MaSteel CWB1 will enter the first exercise period on this Thursday (November 15), which lasts from November 15 to November 28, 2007, a total of 10 days. The investors of the warrant should make rational investment decisions.
At present, Masteel CWB1 has experienced a correction of nearly two months, with a decline of more than 40% from the highest point, and a long-term negative premium rate of more than 10%. Until recently, the negative premium rate has decreased. Long term investors left both the high point before the callback and the sideways consolidation during the callback, and the large negative premium reflects investors' interest in Masteel It is the lack of long-term investors that leads to negative premium. Therefore, at present, the majority of investors in Maanshan Steel CWB1 should be short-term operators.
Short term investors mainly focus on the trend of the market and positive shares. Several phenomena worth investors' attention are that after more than a month of box consolidation, the market has broken down and the trading volume has shrunk; On Monday (November 12), the stock market in the Asia Pacific region fell and the central bank cut reserve After the emergence of many negative factors such as interest rate, the market first continued to decline, then increased buying, the index rebounded, and a long shadow line was closed, showing signs of short-term decline; Due to the uncertainty of industry regulation expectations and future costs, the steel sector retreated for nearly two months, during which the short-term rebound did not change the trend of medium-term adjustment. At present, the average P/E ratio of this sector in 2007 has dropped below 20. In the bottoming and rebound of the index this Monday, steel is the sector with a strong rebound; At present, the valuation level of Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. in the steel sector in 2007 is lower than 18, which is lower than the average, while its valuation level in 2008 and 2009 is at a lower level in the sector. Therefore, if there is a positive stimulus in the short term, it is likely that Ma Steel will stabilize and recover. Of course, investors must consider the possibility of adjustment in the overall market when preparing for short-term rebound opportunities. For short-term investors, in order to achieve the above operational ideas, Masteel CWB1's T+0 settlement system still has great advantages over Masteel; At present, there is no significant deviation between the warrant and the trend of the positive stock. The market has already priced the warrant accurately, so investors need not worry about greater fluctuations in the market compared with the positive stock.
Short term traders should pay attention to the negative premium opportunities on the last trading day when the warrants are nearing maturity. If there is a large negative premium before the final closing, such as less than - 5%, and Ma Steel (600808) is still in the upward trend, you can consider buying a certain number of warrants at this time. Prepare the exercise funds and exercise on T+1, sell the positive shares obtained from exercise on T+2, and obtain the exercise income.
Short term investors accustomed to T+0 trading and next day trading should also note that they bought the warrant on November 14 and did not sell it on that day. If they want to sell the warrant in the secondary market next, they need to wait until November 29. Undoubtedly, this will go against the operating habits of many short-term investors, thus making their investment strategies ineffective. Of course, if such investors forget to sell their warrants on the same day, there are also remedial measures. They can choose to exercise in the later exercise period to obtain shares And sell it one day after the exercise, and finally withdraw the cash and complete the transaction.
( citic securities ）
