Primary dealer of warrants GF Securities Liu Siling
Duration, maturity, exercise price, actual leverage and premium are information or indicators that warrant investors need to pay attention to. However, not every investor can fully grasp the relevant data or information, so how should we use the limited data to make a reasonable analysis of warrant investment? In fact, investors can keep an eye on some indicators for a period of time, their ups and downs or changes, and try to match them with the market conditions. Through tracking and observation, we can find some characteristics of the warrant price trend and its indicators. The following is an example of premium indicators.
The premium represents the percentage range of positive share price that needs to change in favor of investors before the expiration of warrants. This indicator is not an ideal short-term indicator, but it is suitable for investors who intend to hold warrants for a long time as a reference. The premium in the warrant has time value. Investors who intend to hold the warrant for a long time can pay attention to the change of the warrant premium within one month from the maturity date to decide their own operation strategy. Take the Guodian subscription that ended trading on Tuesday as an example. From August 8, Guodian's subscription presented a slight negative premium, ranging from - 3.24% to -0.69%. A careful observation of investors should be able to find that the negative premium is due to the fact that the trading of positive shares is more active than that of warrants. Most of the time, warrants perform poorly in terms of the increase of positive shares. For example, when the market closed on August 10, the positive shares rose 2.91% compared with the previous trading day, while the warrants rose only 1.72%, with a premium of - 3.22%. On the last trading day, Guodian's subscription also had a slight negative premium (-2.72%). However, since the warrant was a European style warrant, the exercise method was negotiable securities Settlement by payment method, income from exercise shares They can only be sold on the next trading day. In the case of a small negative premium, investors face the risk of holding shares overnight, and the exercise may not be stable. Therefore, investors can decide whether to sell or hold before or on the last trading day according to the extent of the negative premium of warrants and the expectation of the stock price trend of the positive shares. If they are optimistic about the future market of the positive shares, they can hold them until the expiration of the exercise. If they are pessimistic about the future market, they should sell them.
In addition to premium, other indicators such as actual leverage and extended volatility are also useful references for investment warrants. At present, some securities companies will provide these indicators through websites and newspapers. Investors can read the data provided on newspapers or websites to understand their warrants.
