Recently, the variety of warrants has become the focus in the A-share market, especially after the recent trading volume of warrants has successively exceeded the trading volume of Shenzhen and Shanghai A-shares, which has started to cause market speculation. Is it true that the active warrant market has diverted funds from investing in stocks?
T+0 transaction enlarges warrant trading volume
Recently, a large amount of funds poured into the warrant market, which will undoubtedly divert some short-term hot money out of A-shares, but will not have a substantial impact on the trend of A-shares. Because the fund invested in warrants by a single investor accounts for a very low proportion of the fund in the individual account, most investors tend to spend 30000 to 40000 yuan to buy warrants. If you lose, you will not hurt your muscles and bones, but if you win, you will get more income.
In the final analysis, the reason why the recent trading volume of warrants has increased rapidly is that the T+0 trading mode has caused trouble. Because the warrant varieties can be traded repeatedly on the same day, the trading volume of 10000 yuan will even increase to 100000 yuan or 200000 yuan. Therefore, on the surface, the daily warrant trading volume of more than 100 billion yuan may actually absorb more than 10 billion yuan of capital. The capital of more than 10 billion yuan is just a piece of cake for the current A-share market, and has no substantive impact.
The era of sudden profits of warrants is over
Because the T+0 trading mode reduces the authenticity of the trading volume of warrants, when analyzing warrants, we cannot simply measure the popularity of the warrant market and the size of opportunities by the size of the trading volume.
From the current market, the trend of warrants has gradually gone. First, the leading variety of warrants Potash fertilizer JTP1 It officially withdrew from the market last Friday, and the loss of leading varieties means the loss of mainstream funds. Therefore, analysts believe that the current activity of warrant varieties is mainly caused by some strong follower funds, whose purpose is no longer to continue to raise the price of warrant varieties, but to find opportunities to reduce positions in the shock. Secondly, after the continuous boom of warrant varieties, the characteristics of large-scale stagflation have obviously appeared, indicating that the capital outflow rate of the involved warrant varieties is fast. Third, at present, the large-scale creation of warrants by securities companies also makes the scale of warrants in a relatively uncertain expansion process, which will greatly inhibit the speculation of warrants. It can be seen from this that the main rise of warrant varieties has passed, and the era of relying on warrants to obtain huge profits is gradually fading away. Even if there are short-term speculative opportunities, ordinary investors are difficult to obtain relatively certain return expectations. Therefore, it is suggested that investors should stay away from warrant trading to avoid unnecessary losses.
Qin Hong, Bohai Investment Research Institute
