Ping An Securities Yu Bing Qin Xuwen Gan Yiwu
Source: China Auto Industry Production and Marketing News
In general, the auto industry will maintain a good boom throughout the year. According to the report released by the National Development and Reform Commission on October 17, it is expected that the car price will decline moderately in the fourth quarter, with a decrease of about 4% in the whole year. In addition, consumer demand is still strong, and the wealth effect brought by the rise of the stock market is continuing to release. It is expected that the overall sales and car sales will have an increase of about 24% and 25%. Maintain the "recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry.
International fuel price rises
Short term hard to see impact
Although the international fuel price is hovering at a high level of 85~90 US dollars, there is a long-term upward trend. But in the short term, the impact on China's automobile industry is limited Gasoline price The price did not rise in line with the international market. Because on Fuel tax The road maintenance fee is likely to be cancelled at the same time of the increase. According to the analysis of the Passenger Transport Association, the collection of fuel tax will increase slowly, so it should not have a huge impact on the automobile industry in the short term.
The peak of production and marketing appears,
Steady growth of corporate profits
The overall supply and demand of the industry will not change significantly, and the arrival of the "golden nine and silver ten" is a catalyst for corporate profit growth. In September, 772800 vehicles were sold nationwide, up 21.22% year on year, including 561000 passenger vehicles, up 22.42% year on year, and 211800 commercial vehicles, up 18.15% year on year. Due to the National Day holiday, the actual working days in October are less than those in September. It is expected that the car market sales in October will fall back, that is, the month on month decline. However, the industry consumption characteristics of "Gold Nine Silver Ten" will remain unchanged. In October, auto production and sales will likely remain inertia, achieving rapid growth, and the annual sales volume is expected to reach 9 million units.
In terms of enterprises, the main business income of most enterprises in the automotive industry has maintained a rapid growth, with steady growth. The growth rate of profits and total profits and taxes rose steadily, and the profit level was obvious. From January to August, the main economic indicators of key enterprises (groups) in the automotive industry and the profitability of most enterprises maintained a rapid growth year on year. The accumulated total profit of key enterprises (groups) was 39.102 billion yuan, a significant increase of 72.24% year on year, with an increase of 16.4 billion yuan, 2.43 percentage points higher than that from January to July. Improving gross profit margin while ensuring sales volume is still the key to significantly improve the profitability of key enterprises. Among them, Sinotruk Group, Qingling Corporation, Chery Corporation, BAIC Group and Guangzhou Group achieved rapid profit growth, with growth rates exceeding three digits, respectively 226.82%, 169.48%, 151.33%, 129.50% and 122.01%. FAW Group and SAIC Group achieved profit growth rates of more than 50%, 89.59% and 53.69% respectively.
Consumption structure upgrading,
Promote the bull market of automobiles
With the continuous release of the wealth effect brought by the rise of the stock market, not only has the automobile consumption been greatly boosted, but also the automobile consumption structure has been changed. This change is evident in the passenger car sector: 425900 cars were sold this month, up 22.48% year on year; MPV sold 21900 vehicles, up 22.60% year on year; 34500 SUVs were sold, up 65.20% year on year; The sales of cross type passenger vehicles were 78700, up 9.64% year on year.
This month, 34500 SUVs were sold, up 65.2% year on year, which is still the fastest growing product in the passenger car industry. From January to September, 251700 SUVs were sold, up 51.72% year on year. From the perspective of sales structure, 121200 two wheel drive SUVs were sold from January to September, with a year-on-year increase of 54.25%; Four wheel drive SUVs sold 130500, up 49.45% year on year.
Domestic and imported SUVs have improved in various internal and external technologies to varying degrees, improving safety and comfort and stimulating consumption while increasing power and reducing fuel consumption. From the sales ranking of domestic SUV manufacturers in August and September, Dongfeng Honda, which produces medium and advanced SUVs, jumped to the top of the month, while Great Wall Motors, the sales champion last month, fell to the fourth place. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, in the first half of this year, more than 40% of the total sales of SUVs in China were monopolized by imported SUVs, with an average monthly import of 7000 SUVs.
