Ping An Securities Derivatives Department Zhang Junjie
With the gradual delisting of share reform warrants, there are fewer and fewer tradable varieties in China's warrant market. As of November 2, only 16 warrants were still listed for trading, including 12 call warrants and 4 put warrants. Since the share reform has basically ended, the possibility of issuing new warrants through the share reform is extremely low. At present, the newly added warrants are all equity warrants separated from separated convertible bonds.
Due to the tradition of "speculation" in China's market, newly listed warrants are often sought after by investors. For example, Yunhua CWB1, Maanshan Steel CWB1 and other warrants were firmly sealed on the first day of listing. The Shenzhen High CWB1, which was listed on Tuesday, went up and down continuously three trading days after listing, with a cumulative increase of 140.35% compared with the opening reference price. For many investors, newly listed warrants often mean profit opportunities, but also contain greater risks. So, how should investors judge the opportunities and risks of newly listed warrants?
First of all, investors should have a detailed understanding of the fundamentals of regular shares, in-depth analysis of the company's profitability and development prospects, and be aware of the performance of regular shares in the duration of warrants. At present, the listed companies that can issue separately traded convertible bonds are all blue chip companies with relatively good fundamentals, but there are still some gaps in specific companies, which will affect the market's expectations of warrant prices.
Secondly, we should pay attention to the issuance of warrants and the size of the circulation plate. Generally, the smaller the circulating price, the more the warrants are in short supply, and the increase of warrants in the initial period of listing may also be greater. Taking Cloudchem CWB1 as an example, its circulation volume is 54 million, and its circulation market value is only about 500 million yuan based on the closing price of 9.344 yuan on the first day of listing. On the fourth day of the listing of Cloudization CWB1, the highest price reached 15.449 yuan, up 133.40% from the opening reference price of 6.619 yuan. The circulation volume of Shengao CWB1, which was listed on Tuesday, was 108 million. However, due to the low price, the circulation market value was not much different from that of Yunhua CWB1 at the initial stage of listing, and it was also warmly sought after by investors, with a huge increase in the short term.
For such newly listed warrants, investors can participate in the call auction at the ceiling price on the first day of listing. If they are lucky enough to buy them, they will get a lot of short-term gains. For short-term investors who have obtained warrants by purchasing bonds, they can choose the opportunity to sell on the day when the warrants are not capped. If investors are optimistic about the trend of positive shares in the long term, they can also hold warrants in the long term.
Of course, newly listed warrants contain both opportunities and risks. First of all, due to the popularity of investors at the initial stage of the listing of warrants, the premium rate and extension amplitude are likely to remain high, and the market price of warrants may be seriously overestimated relative to the theoretical value. For example, after rising for several consecutive days, the current premium rate of Shenzhen High CWB1 has reached 83.55%, and the extension amplitude has reached 138.03%, 2.64 times the historical amplitude of its corporate stock. The value has been seriously overestimated. If investors blindly pursue such high valued warrants, they may lose money due to the decline of the extension amplitude even if they see the right direction of the positive shares. This reminds investors to pay attention.
