Question 1: How do you view and analyze the background of the recently hot fund market as the national regulatory authority of the fund industry?
For more than a year, the prosperity of the capital market and the generous investment returns in the fund market have led to a surge of investment enthusiasm, and investors are eager to buy securities investment funds. The reasons for this phenomenon are multifaceted, and it is the result of the harmonious integration and organic combination of policy opportunities, market opportunities and historical opportunities, Therefore, we should rationally consider its profound background reasons.
First, it benefits from the increasingly optimized macro financial environment in China and the continuous improvement of the basic system of the capital market. Since the issuance of Several Opinions of the State Council on Promoting the Reform, Opening up and Stable Development of the Capital Market at the beginning of 2004, with the continuous deepening of the reform and development of China's capital market, the split share structure reform has been successfully completed, initially laying the institutional foundation for the effective functioning of the market-oriented mechanism, and the deep contradictions and structural problems of the market have been gradually solved. With the smooth progress of the construction of basic systems such as comprehensive governance of securities companies, clearing up the occupation of funds by major shareholders, and illegal guarantees by listed companies, the internal foundation of market operation has been consolidated, market innovation has been promoted, and market efficiency has been improved.
At the same time, the market-oriented reform of the securities issuance system is deepening; The market legal system has been continuously improved, and the level of supervision and law enforcement has been steadily improved; The diversified institutional investor pattern has initially taken shape, the foundation for stable market operation has been gradually consolidated, and the market environment for institutional investor development has gradually improved. With the gradual implementation of these basic institutional construction, market confidence has gradually recovered, providing a good institutional guarantee and environmental basis for the great development of the fund industry.
Second, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly, and residents' income has steadily increased, which objectively provides a huge space for the fund market to expand its business. For a long period of time, China's economy has continued to develop rapidly, foreign exchange reserves have increased rapidly, expectations of RMB appreciation have increased, per capita income has continued to increase, and financial assets and disposable income of residents and households have increased rapidly.
With the deepening of residents' awareness of financial products, especially the impact of higher income financial products such as stocks and funds, the majority of residents have a stronger sense of financial investment, and the family asset structure has undergone profound changes. Therefore, the huge scale of residents' savings and the maturity and change of residents' investment demand, investment behavior and investment psychology have laid a solid foundation for the development of the capital market and the fund industry.
Third, the desire of investors for long-term investment is growing, and long-term investment demand is increasingly prominent. The need to maintain and increase the value of wealth through specialized financial institutions is increasingly urgent. The fund product's characteristics of "collective financing, professional management; portfolio investment, risk diversification; benefit sharing, risk sharing; strict supervision, transparent information; independent custody, and fund security", to a certain extent, catered to and met the basic investment needs of investors.
Fourth, the concentrated outbreak of wealth effect in the capital market in 2006 is also a realistic reason for the popularity of the fund market. Since last year, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has soared, and as the largest institutional investor in the A-share market today, the fund has gained a lot. The return rate of open-end equity funds is 121.4%, while the closed-end funds that were in high discount rate for a long time in the past have also been in the limelight since last year. In 2006, the return rate of their net worth reached 106.49%, and the market price increased by 230% from July 2005 to the beginning of 2007. The vast majority of small and medium-sized investors directly buy stocks, bonds or deposit funds in the bank with much lower returns than buying funds. Therefore, the earning effect makes the fund the preferred investment product for many residents.
Fifth, the establishment and improvement of the social security system has also brought good opportunities for the development of the fund industry. In the process of vigorously developing the social security system, China's enterprise annuities, pensions and social security funds will play a more important role in economic life, and their internal investment needs objectively require the gradual growth and improvement of the fund industry.
Sixth, the fund industry has maintained a good momentum of rapid and healthy development. While promoting the development of the fund industry, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) strengthened strict supervision and tried to consolidate the foundation for the development of the industry. Through measures such as improving the legal system, strengthening daily supervision, actively promoting innovation, and steadily expanding opening up, the entire industry has initially formed a diversified competition pattern, which has improved the competitiveness of fund management companies.
At the same time, in the system design of the comprehensive supervision system of securities investment funds in China, clear rights and responsibilities, mutual independence, separation of powers and checks and balances, and efficiency and fairness are the most important characteristics of the system, as well as the embodiment of its institutional advantages. It is conducive to giving full play to the wealth function of the capital market, and it is also conducive to enabling the broad masses of people and investors to better share the fruits of China's economic growth. To a certain extent, it provides a fundamental institutional guarantee for the sustained, healthy and rapid development of the fund industry.
