant may rise, while the value of the put warrant will fall; On the contrary, if the corresponding stocks fall sharply during this period, the value of put warrants may rise, while the value of call warrants will fall. Therefore, the basic strategy of warrant investment is to "buy call warrants bullish and put warrants bearish". On Wednesday, the warrant sector as a whole followed the market callback, and only COSCO CWB1 and Jiangxi Guangdong CWB1 followed their underlying stocks COSCO Shipping and Jiangxi Guangdong Expressway A red against the market just reflects the above operating principles.
However, the complexity of warrant investment compared with stocks lies in that warrants have terms of exercise price and exercise period. If the price of underlying stocks during the exercise period is lower than (refers to the call warrants) or higher than (refers to the put warrants) the exercise price agreed in advance, the exercise power conferred by the warrants will have no meaning, and the warrants will lose their full value and become waste paper. In this sense, it is very important to reasonably evaluate the opportunity and value of warrants to be exercised. Taking China Southern Airlines JTP1 put warrant as an example, the exercise price was 7.43 yuan, and the exercise date was June 20, 2008. The difference was settled in cash. These terms mean that if the market closes on June 20 this year Southern airlines If its share price is 7.43 yuan higher than the exercise price, China Southern JTP1 will lose its exercise value and return to zero.
In the past two years, with a wave of bull market, the vast majority of underlying stocks have increased significantly in varying degrees during the duration of their warrants. Almost all put warrants' exercise prices are far lower than the underlying stock prices at the time of exercise, so it is inevitable that they will eventually return to zero. It is a pity that some investors blindly participate in speculation and cause losses because they do not understand the investment characteristics of warrants and just because the absolute price of warrants is cheap. Based on the analysis of China Southern Airlines' closing price of 20.27 yuan on Wednesday, it is far from the exercise price of 7.43 yuan. For a sound large enterprise, the probability that the stock price will plummet to below 7.43 yuan in a short time is very low. Therefore, the opportunity for the warrant to be exercised is very small, and investors should not blindly participate in speculation.
It is often heard that warrants are highly speculative, and they can lose most or even all of their value in a relatively short period of time. In the past year, such cases have occurred repeatedly, but careful analysis of each case, most of them are due to ignorance or problems in capital management. They speculate warrants as stocks and gamble heavily on certain warrants. If we can reasonably analyze the opportunity and value of warrants and scientifically execute stops, the risk of investment can be effectively managed. "If you want to invest, you need to know first" has become urgent.
