GF Securities Product Innovation Department, the primary dealer of warrants
For investors in the warrant market, 2007 is undoubtedly a year to accumulate knowledge and experience. More importantly, under the strict control of the regulatory authorities and the guidance of investor education, the warrant market is losing its speculative color and adding a lot of rational investment thinking. In addition to the frenzied speculation of put warrants and the inertia speculation complex after the listing of new warrants, in fact, most of the time, the profit opportunities in the warrant market are traceable.
Judging the trend of positive shares is the primary principle of warrant selection. For example, in August and September, Masteel CWB1 had a large negative premium for a long time, and the premium once reached - 20%. Although the premium rate during the exercise period should return to zero, if the warrants were purchased only for the arbitrage opportunity of negative premium, then the subsequent development of the situation would certainly disappoint investors, because the adjustment of the steel sector happened before the exercise period, The return to zero of negative premium is directly realized through the continuous decline of positive shares. The reason why the market was able to tolerate such a negative premium before was that the market was conservative about the future trend of positive shares, so it did not actively correct the premium. It can be seen that when investors decide to buy warrants, they must have a judgment on the future trend of positive shares.
After making a judgment on the positive shares, it is necessary to see whether the index of warrants is reasonable. At present, in the domestic warrant market, the indicators worth referring to are premium rate and actual leverage. For the warrant, the premium rate is the percentage of the positive stock to rise. It is advantageous to buy the warrant at the current price to hold the exercise. Although call warrants do not necessarily hold exercises, the high premium rate reflects the high investment risk to some extent, because once the premium rate shows a downward trend, the call warrants will not necessarily rise with the positive shares even if the positive shares rise. The warrants with low premium can not only be relatively close to the trend of positive shares, but also have better resilience if they are protected by negative premium. such as Wuliang YGC1 Since the end of November when it entered the rising channel together with the positive shares, the cumulative increase has reached nearly 31%, while the cumulative increase of the positive shares in the same period is about 27%, and the warrants are currently protected by a negative premium of nearly 14%. As for the actual leverage, it mainly measures the proportion of warrants amplifying the rise and fall of the stock. For example, the tradable exercise period of SZSE SFC1 started at the end of November. I believe many investors have felt the charm of leverage investment.