Question 2: In fact, as a financial product or industry, funds have existed for a long time in China. Facing the current fund boom in China, the market tends to emphasize returns and tend to ignore risks in a bull market. What suggestions do regulators have for investors?
At this stage, the high returns that the fund brings to investors make some investors ignore the investment risks behind the fund, which brings great worries to the healthy and stable development of the fund market. Therefore, investors should calmly examine and understand fund products and the fund industry from a historical, objective and dialectical perspective.
First, understand fund products. The securities investment fund refers to a collective investment method of sharing interests and risks by selling fund shares to gather the funds of many investors to form independent property, which is entrusted by the fund custodian and managed by the fund manager. Its main function is to diversify investment, avoid the risk of individual stocks, and share the results of investment. Fund investors enjoy the income of securities investment funds according to the number of fund shares they hold, and also bear the risk of investment losses. Securities investment funds are different from bank deposits and bonds. Investors who invest in securities investment funds may obtain higher returns and may also lose principal. Choosing different types of funds requires taking different risks and obtaining corresponding returns. Generally speaking, the greater the possibility of obtaining benefits, the greater the risk. According to different investment objects, China's funds can be divided into stock funds, bond funds, hybrid funds and money market funds. As far as risk is concerned, stock funds have the highest risk, followed by hybrid funds, and bond funds and money market funds have the lowest risk. According to different investment concepts, it can be divided into active funds and passive (index) funds. Active fund is a kind of fund that strives to surpass the performance of benchmark portfolio. Passive funds do not actively seek to outperform the market, but try to replicate the performance of the index, and generally select a specific index as the object of tracking, so they are often called index funds. Comparatively speaking, active funds are more risky than passive funds, but may also obtain greater returns.
Second, understand the history of the fund industry. From the historical perspective, securities investment funds are the inevitable product of the development of the capital market, which has a history of more than 100 years in developed countries. Since the 1940s, the governments of developed countries have recognized the importance of securities investment funds, and have legislated to strengthen supervision and improve the protection measures for investors, providing a good external environment for the development of the fund industry. Since the 1980s, securities investment funds have been popularized worldwide, and the rapid expansion of the fund industry is becoming an international phenomenon.
The history of fund development in China originated in 1992, and the standardized fund originated in March 1998. Although the history of regulating funds in China is not long, funds have also experienced many ups and downs in the past nine years, including the "May 19" market in 1999, the high point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 2245 in June 2001, the low point of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index 998 in July 2005, and Non tradable shares The joy of reform. The history of fund development in China also proves that fund is an effective tool for long-term financing, rather than a tool for short-term speculation. In 1998, China set up the first batch of five closed-end funds: Fund opening 、 Fund Jintai 、 Fund Xinghua 、 Fund Anxin and Fund Yuyang According to the statistics of these five funds, their net worth has increased by 366.55% on average from the establishment of the fund in 1998 to January 12 this year. Recently, Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. found that more than 60000 of the original 310000 initial investors had held the fund until the end of November 2006, and their cumulative return rate exceeded 380%. If they continued to hold the fund until the middle of January this year, the return rate could reach 440%. While we see that long-term investment funds have gained huge profits, we should also see that many investors who blindly enter the market in pursuit of gains and losses in the market have also paid a heavy price. For example, investors who entered the market near 2245 points on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index in June 2001, with the index falling to 1451 points on January 25, 2002, their net asset value of funds also fell 19.18%. Considering the discount factor of closed-end funds, a considerable number of investors lost more than 40%. The 33 closed-end funds established in January 2002 basically recovered to their net value before the previous round of decline in early January 2004, which took about 24 months; The principal of these investors was recovered in the second half of 2006, which took at least 54 months. In addition, from April 2, 2004 to June 3, 2005, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell from 1768.65 to 1013.64, down 42.69%. During this period, 29 open-end funds fell by 20.42% on average. These funds basically recovered the losses of the previous round of decline from June 3, 2005 to the end of February 2006, which took eight to nine months.
History tells us that there is no stock market that can only rise without falling, nor financial products that can only earn without losing. The above statistics also show that investors who participate in the market in a speculative way, the greater their investment losses, the longer it takes to recover the principal.
