□ GF Securities Guo Yong Liu Siling
In the first half of this week, the trading volume in the warrant market was light, and the newly listed SAIC CWB1 It also showed low performance, compared with those listed before Rizhao CWB1 Compared with Guoan GAC1, SAIC CWB1 only closed its trading limit on the first day of listing. Although it opened 21% higher the next day, the price immediately fell back, and the final closing price rose only 5.4%. SAIC CWB1 failed to seal the trading limit continuously at the beginning of listing, which reflects that investors in the current market are not enthusiastic about participating in warrant trading, and it may not be a good time to invest in warrants at this time.
The two steel warrants we mentioned last week, Masteel CWB1 and Wuhan Iron and Steel CWB1, performed well in the market yesterday. At present, the biggest pressure on the steel sector in the positive stock market mainly comes from the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy. However, the large-scale infrastructure investment of steel enterprises has shown signs of moving from north to south and from east to the central and western regions. Therefore, we believe that the possible opportunities for the steel sector warrants deserve attention.
From the past experience, the best time for warrant investment is when the market has an obvious upward or downward trend and a large amount of funds have poured in. At this time, investors have a high degree of confidence in the running direction of the positive shares to make profits in warrant operations. In practice, investors can consider whether the opportunity to invest in warrants is coming from two aspects.
First, observe the trading situation of the stock and warrant markets. If both of them form the trend of high volume and rapid rise at the same time, and the warrant turnover and its proportion in A-share turnover do not reach the "high" level, then it is a suitable time to intervene. However, when the transaction volume of warrants and its proportion in the transaction volume of A shares reach a very high level, it reflects that the warrant investors may have reached an irrational level, and should be ready to withdraw at any time. For example, after May 30 last year, the proportion of total transaction volume in the warrant market in A-share transactions rose sharply, and reached a historical high on June 26. From the statistical data, before June 26, there were many opportunities in the warrant market, but after June 26, the price of the warrant fell back. At this time, investors who followed up to buy the warrant and held it for a period of time were more likely to suffer book losses.
The second is to observe whether the market direction trend is clear and whether the stock price fluctuation (the fluctuation range of the positive stock in the past period) remains within a reasonable range. As warrants simultaneously amplify the return and loss of investment, investors will have a greater opportunity to hold warrants and wait for the positive shares to reach the target price, so as to earn rich returns only when the stock price volatility remains within a reasonable range. For example, from mid March to mid April last year, the upward trend of the market was clear Wuliangye The trend is good, and the stock price fluctuation is relatively stable, while the investment Wuliang YGC1 About 80% of investors may get about 80% of the income.
Since the New Year, the continuous rise of the stock index has boosted the market sentiment, and the trading volume of the stock and warrant markets has increased. However, from the perspective of the trading ratio, the total trading volume of the warrant market accounts for about 6% - 7% of the A-share trading volume, which is the same as that before the festival. There has been no significant increase, indicating that the funds involved in trading warrants have not increased synchronously with the investment atmosphere.
