Primary dealer of warrants GF Securities Guo Yong
As of the closing of May 10, there are only 5 trading days left for the last day warrant Changdian CWB1 Driven by the 2.66% increase in the positive shares, it rose 2.72%, while the premium rate further expanded rapidly from - 3.84% in the previous trading day to - 4.73%. According to the latest exercise price of 5.35 yuan, the intrinsic value of Changdian CWB1 is up to 10.1 yuan, and the actual leverage is about 1.6 yuan. On the other hand, there are indications that the warrant market has been dominated by funds from the "flash party" recently, such as Tuesday Guodian JTB1 On Wednesday, Changdian CWB1, on Thursday, Maanshan Steel CWB1 and Sinochem CWB1, each variety had only a brief sharp increase in one day. At the end of the day, there were a large number of active closing positions that were unwilling to stay overnight, and the premium rate of these warrants was significantly low. These phenomena suggest that the mainstream capital in the current equity market is quite "rational" and "restrained", and tends to control risks, Then, whether the one-day market of these warrants is "egg or chicken" (the warrants are driven by the positive shares, or because the warrants affect the trend of the positive shares), it is worth thinking deeply. Under the current market atmosphere, participate in the CWB1 Yago QCB1 The risk of such doomsday warrants may also be different from usual.
As we all know, it is one of the main charms of warrants to be small and broad through leverage effect. We have discussed the value of Changdian CWB1 and others from the perspective of leverage effect for many times. However, it is not enough to only care about effective leverage when the main force tends to be conservative. By observing the recent trend of Changdian CWB1, its price has maintained a strong linkage with the price of positive shares, closely following the pace of positive shares. It can be seen that the market's evaluation of the value of the doomsday warrant is more rational, and there is no doomsday speculation, partly because its lower actual leverage reduces the function of the warrant to amplify returns. However, it is worth noting that the recent actual leverage of Changdian CWB1 is about 1.6, which is the highest among all warrants in the current market, and its negative premium is also greater than that of Yago QCB1.
However, since the actual leverage measures the extent to which warrants amplify the volatility of positive shares, high leverage brings both speculative opportunities and high risks, while low actual leverage gives investors the opportunity to participate in the warrant market under relatively low risks. Even if the positive share price will decline significantly in the future, the decline of the warrant price will not be too large. Conservative and prudent investors will consider holding such deep in price warrants with low leverage and negative premium. For the negative premium doomsday warrant CWB1 in the deep price, investors who are optimistic about its positive shares can buy the warrant to hold the exercise at the right time and obtain positive shares at a relatively low cost of capital. Of course, investors also bear the risk of future positive share fluctuations, so it is the key point to invest in warrants to grasp the trend of positive shares in the future within a specific time limit.