Third, understand the characteristics and risks of investment funds. With the rapid growth of the national economy and the continuous increase of social wealth, especially under the current background of controlling the growth of bank credit and preventing the excessive investment in fixed assets, it is not a bad thing for investors to invest in fund products and divert savings, which will help ease the pressure on banks to operate, help solve the problem of excess liquidity, and reduce the systemic risk of China's financial structure.
However, it is definitely undesirable and irrational for residents to invest preventive savings in the high-risk capital market under the temptation of rich returns in the recent stage. Because, the motivation of this kind of funds entering the market is to make money, which is to win, lose and lack the ability to resist risks. In the case that the current social security system is not perfect, the large-scale entry of these funds into the market will not play a positive role in the healthy development of the capital market, the construction of a harmonious society and social stability, but may also bring adverse factors. Therefore, investors should focus on preventing the following three wrong views:
One of the wrong ideas: treat funds as savings. All the money from the preventive savings deposits of the original "pension and disease prevention" or the purchase of national debt is used to purchase funds, mistaking funds for high-yield savings.
The second wrong view: to make money while managing money. As the stock market continued to rise in 2006, the average return rate of funds in 2006 reached more than 50%, and the return rate of many equity funds exceeded 100%. Take the hot market this year as "normal", blindly believe that the purchase of funds is profitable, and ignore various risks of investment funds.
The third wrong view: speculation as investment. It only pays attention to the investment income, makes irrational judgments on the market law, encourages strong speculation psychology, and completely ignores and forgets the essential characteristics of rational investment, value investment, and long-term investment in the capital market and fund products.
Therefore, new fund investors must master relevant knowledge and establish correct financial management concepts. According to their own risk tolerance, select suitable fund products and make clear fund investors. Therefore, generally speaking, the factors that determine the performance of funds mainly include the following five aspects. First, asset allocation. The higher the proportion of shares in the allocation of investors, the higher the risk they take, and the greater the return. For example, in the rising market in 2006, CSI 300 The index rose 121.02%, open-end equity funds rose 121.4%, open-end partial equity hybrid funds rose 112.46%, and open-end bond funds rose 20.92%.
From April 2004 to June 2005, in the market decline, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 42.69%, the open-end equity funds fell 20.42%, the open-end equity biased hybrid funds fell 17.74%, and the open-end bond funds fell only 4.79%. Second, the market situation. The index to measure the rise and fall of the market is the change of the benchmark. The performance of most funds changes with the market, rising and falling. A good fund is one that fits the benchmark well and maintains a stable style. Third, the fund manager's stock selection and timing ability. The contribution of fund managers is the only one that can reasonably defeat the benchmark. Fourth, the control of transaction costs. 1% per transaction. Transaction costs, which should be extracted from the fund assets. Good funds should reduce operations and maintain the interests of investors with a low turnover rate, while bad funds often conduct band operations through frequent transactions. The higher the turnover rate, the higher the transaction cost. In addition, attention should be paid to preventing moral hazard.
Question 3: What specific actions and plans will fund regulators have in the future?
In combination with recent market changes, the Fund Department of the CSRC will continue to work around promoting the healthy development of the fund market, strengthening daily supervision and consolidating the market foundation in the next few years. We will focus on the following specific work:
1. Further improve the governance level of the fund company and improve the risk control mechanism, strengthen the core competitiveness of the fund company, improve the risk prevention awareness and risk control ability of the entire industry, consolidate the foundation of industry development, and maintain the credibility of the industry.
2. Grasp the relationship between development and supervision, integrate regulatory resources, improve the operational efficiency of the comprehensive regulatory system, increase inspection efforts and implement various regulatory measures, and strengthen the supervision of fund management company governance, internal control, investment behavior, marketing and promotion.
3. Seize the market opportunity, further promote the reform of the pension security system, adjust the framework of the pension system, and improve the social pension security system; Continue to vigorously develop institutional investors, and strive to form and improve a diversified pattern of institutional investors with complementary competition.
4. Continue to prudently promote the QDII pilot, expand the scale of QFII, and study the expansion of international business of fund companies.
5. We should strengthen the sense of innovation, focus on forward-looking research, actively explore new topics, new mechanisms and new methods for the development of the fund industry, and promote product innovation, business innovation, organizational innovation and institutional innovation.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
