Qin Hong: Two types of jobless stocks are expected to show off

Qin Hong, Bohai Investment Research Institute

Recently, the A-share market has changed from the main rising wave trend of the smooth rising channel in the earlier stage to the box trend characteristic of repeated shocks. However, the trading volume showed that many individual stocks continued to show off their strength by virtue of the investment highlights of the real estate business. For example, there were individual stocks whose semi annual results were expected due to the growth of the real estate business, Zijiang Enterprise That's it. It seems that the real estate business has become a new driving force for active stocks.

　　 Two big powers to do more

　　 For listed companies, the real estate business has not only achieved rapid growth in net profits, but also promoted the stock nature of the secondary market to become active. The reason for this is that the real estate business will give the A-share market two driving forces to do more.

First, the real estate business gives a catalyst to the stock price of the secondary market, because recently it is the performance forecast period of the semi annual report of the A-share market, and currently all funds are very sensitive to the performance forecast of the semi annual report.

As long as the performance of low and medium price stocks increases by more than 100%, most of them will become the focus of short-term hot money. The commonness of these low and medium price stocks lies in the low gross profit margin of main business and the low net profit base of the same period in previous years.

As we all know, the real estate business is a huge profit. After the share reform, the controlling shareholders and the management of listed companies have a strong impulse to "manage the market value". Therefore, the real estate business has little incentive to transfer profits, which can almost be reflected in the statements of listed companies. Thus, the net profits of listed companies have soared, Considering the low base in the same period of previous years, such information will naturally bring a strong visual impact to the secondary market, thus triggering the activation of the stock price in the secondary market, as Zijiang Enterprises did.

Second, the real estate business often becomes the safety margin of short-term stock prices. Because the main business of some listed companies is still at the stage of profit release, if short-term valuation is carried out according to the main business at this time, there is no doubt that the stock price will be relatively overvalued. At this time, it is urgent to balance the fluctuation curve of net profit by real estate and other profit-making businesses. Therefore, once you have real estate business, the secondary market will obtain a certain margin of security for stock prices. Typical ones are Zhongheng Group Anhui Water Conservancy Etc.

　　 Focus on two types of real estate business stocks

　　 Therefore, the author speculates that individual stocks with real estate business at present are very likely to become the varieties of repeated bravado in the secondary market share price in the near future. On the one hand, they are expected to gain profit growth points due to the real estate business entering the payback period, and may become the members of the semi annual report, which gives a strong stock price catalyst. On the other hand, they are expected to smooth the profit growth curve due to the net profit brought by the real estate business, thus giving them a catalyst for the stock price in the secondary market.

Following this line of thinking, in practical operation, it is suggested that investors can focus on two types of individual stocks:

First, the real estate business has obviously entered the payback period for individual stocks. For example, Shanghai Garbo has a strong trend recently. Its public information shows that Shanghai Green Style Real Estate Development Co., Ltd., a 30% shareholder, began to carry forward sales revenue in 2006 through development investment in the first three years, becoming a strong engine for the growth of the company's net profit. Similar stocks still exist Mindong Electric Power Anhui Water Conservancy Wolong Electric Etc.

Second, the main business has a good prospect, but the real estate industry is expected to give high margin of safety to individual stocks in the short term. The long-term investment characteristics of such individual stocks are stronger than those of the former, because the main business prospect is relatively clear. After the smooth profit curve of the real estate industry, the stock price trend of the secondary market will be stronger. for instance Hengshun Vinegar 、 New Fashion Industry 、 Red bean shares wait.