□ GF Securities Guo Yong
The index adjustment intensified on Thursday, dragging down the warrants sector, and only three warrants rose slightly against the market, including SAIC CWB1 Driven by the positive news that stimulated the positive stock to rise against the trend, it finally stopped the continuous downward trend, rising 5.8%. All kinds of signs show that some investors who are optimistic about the market hope to take advantage of the opportunity of decline, actively build positions, deploy and rebound warrants, and use the leverage of warrants to amplify returns. However, when the short-term direction of the market is unclear, investment warrants should still focus on defensive products, such as warrants with large negative premiums.
On the whole, negative premium warrants generally have a certain degree of leverage, and have discount protection, good resilience, and can more effectively resist market fluctuations. For example, recent warrant highlight WISCO CWB1, regular shares Wuhan Iron & Steel In the first ten trading days of 2008, a wave of rising prices emerged, with a cumulative increase of 16%, while WISCO CWB1 rose 22% in the same period under the protection of negative premium, amplifying the 1.38 times increase of positive shares, fully demonstrating the leverage charm of warrants. On Wednesday and Thursday, affected by the overall market adjustment, WISCO shares fell 9.3% in two trading days, and WISCO CWB1 fell 9.5% in the same period. The premium rate narrowed from -14.45% on Tuesday to -10.12% on Thursday. It can be seen that the reduction of negative premium has buffered the leverage effect of warrants amplifying the decline of positive shares.
Of course, if you can follow the rising rhythm of positive shares, and at the same time, you can also obtain the benefits brought by the positive correction of negative premium in the market, it is the best of both worlds for investors. We know that the premium rate will tend to return to zero before the expiration of warrants. At present, the warrants closest to expiration will expire on April 2 Wuliang YGC1 。 Wuliang YGC1 has always been a popular and stable variety in the warrant sector, but it has been neglected due to its high price and low leverage, and has been in a negative premium state of more than 10% for a long time. However, the law that the "doomsday" warrant premium tends to zero indicates that in the remaining two months or so of the duration, either the warrant will rise or the positive stock will fall to realize the return of the premium. Investors who are optimistic about the medium - and short-term trend of positive shares may wish to capture the opportunity to adjust the positive shares in place and obtain the return brought by the return of premium to zero through warrants; For investors who want to hold positive shares in the medium and long term, they can gain certain leverage gains before the expiration of warrants. The exercise price of Wuliang YGC1 is 4.9 yuan, and the exercise ratio is 1.402, that is, one warrant can obtain 1.402 positive shares. Assuming that Wuliang YGC1 is purchased at the closing price of 45.15 yuan on Thursday, the investor will get 1 share with the exercise price of 4.9 yuan Wuliangye Its cost was 45.15/1.402+4.9=37.1 yuan, 14% lower than Wuliangye's closing price of 43.17 on Thursday, which greatly reduced the cost of warehouse building.
