□ Huang Dezhi of Huatai Securities
Although the overall market rose a lot yesterday, after a wave of decline of nearly 20%, most individual stocks have a large adjustment range, and there are many hold ups, which is unlikely to reverse in the short term. We believe that the market is expected to bottom at around 5000 points, and the short-term fluctuation range is estimated at 5000-5500 points.
First of all, the decline of non bank blue chips has become the main force for the continuous decline of the market since mid October, especially in the steel, nonferrous metals and coal sectors. In addition to the adjustment requirements brought about by the rapid growth of these sectors from July to mid October, we should also see the changes in the fundamentals of these sectors: due to the impact of rising raw material prices and declining exports, the third quarter report of the steel sector has increased revenue but not increased profits; The prices of major international non-ferrous metals, except tin, also entered the adjustment in the middle of October, with copper and zinc prices falling by nearly 20%; Although the price of coal has risen, the country has issued a series of policies and regulations on resources, safety, environmental protection, etc., which has increased the cost of coal. Recently, the country has raised the resource tax, which will further reduce the profits of the coal industry. Of course, after a wave of 30% - 40% adjustment, it can be said that the basic adjustment is in place, which will not continue to bring too much pressure to the market.
Secondly, although the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has declined since October 16, 2007, most of the second tier blue chips have been adjusted since September. At present, most of these second tier blue chips have been adjusted by 30% - 40%. Not only from the perspective of technical indicators, the time and range have been basically in place, but also from the perspective of valuation, the P/E ratio has returned to a reasonable investable range. these ones here shares Recently, the market has shown a low turnover rate and little willingness to further kill the market. Some OTC funds began to buy on the cheap. Therefore, the bottoming of second tier blue chips will become the main force for market stability.
Thirdly, in the next 1-2 months, including ICBC Credit Suisse, Golden Eagle Fund Fund Xing'an , Nanfang Longyuan, Guotai Golden Elephant Fund Jingyang and Fund Science and Information A large number of funds such as the splitting, sealing, transferring and transformation are expected to bring nearly 100 billion yuan to the market and transfuse A-shares through the funds. In terms of fund positions, among the 223 funds last week, the average positions of equity funds, partial equity hybrid funds and allocated hybrid funds were 78.91%, 76.53% and 65.17%, respectively. The positions have been controlled at a low level, and the funds have a large amount of cash on hand that can be ready to enter the market at any time.
Finally, if this market adjustment is regarded as a two headed pattern, the gap between the head 6092.06 (closing point on October 16) and the neck 5536.57 (closing point on November 6) is 555.50. Technically, the further decline is 550.50 at the neck height, that is, the low point appears around 5000. At the same time, since this round of bull market, every adjustment has been about 15% - 20%, and the low point should also be around 5000.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
