Three weapons of warrant trading

□ Morning News reporter Zhang Jia

Although the stock index futures have not yet been launched, people of interest have already focused on the covered warrants that will be launched later. It also has leverage effect. It can be traded at T+0, and the maximum loss is just the purchase of principal. In addition, it can be traded using a stock account. Warrants are very attractive to many short-term investors. On the "China Warrant Elite Forum" last Saturday, Li Jin and Chen Liyan from Faxing Securities, the first issuer of Hong Kong warrants, and Guo Yong from GF Securities expressed their views on current and future warrant investment.

The A-share warrant market has developed rapidly

Li Jin pointed out that the warrant market in Hong Kong has developed so long that the daily trading volume of warrants in the first quarter accounted for 20.6% of the overall trading volume of the market. Since the birth of A-share warrant market in 2005, the current trading volume percentage has been about 10%, which can be described as a very rapid development.

Li Jin also pointed out that the existing A-share warrants are all equity warrants issued by listed companies in the share reform, with a relatively single variety. In the Hong Kong stock market, warrants are issued by securities companies

　　 Five waves of A-share warrants

Reviewing the six major quotations in A-share warrant market since 2005, it points out that they have their own characteristics.

When the first warrant was listed on August 22, 2005, the focus was on supply and demand. At that time, it was necessary to do a good job in warrant trading, mainly relying on technical analysis and trading technology. Since October 28, 2005, with the launch of the creation system, the market has focused on the premium of warrants (taking the warrant as an example, that is, the lower the exercise price of the warrant minus the current price of the positive shares, the better), and hyped the low premium warrants. Since April 28, 2006, as the market has gone up, the focus of the market is on leverage. Warrants with high effective leverage (that is, when the price of equity shares changes by 1%, the price of warrants theoretically changes by several percent) have been sought after. Since July 12, 2006, with the market uncertainty after the market adjustment, the hot spot of the market has returned to the premium rate again, and put warrants have become a short tool in the falling market. On August 17, 2006, Baosteel's warrants entered the final trading stage. For the first time, the market recognized the explosive speculation in the last few days of the Doomsday warrants. Since then, steel stocks have entered the rising stage, and many steel warrants have entered the final stage, which gave birth to the real sense of doomsday warrant speculation.

Three indicators should be taken into consideration in warrant speculation

Guo Yong summarized the five waves of warrants before and pointed out that leverage and premium are the two main themes of the current A-share warrants market speculation. Leverage is an offensive indicator. Once entering the rising market, highly leveraged stocks will surely benefit the most. The premium is a measure of risk and defensive indicators. Once the market doubts the future market will continue to rise, defensive warrants with low premium will perform better.

Among the three indicators for judging the quality of warrants, the extended volatility, which measures the market's judgment on the fluctuation of positive shares, has not been of much guiding significance so far. Guo Yong believes that the main reason is that the current warrants are equity warrants, and there is a lack of market makers to maintain a reasonable extended volatility. In the future, once the covered warrants appear, the fluctuation will also become an important speculation theme. At that time, even if you can't see the direction of the regular shares, you can judge the emergence of major shocks and also make money.

Three ideas for warrant speculation

Guo Yong summarized four common warrant ideas in the current market and suggested investors to choose according to their own conditions:

1、 Band strategy. Judging that there will be a substantial rise in the positive shares, the midline holds the warrant. The remaining term of the selected warrants cannot be too short, and a negative premium is better.

2、 Small profit and large trading volume strategy. A large number of transactions are carried out every day. Although the profit is small each time, the cumulative effect is also considerable. This requires a fairly high accuracy rate, and warrant liquidity should also be relatively high.

3、 Negative premium arbitrage strategy. Select the end day negative premium warrant and participate in the exercise to obtain the space of negative premium.