In addition, in the first three quarters of this year, the cross type passenger vehicle (mini bus) market maintained a steady growth, with a total sales of 726800 vehicles, up 9.56% year on year. The technological progress of products lags behind the upgrading speed of consumer demand, which is an important reason for the relatively slow growth rate of such vehicles. Among them, 364700 vehicles with displacement ≤ 1L were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 7.74%, accounting for 50% of the sales of cross type passenger vehicles.
The deep reason for the rapid increase in sales of medium and high class cars and SUVs and the decline in sales of small displacement minicars is still the improvement of national income and living standards. And this fundamental driving force should not change in a short time, so the improvement of consumption level is a direct manifestation of the continuing bull market of automobiles and an important factor for our optimism about the market.
Market performance of mainstream automobile manufacturers in September
Shanghai GM won the sales championship in September with a total sales volume of 43726 vehicles, up 19% year on year. In September, the growth rate of Shanghai GM was 6 percentage points higher than 13% in the first half of the year. We think this is related to the promotion efforts of SGM in September. If SGM's promotion efforts can be maintained, the growth rate in September can be maintained in October and November. However, due to the high base in December last year, the growth rate is expected to slow down in December this year.
The sales of Shanghai Volkswagen showed a negative growth in September, mainly because the second factory of Shanghai Volkswagen expanded its production capacity and stopped production. In the fourth quarter, Shanghai Volkswagen will still resume the growth rate of about 40% in the first half of the year.
The sales growth rate of FAW Volkswagen in September decreased by about half compared with the growth rate of about 45% in the first half of 2006, mainly because the sales base of FAW Volkswagen in the first half of 2006 was low, while the sales volume in the second half of 2006 was high. The sales growth rate of FAW Volkswagen is still high relative to the industry growth rate. Due to the gradual emergence of product advantages, we expect FAW Volkswagen will continue to grow at a growth rate not lower than that of September in the fourth quarter.
FAW Xiali September continued the trend of negative growth in the first half of the year, and the pace of sales shrinking is accelerating. The growth rate in September was - 37.6%, while the growth rate in the first half of the year was - 8.99%. We believe that although the company's products have competitive advantages over Geely and Chery in this market segment, they are low-end small cars with low technology content and poor product grade. Affected by the trend of car consumption upgrading this year, this market segment is shrinking in general, and FAW Xiali cannot reverse this situation.
FAW car September showed a strong growth trend, mainly due to M6 price reduction promotion and Pentium began to expand. We believe that this trend will be strengthened in the fourth quarter, and the growth rate will exceed September.
Due to the strong sales of Crown and Corolla, FAW Toyota's sales continued to maintain a strong growth in September. This growth trend will be strengthened due to Corolla's high volume in the fourth quarter.
Changan Ford's growth rate in September reached 58.6%, mainly due to Fox We estimate that this trend will continue in the fourth quarter, but the growth will slow down.
Beijing Hyundai continued the trend of shrinking sales in the first half of the year, and the negative growth rate was faster than that in the first half of the year (- 38.3% in September, - 26.4% in the first half of the year). We believe that this situation is mainly due to the aging of Beijing Hyundai's models. The main model Elantra has gradually lost the popularity of consumers in the mid-range entry-level mid-range segment. It is expected that with the launch of the new Elantra in 2008, Beijing Hyundai may end this downward trend in sales.
DPCA only achieved 7.8% growth in the bull market atmosphere of the passenger car market this year, which is not satisfactory. The main reason is that new and old products lack competitiveness at the product level. This trend is expected to continue in the fourth quarter.
Guangzhou Toyota has maintained a strong growth momentum since its listing in June last year. In September, 16723 units were sold, with a growth rate of 112.5%, which was achieved from a relatively low base (7869 units) in September this year, but this growth rate will gradually decline with the increase of production and sales scale.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
