MaSteel CWB1 has two exercise periods in total, the first exercise period is from November 15, 2007 to November 28, 2007. At present, the first exercise period is approaching. Should investors who do not hold Masteel CWB1 buy warrants? For investors who have already held Masteel CWB1, should they ultimately choose to exercise or continue to hold it? The author believes that investors who pay attention to Masteel CWB1 should make wise decisions through certain investment risk and return analysis.
In recent months, Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. CWB1 has continued to show negative premium rate. For a period of time, there has even been a large negative premium between - 15% and - 20%. From the end of August to the middle of September, when Masteel When there was a sharp rise, Masteel CWB1 did not show the leverage effect it should have. It can be seen from this that when market investors do not recognize the rising trend of the positive shares or expect the positive shares to fall, due to the lack of a perfect arbitrage mechanism, the leverage of warrants will not be shown in many cases, and the negative premium of warrants will be corrected to some extent by the final fall of the positive shares. It can be seen from this that at present, although Masteel CWB1 shows a certain negative premium, this negative premium will not necessarily be corrected by the rise in the price of warrants. In addition, during the exercise period, the positive share price may fall, which will bring certain risks to investors, thus making the assumption of arbitrage impossible to become a reality. Therefore, before the exercise, even if Magang CWB1 had a slight negative premium, at this time for investors who do not hold Magang CWB1, buying arbitrage is not a completely risk-free option.
For investors who already hold Masteel CWB1, there are roughly four possible options: choose to sell before the exercise; Exercise and immediately sell the shares; Exercise the right but keep the positive shares for a period of time, and choose the opportunity to throw out; No right, continue to hold Ma Steel CWB1. The specific investment decision should be based on the judgment of the change of the premium degree of Maanshan Steel CWB1 in the near exercise period, as well as the prediction of the future performance of Maanshan Steel and the reasonable range of the stock price. If, a few days before the exercise, Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. CWB1 suddenly appears a large positive premium, leading to the overestimation of warrants, then it should be a wise decision for investors to choose to sell before the exercise. For investors who choose to exercise, they should decide whether to sell the shares immediately after they get the positive shares. If there is a large number of selling of positive shares during the exercise period, resulting in a short-term decline in the stock price, and investors are optimistic about the future performance of Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., then at this time, we should not blindly follow the trend to sell positive shares, but should choose to sell after the positive shares stabilize. If the performance of Maanshan Iron&Steel Co., Ltd. is optimistic for a long time, and there is no great arbitrage opportunity for the exercise of warrants, investors can choose the last investment strategy, that is, not participate in the exercise, but continue to hold Maanshan Iron&Steel CWB1. As Ma Steel will have a certain dilution effect on the capital stock after the exercise, the short-term trend of Ma Steel after the exercise will face greater uncertainty. It is suggested that investors should make their own risk return assessment on relevant factors as early as possible when the exercise period is approaching, so as to reach the best investment decision.
Ma Steel Warrant Primary Dealer Guoyuan negotiable securities limited company
