Some people think that A-shares will go through the same mistakes as technology shares, but others think that the profitability of enterprises can still support the bull market
Leah
Since January this year, criticism of the A-share market bubble has been heard all the time, but the A-share index is still rising, which is contrary to the adjustment momentum of the Hong Kong state-owned enterprise index. Due to different valuations, the trend of the two stock markets diverged again yesterday. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index ended up 2.18%, again approaching the 3000 point mark, and the H-share index barely ended up with a slight increase of 0.16%.
In April 1999, 72% of the securities analysts on Wall Street in the United States believed that there was a bubble in the technology network stocks, but the stock market remained strong in the following year, and the bubble finally burst in March 2000. At present, many investors question that the A-share market is repeating the mistakes of technology stocks.
As for the market situation of strong A and weak H, Deng Yixu, head of the Securities Research Department of Jinghua Mountain in Hong Kong, believes that it reflects the wait-and-see attitude of foreign investors towards H shares. "In fact, most foreign investors are worried about the regulation policies that will be introduced by mainland regulators, which will lead to a sudden decline in the A share market and adversely affect the performance of H shares." Deng Yixu said.
Even though the H-share index has been adjusted in the early stage, Deng Yixu still feels that the H-share index has room for decline, and he estimates that the H-share index will be significantly adjusted to below 8000 points. At the same time, he said that after a year of bull market, A-share has "risen too fast", while hot money is still looking for various excuses to hype.
"In the first half of this year, A-shares will face a substantial adjustment, so as to extrude irrational foam ingredients." Deng Yixu pointed out that there is 20% room for adjustment of the Shanghai Stock Index, and the level below 2500 points would be a more rational position.
However, Feng Xiaozhong, deputy general manager and investment director of Hang Seng Bank, has a different attitude. He told the First Financial Daily that "the price of A-share market is a little high, but there is no bubble. The formation of the technology stock bubble lies in the single industry of the global hot money explosion in Internet stocks. The current A-share companies, including finance, manufacturing, energy and other industries, have enough breadth and depth to reflect the prosperity of China's economy. " At the same time, he believes that the profitability of mainland enterprises is constantly improving, which can support the bull market of A-shares.
Feng Xiaozhong believed that the impetus for the A-share market to rise again still existed in 2007, such as the return of many large state-owned enterprises, the launch of stock index futures, and more importantly, the continued appreciation of the RMB. Therefore, even if there is a bubble in A-share, it is difficult to estimate the point where the index will eventually rise.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
