□ Liu Siling of GF Securities
The data in recent days shows that the trading amount of warrants has a rising trend in the market situation of repeated declines in the stock market. For example, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell sharply this Tuesday, with a decline of more than 7%, but the amount of warrant transactions increased significantly, 46.62% higher than Monday. At the same time, the proportion of warrant transactions in A-share transactions also increased. Why does the transaction amount of warrants rise instead of falling in the falling market? After careful analysis, we believe that there may be two reasons.
First, due to the sharp fall of the stock market, the stock price has dropped significantly, and many investors who hold stocks have suffered losses on their books. In the case of the uncertainty of the trend of the regular stocks' repeated shocks, investors may turn to warrants with a "T+0" trading mechanism. Compared with positive shares, the trading mechanism of warrants "T+0" is more flexible in volatile market conditions, enabling investors to make profits or stop losses in time to leave the market, and short-term investment warrants bring investors greater operating space. According to the statistics on Tuesday, the turnover rate of the warrant market has risen significantly, among which Valin JTP1 The turnover rate rose the most, reaching 441%. Some investors may have bought and sold warrants several times during the trading time of a day, and the number of transactions has increased significantly compared with the previous ones, making the transaction amount of warrants rise significantly.
Second, after the stock market fell for several days, some investors believed that the market had fallen back to a lower level and would rebound, so they began to buy warrants to gain the return of warrants after the rebound of the regular shares, which also increased the number of warrants traded. According to relevant data, the number of warrant transactions has increased significantly in recent days. For example, the number of warrant transactions on Tuesday increased by 82% compared with that on Monday. Then look at the transaction of individual warrants. During the five trading days from January 16 to 22, WISCO CWB1 steadily topped the list of warrant transactions, and the cumulative decline of the warrant in these five days reached 21.45%, which reflects that investors continue to enter the market to copy the bottom when the stock price falls in order to win the return of the warrants brought by the rebound of positive shares. According to the data on Tuesday, the effective leverage of WISCO CWB1 is 2.3 times, the highest effective leverage among all subscription warrants, and it is still more than one year away from the maturity date. Investors can expect that its time value will be less wasted. Therefore, for investors who are optimistic about the future trend of regular stocks, it is reasonable to choose WISCO CWB1 Bo to rebound.
However, in the falling market, investors should not enter the market just because the price of a warrant is low or the cumulative decline has been large, but should cooperate with their own views on the trend of positive shares and the atmosphere of the market. Warrants are investment products derived from regular shares. The decline of regular shares will inevitably lead to the decline of warrants. As long as there is no rebound in regular shares, the price of warrants will never perform well. On the other hand, the trading price of warrants is easily affected by market supply and demand and market sentiment. Warrants are explosive investment products only when the market is rich in funds. Therefore, it may be more important to choose the right time than the right type of warrants when investing in warrants in the market with substantial shocks. Before entering the market, you must carefully observe the atmosphere of the big market and the flow of funds.
Finally, investors should be reminded that investing in warrants should always keep in mind the characteristics of the warrants themselves, that is, in volatile market conditions, the price of warrants fluctuates more than regular shares, which will amplify gains and losses. Before entering the warrant market, investors must set a profit point and stop loss position, and strictly abide by discipline to avoid losing more than winning.
